Urban working groups in the IAEA's model testing programmes: overview from the MODARIA I and MODARIA II programmes.

The IAEA's model testing programmes have included a series of Working Groups concerned with modelling radioactive contamination in urban environments. These have included the Urban Working Group of Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (1988-1994), the Urban Remediation Working Group of Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety (EMRAS) (2003-2007), the Urban Areas Working Group of EMRAS II (2009-2011), the Urban Environments Working Group of (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) MODARIA I (2013-2015), and most recently, the Urban Exposures Working Group of MODARIA II (2016-2019). The overarching objective of these Working Groups has been to test and improve the capabilities of computer models used to assess radioactive contamination in urban environments, including dispersion and deposition processes, short-term and long-term redistribution of contaminants following deposition events, and the effectiveness of various countermeasures and other protective actions, including remedial actions, in reducing contamination levels, human exposures, and doses to humans. This paper describes the exercises conducted during the MODARIA I and MODARIA II programmes. These exercises have included short-range and mid-range atmospheric dispersion exercises based on data from field tests or tracer studies, hypothetical urban dispersion exercises, and an exercise based on data collected after the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Improvement of model capabilities will lead to improvements in assessing various contamination scenarios (real or hypothetical), and in turn, to improved decision-making and communication with the public following a nuclear or radiological emergency.

Dynamics of passive tracers in the atmosphere: laboratory experiments and numerical tests with reanalysis wind fields.

Laboratory and numerical experiments are reported on dye advection processes in geostrophic turbulence. The experimental setup is the classical rotating annulus with differential heating which mimics the most essential features of midlatitude atmospheric flow. The main control parameter is the temperature contrast. Fluorescent dye is used as passive tracer, and dispersion is evaluated by digital image processing. The results are compared with tracer dispersion computations which are performed by means of global reanalysis wind fields at the pressure height of 500 hPa covering a time interval of one year. Apart from initial transient periods, the characteristic behavior for intermediate time scales is ballistic dispersion in both systems, where the zonal extent of the tracer cloud increases linearly in time (Batchelor scaling). The long-time evolution cannot be followed by the experimental technique, however, the numerical tests suggest a slower diffusive dispersion (Taylor regime) after 70-80 revolutions (days), in agreement with expectations. Richardson-Obukhov scaling (superdiffusion with an exponent value of 3/2) is neither observed in the laboratory nor in the numerical tests. Our findings confirm recent experimental results on the classic prediction by Batchelor that the initial pair separation is an essential parameter of the subsequent time evolution of tracers.

Nonuniversal atmospheric persistence: different scaling of daily minimum and maximum temperatures.

An extensive investigation of 61 daily temperature records by means of detrended fluctuation analysis has revealed that the value of correlation exponent is not universal, contrary to earlier claims. Furthermore, statistically significant differences are found for daily minimum and maximum temperatures measured at the same station, suggesting different degrees of long-range correlations for the two extremes. Numerical tests on synthetic time series demonstrate that a correlated signal interrupted by uncorrelated segments exhibits an apparently lower exponent value over the usual time window of empirical data analysis. In order to find statistical differences between the two daily extreme temperatures, high frequency (10 min) records were evaluated for two distant locations. The results show that daily maxima characterize better the dynamic equilibrium state of the atmosphere than daily minima, for both stations. This provides a conceptual explanation why scaling analysis can yield different exponent values for minima and maxima.