RESUMO
The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) is a recently signed protocol by the conference of the parties (COP 15) with an aim to protect biodiversity from risks imposed by biological threats such as invasive alien species (IAS). The present work is an effort to meet target 6 of GBF which directly deals with IAS by assessing the current and future distribution of Ageratum species in regions of the Eastern Ghats of India. Prediction of Ageratum distribution was done based on greenhouse gas emission levels, namely RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 for the climatic years 2030, 2050 and 2080. Of a total of 23 environmental parameters (19 bioclimatic, 1 land use land cover (LULC) and 3 topographic) seven were selected for species distribution modeling (SDM) considering value inflation factor (VIF) scores <3 by using maximum entropy. In the current climatic scenario, 40.09% of the geographical area (TGA) is covered by Ageratum species which will reach 76.51%, 77.44%, 82.58% for RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 respectively by the end of 2100. Both the AUC value (0.884) and Jackknife test have shown a good model performance. The Eastern Ghats, being a biodiversity-rich zone, needs efficient conservation and management strategies to decrease the extent of invaded areas to maximize biodiversity returns.
