RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common malignant tumor, and liver metastasis is one of the main recurrence and metastasis modes that seriously affect patients' survival rate and quality of life. Indicators such as albumin bilirubin (ALBI) score, liver function index, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) have shown some potential in the prediction of liver metastasis but have not been fully explored. AIM: To evaluate its predictive value for liver metastasis of CRC by conducting the combined analysis of ALBI, liver function index, and CEA, and to provide a more accurate liver metastasis risk assessment tool for clinical treatment guidance. METHODS: This study retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with CRC who received surgical treatment in our hospital from January 2018 to July 2023 and were followed up for 24 months. According to the follow-up results, the enrolled patients were divided into a liver metastasis group and a nonliver metastasis group and randomly divided into a modeling group and a verification group at a ratio of 2:1. The risk factors for liver metastasis in patients with CRC were analyzed, a prediction model was constructed by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, internal validation was performed by the bootstrap method, the reliability of the prediction model was evaluated by subject-work characteristic curves, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves, and a column graph was drawn to show the prediction results. RESULTS: Of 130 patients were enrolled in the modeling group and 65 patients were enrolled in the verification group out of the 195 patients with CRC who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Through LASSO regression variable screening and logistic regression analysis. The ALBI score, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and CEA were found to be independent predictors of liver metastases in CRC patients [odds ratio (OR) = 8.062, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.545-25.540], (OR = 1.037, 95%CI: 1.004-1.071) and (OR = 1.025, 95%CI: 1.008-1.043). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the combined prediction of CRLM in the modeling group was 0.921, with a sensitivity of 78.0% and a specificity of 95.0%. The H-index was 0.921, and the H-L fit curve had χ2 = 0.851, a P value of 0.654, and a slope of the calibration curve approaching 1. This indicates that the model is extremely accurate, and the clinical decision curve demonstrates that it can be applied effectively in the real world. We conducted internal verification of one thousand resamplings of the modeling group data using the bootstrap method. The AUC was 0.913, while the accuracy was 0.869 and the kappa consistency was 0.709. The combination prediction of liver metastasis in patients with CRC in the verification group had an AUC of 0.918, sensitivity of 85.0%, specificity of 95.6%, C-index of 0.918, and an H-L fitting curve with χ 2 = 0.586, P = 0.746. CONCLUSION: The ALBI score, ALT level, and CEA level have a certain value in predicting liver metastasis in patients with CRC. These three criteria exhibit a high level of efficacy in forecasting liver metastases in patients diagnosed with CRC. The risk prediction model developed in this work shows great potential for practical application.
