An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi.

Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.

Does contract farming arrangement improve smallholder tobacco productivity? Evidence from Zimbabwe.

Contract Farming Arrangements (CFA) can be viewed as a pro-active response to lack of reliable markets and steeply rising input prices. CFA proponents argue that CFA can enhance technical efficiency of tobacco farming and productivity. Thus, in this study, the paper interrogates the effect of CFA on tobacco productivity in southern Africa: Hurungwe district of Zimbabwe. The study controls for both observable and unobservable factors, like age, education, and ability to use information-unknown to the researchers, explaining farmers decision to participate in CFA. The study uses the Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model, which also acts as a robust check for the Propensity Score Matching techniques as it studies both observable and unobservable factors influencing CFA participation. Based on the ESR model, this study finds that CFA improves tobacco productivity by 39%. Nonetheless, CFA is labour-intensive. Hence, women and the elderly are less likely to participate in CFA, suggesting the need to develop gender-sensitive labour-saving technologies. Even though tobacco products kill their users, we would like to explore whether CFA can make farming more productive or not. We hypothesize that if tobacco farming would be more productive, then perhaps farmers will have enough money to buy food so they can be healthier even if the tobacco leaves, they grow can kill people elsewhere. Thus, these results inform CFA-related policies that improve smallholder tobacco productivity in Southern Africa. With existing tobacco controls, these results are equally valid to other cash crops where most developing economies anticipate the majority resource-constrained smallholder farmers to shift their production systems entirely away from tobacco in the immediate future.