From predictions to prescriptions: A data-driven response to COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at a steep economic price. We design analytical tools to support these decisions and combat the pandemic. Specifically, we propose a comprehensive data-driven approach to understand the clinical characteristics of COVID-19, predict its mortality, forecast its evolution, and ultimately alleviate its impact. By leveraging cohort-level clinical data, patient-level hospital data, and census-level epidemiological data, we develop an integrated four-step approach, combining descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics. First, we aggregate hundreds of clinical studies into the most comprehensive database on COVID-19 to paint a new macroscopic picture of the disease. Second, we build personalized calculators to predict the risk of infection and mortality as a function of demographics, symptoms, comorbidities, and lab values. Third, we develop a novel epidemiological model to project the pandemic's spread and inform social distancing policies. Fourth, we propose an optimization model to re-allocate ventilators and alleviate shortages. Our results have been used at the clinical level by several hospitals to triage patients, guide care management, plan ICU capacity, and re-distribute ventilators. At the policy level, they are currently supporting safe back-to-work policies at a major institution and vaccine trial location planning at Janssen Pharmaceuticals, and have been integrated into the US Center for Disease Control's pandemic forecast.

Multitask learning improves prediction of cancer drug sensitivity.

Precision oncology seeks to predict the best therapeutic option for individual patients based on the molecular characteristics of their tumors. To assess the preclinical feasibility of drug sensitivity prediction, several studies have measured drug responses for cytotoxic and targeted therapies across large collections of genomically and transcriptomically characterized cancer cell lines and trained predictive models using standard methods like elastic net regression. Here we use existing drug response data sets to demonstrate that multitask learning across drugs strongly improves the accuracy and interpretability of drug prediction models. Our method uses trace norm regularization with a highly efficient ADMM (alternating direction method of multipliers) optimization algorithm that readily scales to large data sets. We anticipate that our approach will enhance efforts to exploit growing drug response compendia in order to advance personalized therapy.