Review of mathematical models of Neisseria gonorrhoeae vaccine impact: Implications for vaccine development.

An effective prophylactic vaccine for prevention of Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection would have a major impact on sexual and reproductive health worldwide. Interest in developing gonorrhoea vaccines is growing due to the reported high rates of N. gonorrhoeae infections globally, and the threat of antimicrobial resistance. Several gonorrhoea vaccine candidates are currently under evaluation and various mathematical models have been used to assess the potential population-level impact a gonorrhoea vaccine may have once available. Here we review key aspects of gonorrhoea vaccine mathematical modelling studies, including model structures, populations considered, and assumptions used as well as vaccine characteristics and implementation scenarios investigated. The predicted vaccine impact varied between studies, ranging from as little as ∼17 % reduction in N. gonorrhoeae prevalence after 30 years up to 100 % reduction after 5 years. However, all studies predicted that even a partially effective gonorrhoea vaccine could have a substantial impact in reducing N. gonorrhoeae prevalence or incidence, particularly when high coverage is achieved within either important risk groups or the overall sexually active population. As expected, higher vaccine efficacy against acquisition of N. gonorrhoeae and longer duration of protection were linked to greater reductions in infections. A vaccine that alters onward transmission could also substantially reduce infections. Several gaps and research needs have been identified by researchers in the field and via this narrative literature review. For example, future modelling to inform gonorrhoea vaccine development and implementation should consider additional populations that are at high risk of N. gonorrhoeae infection, especially in low- and middle-income settings, as well as the impact of vaccination on the potential adverse sexual and reproductive health outcomes of infection. In addition, more detailed and robust epidemiological, biological, and behavioural data is needed to enable more accurate and robust modelling of gonorrhoea vaccine impact to inform future scientific and public health decision-making.

The potential impact of a vaccine on Neisseria gonorrhoeae prevalence among heterosexuals living in a high prevalence setting.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of Neisseria gonorrhoeae is under threat with the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance. Thus, there is a growing interest in the development of a gonorrhoea vaccine. We used mathematical modelling to assess the impact of a hypothetical vaccine in controlling gonorrhoea among heterosexuals living in a setting of relatively high N. gonorrhoeae prevalence (∼3 %). METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of N. gonorrhoeae transmission among 15-49-year-old heterosexuals, stratified by age and sex, and calibrated to prevalence and sexual behaviour data from South Africa as an example of a high prevalence setting for which we have data available. Using this model, we assessed the potential impact of a vaccine on N. gonorrhoeae prevalence in the entire population. We considered gonorrhoea vaccines having differing impacts on N. gonorrhoeae infection and transmission and offered to different age-groups. RESULTS: The model predicts that N. gonorrhoeae prevalence can be reduced by ∼50 % in 10 years following introduction of a vaccine if annual vaccination uptake is 10 %, vaccine efficacy against acquisition of infection is 25 % and duration of protection is 5 years, with vaccination available to the entire population of 15-49-year-olds. If only 15-24-year-olds are vaccinated, the predicted reduction in prevalence in the entire population is 25 % with equivalent vaccine characteristics and uptake. Although predicted reductions in prevalence for vaccination programmes targeting only high-activity individuals and the entire population are similar over the same period, vaccinating only high-activity individuals is more efficient as the cumulative number of vaccinations needed to reduce prevalence in the entire population by 50 % is ∼3 times lower for this programme. CONCLUSION: Provision of a gonorrhoea vaccine could lead to substantial reductions in N. gonorrhoeae prevalence in a high prevalence heterosexual setting, even with moderate annual vaccination uptake of a vaccine with partial efficacy.

A Gonococcal Vaccine Has the Potential to Rapidly Reduce the Incidence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae Infection Among Urban Men Who Have Sex With Men.

BACKGROUND: A gonococcal vaccine is urgently needed due to increasing gonorrhea incidence and emerging multidrug-resistant gonococcal strains worldwide. Men who have sex with men (MSM) have among the highest incidences of gonorrhea and may be a key target population for vaccination when available. METHODS: An individual-based, anatomical site-specific mathematical model was used to simulate Neisseria gonorrhoeae transmission in a population of 10 000 MSM. The impact of vaccination on gonorrhea prevalence was assessed. RESULTS: With a gonococcal vaccine of 100% or 50% protective efficacy, gonorrhea prevalence could be reduced by 94% or 62%, respectively, within 2 years if 30% of MSM are vaccinated on presentation for sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing. Elimination of gonorrhea is possible within 8 years with vaccines of ≥ 50% efficacy lasting 2 years, providing a booster vaccination is available every 3 years on average. A vaccine's impact may be reduced if it is not effective at all anatomical sites. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that with a vaccine of modest efficacy and an immunization strategy that targets MSM presenting for STI screening, the prevalence of gonorrhea in this population could be rapidly and substantially reduced.