Spatial models with covariates improve estimates of peat depth in blanket peatlands.

Peatlands are spatially heterogeneous ecosystems that develop due to a complex set of autogenic physical and biogeochemical processes and allogenic factors such as the climate and topography. They are significant stocks of global soil carbon, and therefore predicting the depth of peatlands is an important part of establishing an accurate assessment of their magnitude. Yet there have been few attempts to account for both internal and external processes when predicting the depth of peatlands. Using blanket peatlands in Great Britain as a case study, we compare a linear and geostatistical (spatial) model and several sets of covariates applicable for peatlands around the world that have developed over hilly or undulating terrain. We hypothesized that the spatial model would act as a proxy for the autogenic processes in peatlands that can mediate the accumulation of peat on plateaus or shallow slopes. Our findings show that the spatial model performs better than the linear model in all cases-root mean square errors (RMSE) are lower, and 95% prediction intervals are narrower. In support of our hypothesis, the spatial model also better predicts the deeper areas of peat, and we show that its predictive performance in areas of deep peat is dependent on depth observations being spatially autocorrelated. Where they are not, the spatial model performs only slightly better than the linear model. As a result, we recommend that practitioners carrying out depth surveys fully account for the variation of topographic features in prediction locations, and that sampling approach adopted enables observations to be spatially autocorrelated.

Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records.

Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. (14)C or (10)Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40-100 years, and 120-140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation.

Restoration of blanket peatlands.

There is concern that ecosystem services provided by blanket peatlands have come under threat due to increasing degradation. Blanket peatlands are subject to a wide range of drivers of degradation and are topographically variable. As a result, many degradation forms can develop, including those resulting from eroding artificial drainage, incising gullies and areas of bare peat. Many degraded blanket peatlands have undergone restoration measures since the turn of the century. However, there has been little formal communication of the techniques used and their success. Using practitioner knowledge and a review of the available literature, this paper discusses the methodologies used for restoring sloping blanket peatlands. It then considers current understanding of the impact of restoration on blanket peatland ecosystem services. There is a paucity of research investigating impacts of several common restoration techniques and much more is needed if informed management decisions are to be made and funding is to be appropriately spent. Where data are available we find that restoration is largely beneficial to many ecosystem services, with improvements being observed in water quality and ecology. However, the same restoration technique does not always result in the same outcomes in all locations. The difference in response is predominantly due to the spatial and temporal heterogeneity inherent in all blanket peatlands. Peatland practitioners must take this variability into account when designing restoration strategies and monitoring impact.