Predictors of disability in the final year of life.

Disability among deceased subjects in the Duke Established Population for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE) survey was analyzed to determine the risk of becoming disabled before or during the final year of life and the predictors of this disability. The method was a comparison of the baseline characteristics of decedents who became disabled with the characteristics of decedents who were not disabled. It was found that 63% of the initially nondisabled who survived to the next interview remained able to do the basic activities of daily living without help, at least until a few months before death. Multivariate analysis showed that initial age, income, depression, and self-rated health were strong and independent predictors of becoming disabled. The findings suggest that reducing poverty, depression, and illness may reduce the risk of disability in the final year.

Predictors of outcome in nursing homes.

To develop predictors of outcome, 22 admission characteristics of 221 consecutive discharges in two nursing homes were analyzed using automatic interaction detector analysis. Length of stay was significantly predicted by level of nursing care and feeding problems in one home, and by similar variables in the other home. Type of discharge was significantly predicted by receiving rehabilitation therapy, toileting problems, being on welfare, and feeding problems in one home, and by similar variables in the other. Results and uses of the findings are discussed in this article.

Social gerontology: an essential part of the "backbone".

This paper will discuss some of the major topics which are essential to a core course in Social Gerontology and some suggestions for how best to help students understand these topics. It is assumed that Social Gerontology is an essential part of the "backbone of gerontology."

Predictors of function among the old-old: a 10-year follow-up.

A 10-year follow-up of 297 survivors from a community study of the aged found there was little or no decline in social and economic function and only moderate declines in mental, physical, and activities-of-daily-living function; demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were usually strong predictors of decline in function; and impairment in one type of function often predicted greater decline in other types of function. Mental impairment was an especially strong predictor of social decline, but not vice versa.

Determinants and consequences of retirement among men of different races and economic levels.

Data from two national longitudinal studies of older workers were examined in order to compare the determinants and consequences of retirement for white and black men, and for poverty, marginal, and upper economic level men. The number of categories important in determining retirement was greater for white men than for black men and increased with increase in economic level. Retirement was found to have few consequences, being important mainly with respect to health and economic matters. Blacks and poverty level men were minimally affected by retirement, the impact of retirement probably being somewhat ameliorated by age-determined income maintenance programs and subsidies. Men at the marginal economic level were affected most adversely.

Consequences of retirement.

Six longitudinal data sets were used to examine the consequences of retirement controlling for preretirement characteristics. Results show (a) about one-half to three-fourths of income differences between retired and working men was caused by retirement; (b) little, if any, of the health differences are caused by retirement; (c) there are few effects of retirement on social activity; and (d) there are few effects on attitudes such as life satisfaction and happiness. Early retirement, however, has stronger effects than retirement at normal ages. The results show that retirement has different effects depending on type of outcome and timing of retirement.

Predictors of retirement.

Predictors of retirement among men were analyzed using data from seven longitudinal studies, multiple definitions of retirement, multivariate analyses, and unbiased statistical techniques. Results show that the predictors of retirement vary depending on how retirement is defined. The strongest predictors of objective retirement among men over age 65 (i.e., employed less than full-time and receiving a pension) are structural factors such as socioeconomic status and job characteristics. The strongest predictors of early retirement (i.e., retiring before age 65) and of age at retirement include both structural factors and subjective factors, characteristics are more important predictors than all the others combined.