Evaluating sources of bias in pedigree-based estimates of breeding population size.

Applications of genetic-based estimates of population size are expanding, especially for species for which traditional demographic estimation methods are intractable due to the rarity of adult encounters. Estimates of breeding population size (NS ) are particularly amenable to genetic-based approaches as the parameter can be estimated using pedigrees reconstructed from genetic data gathered from discrete juvenile cohorts, therefore eliminating the need to sample adults in the population. However, a critical evaluation of how genotyping and sampling effort influence bias in pedigree reconstruction, and how these biases subsequently influence estimates of NS , is needed to evaluate the efficacy of the approach under a range of scenarios. We simulated a model system to understand the interactive effects of genotyping and sampling effort on error in genetic pedigrees reconstructed from the program COLONY. We then evaluated how errors in pedigree reconstruction influenced bias and precision in estimates of NS using three different rarefaction estimators. Results indicated that pedigree error can be minimal when adequate genetic data are available, such as when juvenile sample sizes are large and/or individuals are genotyped at many informative loci. However, even in cases for which data are limited, using results of the simulation analysis to understand the magnitude and sources of bias in reconstructed pedigrees can still be informative when estimating NS . We applied results of the simulation analysis to evaluate N ̂ $$ \hat{N} $$ S for a population of federally endangered Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) in the Delaware River, USA. Our results indicated that NS is likely to be three orders of magnitude lower compared with historic breeding population sizes, which is a considerable advancement in our understanding of the population status of Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River. Our analyses are broadly applicable in the design and interpretation of studies seeking to estimate NS and can help to guide conservation decisions when ecological uncertainty is high. The utility of these results is expected to grow as rapid advances in genetic technologies increase the popularity of genetic population monitoring and estimation.

Comparative migration ecology of striped bass and Atlantic sturgeon in the US Southern mid-Atlantic bight flyway.

Seasonal migrations are key to the production and persistence of marine fish populations but movements within shelf migration corridors or, "flyways", are poorly known. Atlantic sturgeon and striped bass, two critical anadromous species, are known for their extensive migrations along the US Mid-Atlantic Bight. Seasonal patterns of habitat selection have been described within spawning rivers, estuaries,and shelf foraging habitats, but information on the location and timing of key coastal migrations is limited. Using a gradient-based array of acoustic telemetry receivers, we compared the seasonal incidence and movement behavior of these species in the near-shelf region of Maryland, USA. Atlantic sturgeon incidence was highest in the spring and fall and tended to be biased toward shallow regions, while striped bass had increased presence during spring and winter months and selected deeper waters. Incidence was transient (mean = ~2 d) for both species with a pattern of increased residency (>2 d) during autumn and winter, particularly for striped bass, with many individuals exhibiting prolonged presence on the outer shelf during winter. Flyways also differed spatially between northern and southern migrations for both species and were related to temperature: striped bass were more likely to occur in cool conditions while Atlantic sturgeon preferred warmer temperatures. Observed timing and spatial distribution within the Mid-Atlantic flyway were dynamic between years and sensitive to climate variables. As shelf ecosystems come under increasing maritime development, gridded telemetry designs represent a feasible approach to provide impact responses within key marine flyways like those that occur within the US Mid-Atlantic Bight.