RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Colorectal anastomotic leakage (CAL), a severe postoperative complication, is associated with high morbidity, hospital readmission, and overall healthcare costs. Early detection of CAL remains a challenge in clinical practice. However, some decision models have been developed to increase the diagnostic accuracy of this event. AIM: To develop a score based on easily accessible variables to detect CAL early. METHODS: Based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method, a predictive classification system was developed [Early ColoRectAL Leakage (E-CRALL) score] from a prospective observational, single center cohort, carried out in a colorectal division from a non-academic hospital. The score performance and CAL threshold from postoperative day (POD) 3 to POD5 were estimated. Based on a precise analytical decision model, the standard clinical practice was compared with the E-CRALL adoption on POD3, POD4, or POD5. A cost-minimization analysis was conducted, on the assumption that all alternatives delivered similar health-related effects. RESULTS: In this study, 396 patients who underwent colorectal resection surgery with anastomosis, and 6.3% (n = 25) developed CAL. Most of the patients who developed CAL (n = 23; 92%) were diagnosed during the first hospital admission, with a median time of diagnosis of 9.0 ± 6.8 d. From POD3 to POD5, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the E-CRALL score was 0.82, 0.84, and 0.95, respectively. On POD5, if a threshold of 8.29 was chosen, 87.4% of anastomotic failures were identified with E-CRALL adoption. Additionally, score usage could anticipate CAL diagnosis in an average of 5.2 d and 4.1 d, if used on POD3 and POD5, respectively. Regardless of score adoption, episode comprehensive costs were markedly greater (up to four times) in patients who developed CAL in comparison with patients who did not develop CAL. Nonetheless, the use of the E-CRALL warning score was associated with cost savings of 421442.20, with most (92.9%) of the savings from patients who did not develop CAL. CONCLUSION: The E-CRALL score is an accessible tool to predict CAL at an early timepoint. Additionally, E-CRALL can reduce overall healthcare costs, mainly in the reduction of hospital costs, independent of whether a patient developed CAL.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Colorectal anastomotic leakage (CAL) is one of the most dreaded complications after colorectal surgery, with an incidence that can be as high as 27%. This event is associated with increased morbidity and mortality; therefore, its early diagnosis is crucial to reduce clinical consequences and costs. Some biomarkers have been suggested as laboratory tools for the diagnosis of CAL. AIM: To assess the usefulness of plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) and calprotectin (CLP) as early predictors of CAL. METHODS: A prospective monocentric observational study was conducted including patients who underwent colorectal resection with anastomosis, from March 2017 to August 2019. Patients were divided into three groups: G1 - no complications; G2 - complications not related to CAL; and G3 - CAL. Five biomarkers were measured and analyzed in the first 5 postoperative days (PODs), namely white blood cell (WBC) count, eosinophil cell count (ECC), CRP, CLP, and procalcitonin (PCT). Clinical criteria, such as abdominal pain and clinical condition, were also assessed. The correlation between biomarkers and CAL was evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to compare the accuracy of these biomarkers as predictors of CAL, and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC), specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) during this period were estimated. RESULTS: In total, 25 of 396 patients developed CAL (6.3%), and the mean time for this diagnosis was 9.0 ± 6.8 d. Some operative characteristics, such as surgical approach, blood loss, intraoperative complications, and duration of the procedure, were notably related to the development of CAL. The length of hospital stay was markedly higher in the group that developed CAL compared with the group with complications other than CAL and the group with no complications (median of 21 d vs 13 d and 7 d respectively; P < 0.001). For abdominal pain, the best predictive performance was on POD4 and POD5, with the largest AUROC of 0.84 on POD4. Worsening of the clinical condition was associated with the diagnosis of CAL, presenting a higher predictive effect on POD5, with an AUROC of 0.9. WBC and ECC showed better predictive effects on POD5 (AUROC = 0.62 and 0.7, respectively). Those markers also presented a high NPV (94%-98%). PCT had the best predictive effect on POD5 (AUROC = 0.61), although it presented low accuracy. However, this biomarker revealed a high NPV on POD3, POD4, and POD5 (96%, 95%, and 96%, respectively). The mean CRP value on POD5 was significantly higher in the group that developed CAL compared with the group without complications (195.5 ± 139.9 mg/L vs 59.5 ± 43.4 mg/L; P < 0.00001). On POD5, CRP had a NPV of 98%. The mean CLP value on POD3 was significantly higher in G3 compared with G1 (5.26 ± 3.58 µg/mL vs 11.52 ± 6.81 µg/mL; P < 0.00005). On POD3, the combination of CLP and CRP values showed a high diagnostic accuracy (AUROC = 0.82), providing a 5.2 d reduction in the time to CAL diagnosis. CONCLUSION: CRP and CLP are moderate predictors of CAL. However, the combination of these biomarkers presents an increased diagnostic accuracy, potentially decreasing the time to CAL diagnosis.
