Exploring unique dynamics in a predator-prey model with generalist predator and group defense in prey.

In the current paper, we consider a predator-prey model where the predator is modeled as a generalist using a modified Leslie-Gower scheme, and the prey exhibits group defense via a generalized response. We show that the model could exhibit finite-time blow-up, contrary to the current literature [Patra et al., Eur. Phys. J. Plus 137(1), 28 (2022)]. We also propose a new concept via which the predator population blows up in finite time, while the prey population quenches in finite time; that is, the time derivative of the solution to the prey equation will grow to infinitely large values in certain norms, at a finite time, while the solution itself remains bounded. The blow-up and quenching times are proved to be one and the same. Our analysis is complemented by numerical findings. This includes a numerical description of the basin of attraction for large data blow-up solutions, as well as several rich bifurcations leading to multiple limit cycles, both in co-dimension one and two. The group defense exponent p is seen to significantly affect the basin of attraction. Last, we posit a delayed version of the model with globally existing solutions for any initial data. Both the ordinary differential equation model and the spatially explicit partial differential equation models are explored.

Stability and bifurcation analysis of a two-patch model with the Allee effect and dispersal.

In the current manuscript, a two-patch model with the Allee effect and nonlinear dispersal is presented. We study both the ordinary differential equation (ODE) case and the partial differential equation (PDE) case here. In the ODE model, the stability of the equilibrium points and the existence of saddle-node bifurcation are discussed. The phase diagram and bifurcation curve of our model are also given as a results of numerical simulation. Besides, the corresponding linear dispersal case is also presented. We show that, when the Allee effect is large, high intensity of linear dispersal is not favorable to the persistence of the species. We further show when the Allee effect is large, nonlinear diffusion is more beneficial to the survival of the population than linear diffusion. Moreover, the results of the PDE model extend our findings from discrete patches to continuous patches.

The effect of "fear" on two species competition.

Non-consumptive effects such as fear of depredation, can strongly influence predator-prey dynamics. There are several ecological and social motivations for these effects in competitive systems as well. In this work we consider the classic two species ODE and PDE Lotka-Volterra competition models, where one of the competitors is "fearful" of the other. We find that the presence of fear can have several interesting dynamical effects on the classical competitive scenarios. Notably, for fear levels in certain regimes, we show novel bi-stability dynamics. Furthermore, in the spatially explicit setting, the effects of several spatially heterogeneous fear functions are investigated. In particular, we show that under certain integral restrictions on the fear function, a weak competition type situation can change to competitive exclusion. Applications of these results to ecological as well as sociopolitical settings are discussed, that connect to the "landscape of fear" (LOF) concept in ecology.

A Gender-Selective Harvesting Strategy: Weak Allee Effects and a Non-hyperbolic Extinction Boundary.

Recently a gender-selective harvesting strategy has been proposed for possible control of aquatic invasive species, wherein females of the invasive species are harvested, whilst stocking the males (abbreviated as FHMS strategy) (Lyu et al. in Nat Resour Model 33(2):e12252, 2020). We consider the FHMS strategy with a weak Allee effect, and show that its extinction boundary need not be hyperbolic. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first example of a non-hyperbolic extinction boundary in two-compartment mating models structured by sex. The model possesses a rich dynamical structure, with several local co-dimension one bifurcations occurring. We also show the occurrence of a global homoclinic bifurcation, which has applicability for large scale strategic bio-control.

Exploring the Dynamics of Virulent and Avirulent Aphids: A Case for a 'Within Plant' Refuge.

The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is an invasive pest that can cause severe yield loss to soybeans in the North Central United States. A tactic to counter this pest is the use of aphid-resistant soybean varieties. However, the frequency of virulent biotypes that can survive on resistant varieties is expected to increase as more farmers use these varieties. Soybean aphids can alter soybean physiology primarily by two mechanisms, feeding facilitation, and the obviation of resistance, favoring subsequent colonization by additional conspecifics. We developed a nonlocal, differential equation population model to explore the dynamics of these biological mechanisms on soybean plants coinfested with virulent and avirulent aphids. We then use demographic parameters from laboratory experiments to perform numerical simulations via the model. We used this model to determine that initial conditions are an important factor in the season-long cooccurrence of both biotypes. The initial population of both biotypes above the resistance threshold or avirulent aphid close to resistance threshold and high virulent aphid population results in coexistence of the aphids throughout the season. These simulations successfully mimicked aphid dynamics observed in the field- and laboratory-based microcosms. The model showed an increase in colonization of virulent aphids increases the likelihood that aphid resistance is suppressed, subsequently increasing the survival of avirulent aphids. This interaction produced an indirect, positive interaction between the biotypes. These results suggest the potential for a 'within plant' refuge that could contribute to the sustainable use of aphid-resistant soybeans.

Dynamics of a predator-prey model with generalized Holling type functional response and mutual interference.

Mutual interference and prey refuge are important drivers of predator-prey dynamics. The "exponent" or degree of mutual interference has been under much debate in theoretical ecology. In the present work, we investigate the interplay of the mutual interference exponent, and prey refuge, on the behavior of a predator-prey model with a generalized Holling type functional response - considering in particular the "non-smooth" case. This model can also be used to model an infectious disease where a susceptible population, moves to an infected class, after being infected by the disease. We investigate dynamical properties of the system and derive conditions for the occurrence of saddle-node, transcritical and Hopf-bifurcations. A sufficient condition for finite time extinction of the prey species has also been derived. In addition, we investigate the effect of a prey refuge on the population dynamics of the model and derive conditions such that the prey refuge would yield persistence of the population. We provide additional verification of our analytical results via numerical simulations. Our findings are in accordance with classical experimental results in ecology (Gause, 1934), that show that extinction of predator and prey populations is possible in a finite time period - but that bringing in refuge can effectively yield persistence.

A remark on "Biological control through provision of additional food to predators: A theoretical study" [Theor. Popul. Biol. 72 (2007) 111-120].

Biological control, the use of predators and pathogens to control target pests, is a promising alternative to chemical control. It is hypothesized that the introduced predators efficacy can be boosted by providing them with an additional food source. The current literature (Srinivasu, 2007; 2010; 2011) claims that if the additional food is of sufficiently large quantity and quality then pest eradication is possible in finite time. The purpose of the current manuscript is to show that to the contrary, pest eradication is not possible in finite time, for any quantity and quality of additional food. We show that pest eradication will occur only in infinite time, and derive decay rates to the extinction state. We posit a new modeling framework to yield finite time pest extinction. Our results have large scale implications for the effective design of biological control methods involving additional food.

Biological control via "ecological" damping: An approach that attenuates non-target effects.

In this work we develop and analyze a mathematical model of biological control to prevent or attenuate the explosive increase of an invasive species population, that functions as a top predator, in a three-species food chain. We allow for finite time blow-up in the model as a mathematical construct to mimic the explosive increase in population, enabling the species to reach "disastrous", and uncontrollable population levels, in a finite time. We next improve the mathematical model and incorporate controls that are shown to drive down the invasive population growth and, in certain cases, eliminate blow-up. Hence, the population does not reach an uncontrollable level. The controls avoid chemical treatments and/or natural enemy introduction, thus eliminating various non-target effects associated with such classical methods. We refer to these new controls as "ecological damping", as their inclusion dampens the invasive species population growth. Further, we improve prior results on the regularity and Turing instability of the three-species model that were derived in Parshad et al. (2014). Lastly, we confirm the existence of spatiotemporal chaos.

Stochastic models for the Trojan Y-Chromosome eradication strategy of an invasive species.

The Trojan Y-Chromosome (TYC) strategy, an autocidal genetic biocontrol method, has been proposed to eliminate invasive alien species. In this work, we develop a Markov jump process model for this strategy, and we verify that there is a positive probability for wild-type females going extinct within a finite time. Moreover, when sex-reversed Trojan females are introduced at a constant population size, we formulate a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model as an approximation to the proposed Markov jump process model. Using the SDE model, we investigate the probability distribution and expectation of the extinction time of wild-type females by solving Kolmogorov equations associated with these statistics. The results indicate how the probability distribution and expectation of the extinction time are shaped by the initial conditions and the model parameters.

Turing patterns and long-time behavior in a three-species food-chain model.

We consider a spatially explicit three-species food chain model, describing generalist top predator-specialist middle predator-prey dynamics. We investigate the long-time dynamics of the model and show the existence of a finite dimensional global attractor in the product space, L(2)(Ω). We perform linear stability analysis and show that the model exhibits the phenomenon of Turing instability, as well as diffusion induced chaos. Various Turing patterns such as stripe patterns, mesh patterns, spot patterns, labyrinth patterns and weaving patterns are obtained, via numerical simulations in 1d as well as in 2d. The Turing and non-Turing space, in terms of model parameters, is also explored. Finally, we use methods from nonlinear time series analysis to reconstruct a low dimensional chaotic attractor of the model, and estimate its fractal dimension. This provides a lower bound, for the fractal dimension of the attractor, of the spatially explicit model.

Analysis of the Trojan Y-Chromosome eradication strategy for an invasive species.

The Trojan Y-Chromosome (TYC) strategy, an autocidal genetic biocontrol method, has been proposed to eliminate invasive alien species. In this work, we analyze the dynamical system model of the TYC strategy, with the aim of studying the viability of the TYC eradication and control strategy of an invasive species. In particular, because the constant introduction of sex-reversed trojan females for all time is not possible in practice, there arises the question: What happens if this injection is stopped after some time? Can the invasive species recover? To answer that question, we perform a rigorous bifurcation analysis and study the basin of attraction of the recovery state and the extinction state in both the full model and a certain reduced model. In particular, we find a theoretical condition for the eradication strategy to work. Additionally, the consideration of an Allee effect and the possibility of a Turing instability are also studied in this work. Our results show that: (1) with the inclusion of an Allee effect, the number of the invasive females is not required to be very low when the introduction of the sex-reversed trojan females is stopped, and the remaining Trojan Y-Chromosome population is sufficient to induce extinction of the invasive females; (2) incorporating diffusive spatial spread does not produce a Turing instability, which would have suggested that the TYC eradication strategy might be only partially effective, leaving a patchy distribution of the invasive species.

Mosquito management in the face of natural selection.

The sterile insect technique (SIT) is an appealing method for managing mosquito populations while avoiding the environmental and social costs associated with more traditional control strategies like insecticide application. Success of SIT, however, hinges on sterile males being able to compete for females. As a result, heavy and/or continued use of SIT could potentially diminish its efficacy if prolonged treatments result in selection for female preference against sterile males. In this paper we extend a general differential equation model of mosquito dynamics to consider the role of female choosiness in determining the long-term usefulness of SIT as a management option. We then apply optimal control theory to our model and show how natural selection for female choosiness fundamentally alters management strategies. Our study calls into question the benefits associated with developing SIT as a management strategy, and suggests that effort should be spent studying female mate choice in order to determine its relative importance and how likely it is to impact SIT treatment goals.

A statistical approach to the use of control entropy identifies differences in constraints of gait in highly trained versus untrained runners.

Control entropy (CE) is a complexity analysis suitable for dynamic, non-stationary conditions which allows the inference of the control effort of a dynamical system generating the signal. These characteristics make CE a highly relevant time varying quantity relevant to the dynamic physiological responses associated with running. Using High Resolution Accelerometry (HRA) signals we evaluate here constraints of running gait, from two different groups of runners, highly trained collegiate and untrained runners. To this end,we further develop the control entropy (CE) statistic to allow for group analysis to examine the non-linear characteristics of movement patterns in highly trained runners with those of untrained runners, to gain insight regarding gaits that are optimal for running. Specifically, CE develops response time series of individuals descriptive of the control effort; a group analysis of these shapes developed here uses Karhunen Loeve Analysis (KL) modes of these time series which are compared between groups by application of a Hotelling T² test to these group response shapes. We find that differences in the shape of the CE response exist within groups, between axes for untrained runners (vertical vs anterior-posterior and mediolateral vs anterior-posterior) and trained runners (mediolateral vs anterior-posterior). Also shape differences exist between groups by axes (vertical vs mediolateral). Further, the CE, as a whole, was higher in each axis in trained vs untrained runners. These results indicate that the approach can provide unique insight regarding the differing constraints on running gait in highly trained and untrained runners when running under dynamic conditions. Further, the final point indicates trained runners are less constrained than untrained runners across all running speeds.

Analysis of the Trojan Y chromosome model for eradication of invasive species in a dendritic riverine system.

The use of Trojan Y chromosomes has been proposed as a genetic strategy for the eradication of invasive species. The strategy is particularly relevant to invasive fish species that have XY sex determination system and are amenable to sex-reversal. In this paper we study the dynamics of an invasive fish population occupying a dendritic domain in which Trojan individuals bearing multiple Y chromosomes have been released as a means of eradication. We demonstrate the existence of a bounded absorbing set that represents extinction of the invasive species irrespective of the dendritic configuration. The method of analysis used to obtain global estimates could be applied to other population problems and other geometries.

Lower extremity fatigue increases complexity of postural control during a single-legged stance.

BACKGROUND: Non-linear approaches to assessment of postural control can provide insight that compliment linear approaches. Control entropy (CE) is a recently developed statistical tool from non-linear dynamical systems used to assess the complexity of non-stationary signals. We have previously used CE of high resolution accelerometry in running to show decreased complexity with exhaustive exercise. The purpose of this study was to determine if complexity of postural control decreases following fatiguing exercise using CE. METHODS: Ten subjects (5 M/5 F; 25 ± 3 yr; 169.4 ± 11.7 cm; 79.0 ± 16.9 kg) consented to participation approved by Western Oregon University IRB and completed two trials separated by 2-7 days. Trials consisted of two single-legged balance tests separated by two Wingate anaerobic tests (WAnT; PreFat/PostFat), or rest period (PreRest/PostRest). Balance tests consisted of a series of five single-legged stances, separated by 30 s rest, performed while standing on the dominant leg for 15-s with the participant crossing the arms over the chest and flexing the non-dominant knee to 90 degrees. High resolution accelerometers (HRA) were fixed superficial to L3/L4 at the approximate center of mass (COM). Triaxial signals from the HRA were streamed in real time at 625 Hz. COM accelerations were recorded in g's for vertical (VT), medial/lateral (ML), and anterior/posterior (AP) axes. A newly developed statistic (R-test) was applied to group response shapes generated by Karhunen Loeve (KL) transform modes resulting from Control Entropy (CE) analysis. RESULTS: R-tests showed a significant mean vector difference (p < .05) within conditions, between axes in all cases, except PostFat, indicating the shape of the complexity response was different in these cases. R-test between conditions, within axis, differences were only present in PostFat for AP vs. PreFat (p < .05). T-tests showed a significantly higher overall CE PostFat in VT and ML compared to PreFat and PostRest (p < .0001). PostFat CE was also higher than PostRest in AP (p < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that fatiguing exercise eliminates the differential complexity response between axes, but increases complexity in all axes compared to the non-fatigued condition. This has implications with regard to the effects of fatigue on strategies of the control system to maintain postural control.