Modelling effectiveness of COVID-19 pandemic control policies using an Area-based SEIR model with consideration of infection during interzonal travel.

This paper studies the effectiveness of several pandemic restriction measures adopted in Singapore during the COVID-19 outbreak. To this end, the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model widely used to describe the dynamic process of epidemic propagation is extended to an area-based SEIR model with the consideration of exposure to infections during commute and quarantine. The proposed model considers infections within areas and infections occurred during the commute of individuals. A case study of the Singapore MRT system is presented to show the effectiveness of pandemic restriction policies implemented in Singapore, namely social distancing, work shift and Circuit Breaker (CB) and phase advisories. A long-term investigation of COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore is performed, and the disease transmission dynamics in 2020-2021 (which covers the first wave and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore) is modelled.

Increased Serum Hyaluronic Acid and Heparan Sulfate in Dengue Fever: Association with Plasma Leakage and Disease Severity.

Plasma leakage is a major pathogenic mechanism of severe dengue, but the etiology remains unclear. The association between endothelial glycocalyx integrity and vascular permeability in older adults with dengue has not been evaluated. A prospective cohort study of adults with undifferentiated fever screened for dengue by RT-PCR or NS1 antigen testing was performed. Patients were assessed daily while symptomatic and at convalescence. Serum hyaluronic acid (HA), heparan sulfate (HS) and selected cytokines (TNF-α, IL-6, IL-10) were measured on enrollment and convalescence. Patients were diagnosed as dengue fever (DF, n = 30), dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, n = 20) and non-dengue (ND) febrile illness (n = 11). Acute HA and HS levels were significantly higher in all dengue patients compared to ND (p = 0.0033 and p = 0.0441 respectively), but not different between DF and DHF (p = 0.3426 and p = 0.9180 respectively). Enrolment HA inversely correlated with serum albumin, protein and platelets in all dengue and DHF (p < 0.05). HA and HS in all dengue patients decreased significantly at convalescence. Serum IL-10 was significantly associated with HA in all dengue patients (p = 0.002). Serum HA and HS levels were increased in adult dengue and HA was associated with markers of disease severity. Endothelial glycocalyx damage may have a role in vascular leakage in dengue.