RESUMO
We analyze current data on the COVID-19 spreading in Okinawa, Japan. We find that the initial spread is characterized by a doubling time of about 5 days. We implement a model to forecast the future spread under different scenarios. The model predicts that, if significant containment measures are not taken, a large fraction of the population will be infected with COVID-19, with the peak of the epidemic expected at the end of May and intensive care units having largely exceeded capacity. We analyzed scenarios implementing strong containment measures, similar to those imposed in Europe. The model predicts that an immediate implementation of strong containment measures (on the 19th of April) will significantly reduce the death count. We assess the negative consequences of these measures being implemented with a delay, or not being sufficiently stringent.
