Greening the Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from emergy evaluation of China's provincial trade with ASEAN countries.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a central policy within China's regional development and foreign trade strategy. Traditional trade has typically depended on economic valuation of resources, while the embedded environmental value is rarely considered. This situation exists in most BRI trade evaluations. To address BRI environmental sustainability issues, we consider the role of pivotal Chinese provinces and their key trade partners (ASEAN countries) as an illustration for the environmental value of resource exchanges. Emergy accounting is used as the valuation tool for a sample period of seventeen years. Key results include: (1) Emergy valuations show sustainability of sample provinces decreased over time; (2) ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam play significant resource roles for provincial economic systems; (3) Diverse trends in trade between pivotal provinces and ASEAN countries resulted in an unbalanced trade structure from trade. Policy implications are proposed to promote a more globally sustainable and fair trade using BRI as an established trade policy.

Modeling place-based nature-based solutions to promote urban carbon neutrality.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are recognized as widely available and cost-effective mechanisms for sequestering carbon and offsetting carbon emissions. Realistic NbS implementations for carbon neutrality need to be effective at the global level and also appropriate for the socio-economic and physical conditions prevailing at the local level. This paper presents a framework that can help stakeholders identify demands, locations, and types of NbS interventions that could maximize NbS benefits at the local scale. Key processes in the framework include (1) interpolating carbon emissions data at larger spatial scales to high-resolution cells, using land use and socio-economic data; (2) assessing NbS effects on carbon reduction and their location-related suitability, through qualitative literature review, and (3) spatially allocating and coupling multiple NbS interventions to land use cells. The system was tested in Stockholm, Sweden. The findings show that the urban center should be allocated with combinations of improving access to green spaces and streetscapes, while the rural and suburban areas should prioritize preserving and utilizing natural areas. Our proposed method framework can help planners better select target locations for intended risk/hazard-mitigating interventions.

Nature-based solutions to global environmental challenges.

Nature-based solutions (NBS) supply many ecosystem services key to wellbeing. There is evidence that several ecosystems that serve as NBS (e.g., forests) are being threatened by land use and climate change. Urban expansion and agriculture intensification is imposing an extensive degradation in several ecosystems, increasing human vulnerability to climate change-related events. Therefore, it is key to rethink how to develop strategies that minimize these effects. Halt ecosystem degradation and establishing NBS in areas of high human pressure (e.g., urban and agriculture) is essential to reduce environmental impacts. Numerous NBS can be helpful in agriculture (e.g., retention of crop residues/mulching) to reduce erosion or diffuse pollution or in urban areas (e.g., urban green spaces) to mitigate urban heat island effects or floods. Although these measures are important, it is crucial to raise awareness among the stakeholders, assess case by case and minimize the tradeoffs associated with the NBS application (e.g., area needed). Overall, NBS are vital in addressing present and future global environmental challenges.

Water-related conflict and cooperation events worldwide: A new dataset on historical and change trends with potential drivers.

Despite strong interest and conflict research spanning multiple disciplines, connections between water flows and conflicts remain unclear, due to incomplete datasets on water-related conflict-cooperation events and poor understanding of socioeconomic and biophysical causes of such conflicts. The dataset on water-related conflict-cooperation events compiled in this study extends to 2019, updating previous datasets that covered only up to 2008, yielding important new insights on cooperation-conflict trends. Global and regional trends were analyzed using the new events dataset, together with changes in hydroclimatic variables and population density. The analysis revealed that water-related cooperation was far more common than conflicts across all regions, in both drier and wetter climates, indicating that abundance and lack of water can both promote cooperation. However, conflict events were more common in drier climates where water is scarcer. This cooperation-conflict balance shifted in the 2000s, with conflict events increasing, to outnumber cooperation events in 2017. The main shift occurred in Africa and Asia, where increased conflicts in Africa coincided with a prolonged period of below-average precipitation and severe drought, while the shift in Asia coincided with increased evapotranspiration caused by human activities and increased population density. Differences between regions were confirmed by event descriptions, with events in Africa relating to water access and farmer-herder conflicts, and events in Asia relating to irrigation and dam construction. These differences highlight the need for regional-scale analysis of water-related conflict-cooperation trends and pathways. With climate change and human activities expected to increase, the increasing trend in conflict events could persist, with water resources becoming a more frequent cause of future conflict. Identifying these complex cooperation-conflict changes is vital in determining future actions required to reduce conflict events and promote cooperation on water.

The Russia-Ukraine war disproportionately threatens the nutrition security of developing countries.

While the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatens global nutrition security, the magnitude and extent of its impact remain underexamined. Here we show that, with the lowest level of war duration, severity, sanction, and countries involved, the direct and indirect impacts of the war and sanctions could newly place 67.3 million people (roughly equals the total population of France) in undernourishment and 316.7 million people (roughly equals the total population of Bangladesh and Russia) suffering from extreme national food insecurity. Approximately 95% of the affected population are from developing countries, highlighting the vulnerability of food supply in these countries. Both the undernourished population and its inequality across countries will substantially grow, if war duration and severity increase. If the war is prolonged to early 2024, future agricultural growth cannot fully offset the negative impacts, and global hunger will still very likely exacerbate. We conclude that targeted measures should be placed in developing countries and their vulnerable populations to reconstruct a just, healthy, and environmentally sustainable food system. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43621-022-00112-8.

What determines city's resilience against epidemic outbreak: evidence from China's COVID-19 experience.

By employing the city-level data from China during the spring of 2020, this study investigates the relationship between city-level resilience against the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemics and its affecting factors, including the inflow risk pressure of COVID-19 virus (population inflow from the epicenter), city agglomeration characteristics (urban population density and city size), healthcare resource adequacy, among others. The results reveal that, while managing COVID-19 inflow risk pressure plays a critical role in the city's pandemic disaster resilience, city agglomeration characteristics also matters. To be exact, we find that large and high-density cities with high inter and intra-city mobility flows have more difficulties in containing the epidemic spread, but improving healthcare infrastructure adequacy and urban governance capacity can increase time efficacy of pandemic control and then improve the city's resilience against pandemic. Although our analysis is based on the performance of Chinese cities in the case of COVID-19, the research framework can be applied in understanding COVID-19 control performance of cities in other countries and the findings can be useful for improving health-related urban resilience and sustainability.

Understanding interactions between urban development policies and GHG emissions: A case study in Stockholm Region.

Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social-ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social-ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.