Mapping and population size estimates of people who inject drugs in Afghanistan in 2019: Synthesis of multiple methods.

INTRODUCTION: Mapping and population size estimates of people who inject drugs (PWID) provide information needed for monitoring coverage of programs and planning interventions. The objectives of this study were to provide the locations and numbers of PWID in eight cities in Afghanistan and extrapolate estimates for the country as a whole. METHODS: Multiple population size estimation methods were used, including key informant interviews for mapping and enumeration with reverse tracking, unique object and service multipliers, capture-recapture, and wisdom of the crowds. The results of the several methods were synthesized using the Anchored Multiplier-a Bayesian approach to produce point estimates and 95% credible intervals (CI). Using the prevalence of PWID in the eight cities and their correlation with proxy indicators, we extrapolated the PWID population size for all of Afghanistan. RESULTS: Key informants and field mapping identified 374 hotspots across the eight cities from December 29, 2018 to March 20, 2019. Synthesizing results of the multiple methods, the number of male PWID in the eight study cities was estimated to be 11,506 (95% CI 8,449-15,093), corresponding to 0.69% (95% CI 0.50-0.90) of the adult male population age 15-64 years. The total number of women who injected drugs was estimated at 484 (95% CI 356-633), corresponding to 0.03% (95% CI 0.02-0.04) of the adult female population. Extrapolating by proxy indicators, the total number of PWID in Afghanistan was estimated to be 54,782 (95% CI 40,250-71,837), men and 2,457 (95% CI 1,823-3,210) women. The total number of PWID in Afghanistan was estimated to be 57,207 (95% CI 42,049-75,005), which corresponds to 0.37% (95% CI 0.27-0.48) of the adult population age 15 to 64 years. DISCUSSION: This study provided estimates for the number of PWID in Afghanistan. These estimates can be used for advocating and planning services for this vulnerable at-risk population.

Cost Effectiveness of New Diagnostic Tools for Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Afghanistan.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cutaneous leishmaniasis is responsible for chronic and disfiguring skin lesions resulting in morbidity and social stigma. The gold standard to diagnose cutaneous leishmaniasis is microscopy but has a variable sensitivity and requires trained personnel. Using four scenarios, the objective of this study is to compare the cost effectiveness of microscopy with two new tools: Loopamp™ Leishmania Detection Kit (LAMP) and CL Detect™ Rapid Test (RDT). METHODS: Data related to the cost and accuracy of these tools were collected at the clinic of the National Malaria and Leishmaniasis Control Program in Kabul, Afghanistan. The effectiveness estimates were measured based on the tools' performance but also indirectly, using the disability-adjusted life years. A decision tree was designed in TreeAge Healthcare Pro 2016, combined with a Markov model representing the natural history of cutaneous leishmaniasis. In addition to a deterministic analysis, univariate sensitivity and probabilistic analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results. RESULTS: If the tools are compared at the National Malaria and Leishmaniasis Control Program level in a period of low incidence, microscopy remains the preferred option. LAMP becomes more appropriate during cutaneous leishmaniasis seasons or outbreaks when its capacity to process several tests (e.g. up to 48) at a time can be maximised. RDT has a cost similar to microscopy when used at the reference clinic but as it is relatively easy to use, it could be implemented at the peripheral level, which would become cheaper than employing microscopy at the reference clinic. Moreover, combining RDT with microscopy or LAMP at the reference clinic for the negative suspects is economically more interesting than directly performing LAMP or microscopy respectively on all cutaneous leishmaniasis suspects at the reference clinic. CONCLUSIONS: When taking advantage of their respective strengths, LAMP and RDT can prove to be cost-effective alternatives to using microscopy alone at the reference clinic.