Nigerians in poverty consume little wheat and wheat self-sufficiency programmes will not protect them from price shocks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has prompted calls for resource diversification and wheat self-sufficiency programmes in import-dependent regions. Here we show that this approach would have minimal impact on poor Nigerians as wheat constitutes only 4% of their total food consumption and 8% of their starchy staple consumption. In contrast, millets, rice, cassava and tubers are ten times more important-highlighting the need for careful consideration of country-context consumption patterns in response to external food system shocks.