Cost-effectiveness of non-invasive methods for assessment and monitoring of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease: systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Liver biopsy is the reference standard for diagnosing the extent of fibrosis in chronic liver disease; however, it is invasive, with the potential for serious complications. Alternatives to biopsy include non-invasive liver tests (NILTs); however, the cost-effectiveness of these needs to be established. OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of NILTs in patients with chronic liver disease. DATA SOURCES: We searched various databases from 1998 to April 2012, recent conference proceedings and reference lists. METHODS: We included studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of NILTs using liver biopsy as the reference standard. Diagnostic studies were assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Meta-analysis was conducted using the bivariate random-effects model with correlation between sensitivity and specificity (whenever possible). Decision models were used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the NILTs. Expected costs were estimated using a NHS perspective and health outcomes were measured as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Markov models were developed to estimate long-term costs and QALYs following testing, and antiviral treatment where indicated, for chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and chronic hepatitis C (HCV). NILTs were compared with each other, sequential testing strategies, biopsy and strategies including no testing. For alcoholic liver disease (ALD), we assessed the cost-effectiveness of NILTs in the context of potentially increasing abstinence from alcohol. Owing to a lack of data and treatments specifically for fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), the analysis was limited to an incremental cost per correct diagnosis. An analysis of NILTs to identify patients with cirrhosis for increased monitoring was also conducted. RESULTS: Given a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY, treating everyone with HCV without prior testing was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £9204. This was robust in most sensitivity analyses but sensitive to the extent of treatment benefit for patients with mild fibrosis. For HBV [hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative)] this strategy had an ICER of £28,137, which was cost-effective only if the upper bound of the standard UK cost-effectiveness threshold range (£30,000) is acceptable. For HBeAg-positive disease, two NILTs applied sequentially (hyaluronic acid and magnetic resonance elastography) were cost-effective at a £20,000 threshold (ICER: £19,612); however, the results were highly uncertain, with several test strategies having similar expected outcomes and costs. For patients with ALD, liver biopsy was the cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of £822. LIMITATIONS: A substantial number of tests had only one study from which diagnostic accuracy was derived; therefore, there is a high risk of bias. Most NILTs did not have validated cut-offs for diagnosis of specific fibrosis stages. The findings of the ALD model were dependent on assuptions about abstinence rates assumptions and the modelling approach for NAFLD was hindered by the lack of evidence on clinically effective treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Treating everyone without NILTs is cost-effective for patients with HCV, but only for HBeAg-negative if the higher cost-effectiveness threshold is appropriate. For HBeAg-positive, two NILTs applied sequentially were cost-effective but highly uncertain. Further evidence for treatment effectiveness is required for ALD and NAFLD. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001561. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Inflammation-based scores do not predict post-transplant recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients within Milan criteria.

Increased preoperative inflammation scores, such as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and inflammation-based index (IBI) have been related to post-transplant HCC recurrence. We evaluated the association between inflammation-based scores (NLR, PLR, IBI) and post-LT HCC recurrence as well as tumor necrosis after transarterial embolization. 150 consecutive patients who underwent transplantation for HCC within the Milan criteria between 1996 and 2010 were included; data regarding inflammatory markers, patient and tumor characteristics were analyzed. NLR, PLR, and IBI were not significantly associated with post-LT HCC recurrence or worse overall survival. Increased NLR and PLR were associated with complete tumor necrosis in the subset of patients who received preoperative transarterial embolization (P < 0.05). Cox regression analysis revealed that absence of neoadjuvant transarterial therapy (OR = 4.33, 95% CI = 1.28-14.64; P = 0.02) and no fulfillment of the Milan criteria in the explanted liver (OR = 3.34, 95% CI = 1.08-10.35; P = 0.04) were independently associated with post-LT HCC recurrence inflammation-based scores did not predict HCC recurrence post-LT in our group of patients. NLR and PLR were associated with better response to TAE, as this was recorded histologically in the explanted liver. Histological fulfillment of the Milan criteria and absence of neoadjuvant transarterial treatment were significantly associated with post-LT HCC recurrence.

Cost-effectiveness of noninvasive liver fibrosis tests for treatment decisions in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

UNLABELLED: The cost-effectiveness of noninvasive tests (NITs) as alternatives to liver biopsy is unknown. We compared the cost-effectiveness of using NITs to inform treatment decisions in adult patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to calculate the diagnostic accuracy of various NITs using a bivariate random-effects model. We constructed a probabilistic decision analytical model to estimate health care costs and outcomes (quality-adjusted life-years; QALYs) using data from the meta-analysis, literature, and national UK data. We compared the cost-effectiveness of four treatment strategies: testing with NITs and treating patients with fibrosis stage≥F2; testing with liver biopsy and treating patients with ≥F2; treat none; and treat all irrespective of fibrosis. We compared all NITs and tested the cost-effectiveness using current triple therapy with boceprevir or telaprevir, but also modeled new, more-potent antivirals. Treating all patients without any previous NIT was the most effective strategy and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £9,204 per additional QALY gained. The exploratory analysis of currently licensed sofosbuvir treatment regimens found that treat all was cost-effective, compared to using an NIT to decide on treatment, with an ICER of £16,028 per QALY gained. The exploratory analysis to assess the possible effect on results of new treatments, found that if SVR rates increased to >90% for genotypes 1-4, the incremental treatment cost threshold for the "treat all" strategy to remain the most cost-effective strategy would be £37,500. Above this threshold, the most cost-effective option would be noninvasive testing with magnetic resonance elastography (ICER=£9,189). CONCLUSIONS: Treating all adult patients with CHC, irrespective of fibrosis stage, is the most cost-effective strategy with currently available drugs in developed countries.

Prognosis and treatment of patients with acute alcoholic hepatitis.

Despite alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is the most acute manifestation of alcohol-related liver disease, its treatment remains controversial. Corticosteroids, given either as monotherapy or together with N-acetylecysteine, have been associated with a moderate short-term survival benefit in patients with severe disease. The Maddrey's discriminant function; Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score; age, bilirubin, INR and creatinine score; and the Model for end-stage liver disease have been proposed for stratifying prognosis in AH enabling selection of the patients to treat. Definition of treatment non-responders using the Lille model after 7 days of therapy may prevent a detrimental impact of prolonged corticosteroids. Pentoxifylline is an effective alternative reducing the occurrence of hepatorenal syndrome. Emerging evidence supports use of liver transplantation in a strictly selected subset of corticosteroid non-responders.