Predictors of clinical trajectories of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis. An external validation of the PREDICT study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The PREDICT study recently showed that acutely decompensated (AD) patients with cirrhosis can present three different clinical phenotypes in the 90 days after admission: (1) pre-ACLF, developing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF); (2) unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), being re-admitted for AD without ACLF and (3) stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), not presenting readmission or ACLF. This study aimed to externally validate the existence of these three distinct trajectories and to identify predictors for the occurrence of each trajectory. METHODS: Baseline data, 3-month ACLF and readmission incidence and 1-year survival were analysed in a prospective cohort of patients admitted for AD. A multinomial multivariable model was used to evaluate the association between baseline features and clinical trajectories. RESULTS: Of the 311 patients enrolled, 55% met the criteria for SDC, 18% for UDC and 27% for pre-ACLF, presenting a significantly different 1-year mortality: pre-ACLF 65%, UDC 46%, SDC 21% (p < .001). The presence of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) was associated with UDC (p = .043), while the absence of ascites to SDC (p = .017). Among laboratory parameters, an increase in MELD-Na (p = .001) and C-reactive protein (p = .009) and a decrease in haemoglobin (p = .004) and albumin (p = .008) levels were associated with pre-ACLF. CONCLUSION: The present study confirms that AD patients have three different clinical trajectories with different mortality rates. Besides the severity of cirrhosis, the association with C-reactive protein supports the predominant role of systemic inflammation in ACLF pathophysiology. Finally, HE is associated with the UDC phenotype highlighting the need for better management of this complication after discharge.

Development and internal validation of a multivariable model for the prediction of the probability of 1-year readmission to the emergency department for acute alcohol intoxication.

To develop and internally validate a multivariable logistic regression model (LRM) for the prediction of the probability of 1-year readmission to the emergency department (ED) in patients with acute alcohol intoxication (AAI). We developed and internally validated the LRM on a previously analyzed retrospective cohort of 3304 patients with AAI admitted to the ED of the Sant'Orsola-Malpighi Hospital (Bologna, Italy). The benchmark LRM employed readmission to the same ED for AAI within 1 year as the binary outcome, age as a continuous predictor, and sex, alcohol use disorder, substance use disorder, at least one previous admission for trauma, mental or behavioral disease, and homelessness as the binary predictors. Optimism correction was performed using the bootstrap on 1000 samples without replacement. The benchmark LRM was gradually simplified to get the most parsimonious LRM with similar optimism-corrected overall fit, discrimination and calibration. The 1-year readmission rate was 15.7% (95% CI 14.4-16.9%). A reduced LRM based on sex, age, at least one previous admission for trauma, mental or behavioral disease, and homelessness, performed nearly as well as the benchmark LRM. The reduced LRM had the following optimism-corrected metrics: scaled Brier score 17.0%, C-statistic 0.799 (95% CI 0.778 to 0.821), calibration in the large 0.000 (95% CI - 0.099 to 0.099), calibration slope 0.985 (95% CI 0.893 to 1.088), and an acceptably accurate calibration plot. An LRM based on sex, age, at least one previous admission for trauma, mental or behavioral disease, and homelessness can be used to estimate the probability of 1-year readmission to ED for AAI. To begin proving its clinical utility, this LRM should be validated in external cohorts.

Low haemoglobin level predicts early hospital readmission in patients with cirrhosis and acute decompensation.

Background & Aims: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis present frequent hospitalisations with a relevant clinical and socio-economic impact. This study aims to characterise unscheduled readmissions up to 1-year follow-up and identify predictors of 30-day readmission after an index hospitalisation for acute decompensation (AD). Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of a prospectively collected cohort of patients admitted for AD. Laboratory and clinical data at admission and at discharge were collected. Timing and causes of unscheduled readmissions and mortality were recorded up to 1 year. Results: A total of 329 patients with AD were included in the analysis. Acute-on-chronic liver failure was diagnosed in 19% of patients at admission or developed in an additional 9% of patients during the index hospitalisation. During the 1-year follow-up, 182 patients (55%) were rehospitalised and 98 (30%) more than once. The most frequent causes of readmission were hepatic encephalopathy (36%), ascites (22%), and infection (21%). Cumulative incidence of readmission was 20% at 30 days, 39% at 90 days, and 63% at 1 year. Fifty-four patients were readmitted for emergent liver-related causes within 30 days. Early readmission was associated with a higher 1-year mortality (47 vs. 32%, p = 0.037). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that haemoglobin (Hb) ≤8.7 g/dl (hazard ratio 2.63 [95% CI 1.38-5.02], p = 0.003) and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium score (MELD-Na) >16 at discharge (hazard ratio 2.23 [95% CI 1.27-3.93], p = 0.005), were independent predictors of early readmission. In patients with MELD-Na >16 at discharge, the presence of Hb ≤8.7 g/dl doubles the risk of early rehospitalisation (44% vs. 22%, p = 0.02). Conclusion: Besides MELD-Na, a low Hb level (Hb ≤8.7 g/dl) at discharge emerged as a new risk factor for early readmission, contributing to identification of patients who require closer surveillance after discharge. Impact and Implications: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis face frequent hospitalisations. In the present study, type and causes of readmissions were analysed during 1-year follow-up in patients discharged after the index hospitalisation for an acute decompensation of the disease. Early (30-day) liver-related readmission was associated with higher 1-year mortality. The model for end-stage liver disease-sodium score and low haemoglobin at discharge were identified as independent risk factors for early readmissions. Haemoglobin emerged as a new easy-to-use parameter associated with early readmission warranting further investigation.

Relationship between Muscle Mass, Bone Density and Vascular Calcifications in Elderly People with SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the changes in organs and tissues that may make elder patients more vulnerable to acute stressors such as SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: In 80 consecutive elderly patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, we evaluated the association between the descending thoracic aorta calcium score, L1 bone density and T12 skeletal muscle density measured on the same scan by high-resolution computed tomography. RESULTS: At median regression, the ln-transformed DTA calcium score was inversely associated with L1 bone density (-0.02, 95%CI -0.04 to -0.01 ln-Agatston units for an increase of 1 HU) and with T12 muscle density (-0.03, -0.06 to -0.001 ln-Agatston units for an increase of 1 HU). At penalized logistic regression, an increase of 1 ln-Agatston unit of DTA calcium score was associated with an OR of death of 1.480 (1.022 to 2.145), one of 1 HU of bone density with an OR of 0.981 (0.966 to 0.996) and one of 1 HU of muscle density with an OR of 0.973 (0.948 to 0.999). These relationships disappeared after correction for age and age was the stronger predictor of body composition and death. CONCLUSIONS: Age has a big effect on the relationship between vascular calcifications, L1 bone density and T12 muscle density and on their relationship with the odds of dying.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: an update.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We discuss two recent controversial issues in the research field of fatty liver: the proposal to replace nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with metabolically associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) and the suggestion to extend to primary care the noninvasive testing for liver fibrosis that was developed for secondary care. RECENT FINDINGS: There is preliminary evidence that MAFLD-only patients are at greater risk of fibrosis than NAFLD-only patients. There are a large number of false positives associated with the downshift of noninvasive testing for liver fibrosis from secondary to primary care. SUMMARY: More studies are needed to compare the MAFLD and NAFLD operational definitions. Noninvasive testing of liver fibrosis also needs further evaluation before it can be used in primary care or in the general population.

Mortality and its association with chronic alcohol-related diseases in patients admitted to the emergency department for acute alcoholic intoxication: retrospective cohort study.

We assessed long-term mortality and its association with chronic alcohol-related diseases in patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) because of acute alcoholic intoxication (AAI). A retrospective cohort study was performed at the ED of Sant'Orsola-Malpighi Hospital, Bologna, Italy. 3304 patients, corresponding to 6415 admissions for AAI, who accessed the ED from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2017, were studied. The ED electronic registry system was used to assess living status on 08 May 2020 and to obtain the prespecified potential predictors, i.e., age at first admission, sex, alcohol use disorder (AUD), substance use disorder (SUD), more than 1 admission to ED for trauma, mental and behavioral disorders, neurological disorders, and cardiovascular disease. The median follow-up time was 9.3 years and the time on risk was 30,053 person years (PY) with a death rate corresponding to 4.42 (95% CI 3.74-5.26) per 1000 PY (n = 133 deaths). The death rate was higher in patients with AUD (17.30) than in those without AUD (1.98) and in those with SUD (13.58) than in those without SUD (3.80). Lastly, there was a clearly higher death rate among AUD+ SUD+ (20.89) compared to AUD-SUD-patients (1.74). At multivariable Cox regression, AUD, SUD, and liver cirrhosis were strong and independent predictors of time-to-death. Using standardized mortality ratios, a clear excess of mortality was evident for all the age bands from (40-45] to (60-65] years. Mortality is higher in AAI than in the general population and chronic alcohol-related diseases are strongly associated with it.

COVID-19-Related Death in Patients with Alcohol or Substance Use Disorders.

BACKGROUND: People with substance or alcohol use disorders (SUDs/AUDs) are likely to be more vulnerable to COVID-19 infection than the general population, but the evidence of COVID-19-related mortality in these patients is unclear. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to verify whether patients with AUD and SUD have a higher mortality rate for COVID-19-related mortality compared to the general population. METHOD: We performed a follow-up study to assess mortality in 2020 in a cohort of patients diagnosed for the first time with AUDs or SUDs at the Public Health Services in the metropolitan area of Bologna (Northern Italy) from 2009 to 2019. RESULTS: SUDs/AUDs patients present an excess mortality with respect to the general population for all causes of death and for COVID-19-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our data support the need for prevention strategies in SUDs/AUDs patients such as vaccinations.

Sarcopenia and Vitamin D Deficiency in Patients with Crohn's Disease: Pathological Conditions That Should Be Linked Together.

Sarcopenia is a prevalent condition in patients with Crohn's disease (CD), representing an independent predictor factor for the development of major postoperative complications. Thus, a proper assessment of the muscle strength, by using different validated tools, should be deemed an important step of the clinical management of these patients. Patients with CD are frequently malnourished, presenting a high prevalence of different macro- and micro-nutrient deficiencies, including that of vitamin D. The available published studies indicate that vitamin D is involved in the regulation of proliferation, differentiation, and regeneration of muscle cells. The relationship between vitamin D deficiency and sarcopenia has been extensively studied in other populations, with interesting evidence in regards to a potential role of vitamin D supplementation as a means to prevent and treat sarcopenia. The aim of this review was to find studies that linked together these pathological conditions.

More than a "monstrous obesity"! Time to overcome the "anti-fat" bias.

A 54-years-old woman complained of unintentional important body weight gain associated with abdominal bloating. For this reason, she had consulted many different diet and nutritional professionals, general practitioners and a gastroenterology specialist, but no one went beyond a simple diagnosis of "monstrous obesity". At our hospital division, based on physical examination, a computed tomography (CT) of the abdomen and pelvis was performed. It showed a voluminous intraperitoneal mass occupying the most part of the abdomen. The patient underwent laparotomy with resection of the abdomino-pelvic mass, originating from the left ovary, measuring 60 x 45 cm and weighing 46 kg. Histopathology examination revealed a tumor composed of three different areas, including a well-differentiated adenocarcinoma of intestinal-type. It is emblematic of a grotesque misdiagnosis generated by a non-comprehensive patient assessment and consequently by a too quick judgement related to the "anti-fat bias".

The Analysis of Food Intake in Patients with Cirrhosis Waiting for Liver Transplantation: A Neglected Step in the Nutritional Assessment.

Patients with cirrhosis waiting for liver transplantation (LT) frequently present a nutritional disorder, which represents an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality before and after transplantation. Thus, a proper assessment of the food intake by using different methods, such as food records, food frequency questionnaires, and 24 h recall, should be deemed an important step of the nutritional management of these patients. The available published studies indicate that the daily food intake is inadequate in the majority of waitlisted patients. These findings were confirmed by our experience, showing that the daily intake of total calories, proteins and carbohydrates was inadequate in approximately 85-95% of patients, while that of lipids and simple carbohydrates was inadequate in almost 50% of them. These data highlight the need to implement an effective educational program provided by certified nutritionists or dieticians, who should work in close collaboration with the hepatologist to provide a nutritional intervention tailored to the individual patient requirements.