Sustaining fragile gains: the need to maintain coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets for malaria control and likely implications of not doing so.

Global commitment to malaria control has greatly increased over the last decade. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have become a core intervention of national malaria control strategies and over 450 million nets were distributed in sub-Saharan Africa between 2008 and 2012. Despite the impressive gains made as a result of increased investment in to malaria control, such gains remain fragile. Existing funding commitments for LLINs in the pipeline to 2016 were collated for 40 sub-Saharan African countries. The population-based model NetCALC was used to estimate the potential LLIN coverage achievable with these commitments and identify remaining gaps, and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate likely consequences for mortality impact if these gaps remain unfilled. Overall, countries calculated a total need of 806 million LLINs for 2013-16. Current funding commitments meet just over half of this need, leaving approximately 374 million LLINs unfunded, most of which are needed to maintain coverage in 2015 and 2016. An estimated additional 938,500 child lives (uncertainty range: 559,400-1,364,200) could be saved from 2013 through 2016 with existing funding (relative to 2009 LLIN coverage taken as the 'baseline' for this analysis); if the funding gap were closed this would increase to 1,180,500 lives saved (uncertainty range: 707,000-1,718,900). Overall, the funding gap equates to approximately 242,000 avoidable malaria-attributable deaths amongst under-fives. Substantial additional resources will need to be mobilized to meet the full LLIN need of sub-Saharan countries to maintain universal coverage. Unless these resources are mobilized, the impressive gains made to date will not be sustained and tens of thousands of avoidable child deaths will occur.

Strategies for delivering insecticide-treated nets at scale for malaria control: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To synthesize findings from recent studies of strategies to deliver insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) at scale in malaria-endemic areas. METHODS: Databases were searched for studies published between January 2000 and December 2010 in which: subjects resided in areas with endemicity for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria; ITN delivery at scale was evaluated; ITN ownership among households, receipt by pregnant women and/or use among children aged < 5 years was evaluated; and the study design was an individual or cluster-randomized controlled design, nonrandomized, quasi-experimental, before-and-after, interrupted time series or cross-sectional without temporal or geographical controls. Papers describing qualitative studies, case studies, process evaluations and cost-effectiveness studies linked to an eligible paper were also included. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias checklist and GRADE criteria. Important influences on scaling up were identified and assessed across delivery strategies. FINDINGS: A total of 32 papers describing 20 African studies were reviewed. Many delivery strategies involved health sectors and retail outlets (partial subsidy), antenatal care clinics (full subsidy) and campaigns (full subsidy). Strategies achieving high ownership among households and use among children < 5 delivered ITNs free through campaigns. Costs were largely comparable across strategies; ITNs were the main cost. Cost-effectiveness estimates were most sensitive to the assumed net lifespan and leakage. Common barriers to delivery included cost, stock-outs and poor logistics. Common facilitators were staff training and supervision, cooperation across departments or ministries and stakeholder involvement. CONCLUSION: There is a broad taxonomy of strategies for delivering ITNs at scale.

From intervention to impact: modelling the potential mortality impact achievable by different long-lasting, insecticide-treated net delivery strategies.

BACKGROUND: The current target of universal access to long-lasting, insecticide-treated nets (LLIN) is 80% coverage to reduce malaria deaths by 75% by 2015. So far, campaigns have been the main channel for large-scale delivery of LLINs, however the World Health Organization has recommended that equal priority should be given to delivery via routine antenatal care (ANC) and immunization systems (EPI) to target pregnant women and children from birth. These various channels of LLIN delivery are targeted to children of different ages. Since risk of mortality varies with child age and LLIN effectiveness declines with net age, it was hypothesized that the age at which a child receives a new LLIN, and therefore the delivery channel, is important in optimizing the health impact of a net. METHODS: A simple dynamic mathematical model was developed of delivery and impact of LLINs among children under five years of age and their household members, incorporating data on age-specific malaria death rates, net use by household structure, and net efficacy over time. RESULTS: The presented analysis finds that supplementing a universal mass campaign with extra ANC delivery would achieve a 1.4 times higher mortality reduction than campaign delivery alone, reflecting that children born in the years between campaigns would otherwise have access to old nets or no nets at an age of high risk. The relative advantage of supplementary ANC delivery is still present though smaller if malaria transmission levels are lower or if there is a strong mass effect achieved by mass campaigns. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that LLIN delivery policies must take into account the age of greatest malaria risk. Emphasis should be placed on supporting routine delivery of LLINs to young children as well as campaigns.

Taking stock: provider prescribing practices in the presence and absence of ACT stock.

BACKGROUND: Globally, the monitoring of prompt and effective treatment for malaria with artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) is conducted largely through household surveys. This measure; however, provides no information on case management processes at the health facility level. The aim of this review was to assess evidence from health facility surveys on malaria prescribing practices using ACT, in the presence and absence of ACT stock, at time and place where treatment was sought. METHODS: A systematic search of published literature was conducted. Findings were collated and data extracted on proportion of patients prescribed ACT and alternative anti-malarials in the presence and absence of ACT stock. RESULTS: Of the 14 studies identified in which ACT prescription for uncomplicated malaria in the public sector was evaluated, just six, from three countries (Kenya, Uganda and Zambia), reported this in the context of ACT stock. Comparing facilities with ACT stock to facilities without stock (i) ACT prescribing was significantly higher in all six studies, increasing by a range of 21.3% in children < 5 yrs weighing ≥ 5 kg (p < 0.001; Kenya 2006) to 51.7% in children ≥ 10 kg (p < 0.001; Zambia 2006); (ii) SP prescribing decreased significantly in five studies, by a range of 14.4% (p < 0.001; Kenya 2006), to 46.3% (p < 0.001; Zambia 2006); (iii) Where quinine was a reported alternative, prescriptions decreased in five of the six studies by 0.1% (p = 1.0, Kenya 2010) to 10.2% (p < 0.001; Zambia 2006). At facilities with no ACT stock on the survey day, the proportion of febrile patients prescribed ACT was < 10% in five of the nine target groups included in the six studies, with the proportion prescribed ACT ranging from 0 to 28.4% (Uganda 2007). CONCLUSIONS: Prescriber practices vary based on ACT availability. Although ACT prescriptions increased and alternative anti-malarials prescriptions decreased in the presence of ACT stock, ACT was prescribed in the absence, and alternative anti-malarials were prescribed in the presence of, ACT. Presence of stock alone does not ensure that treatment guidelines are followed. More health facility surveys, together with qualitative research, are needed to understand the role of ACT stock-outs on provider prescribing behaviours and preferences.