Climate and land use shape the water balance and water quality in selected European lakes.

This study provides insights into factors that influence the water balance of selected European lakes, mainly in Central Europe, and their implications for water quality. An analysis of isotopic, chemical and land use data using statistical and artificial intelligence models showed that climate, particularly air temperature and precipitation, played a key role in intensifying evaporation losses from the lakes. Water balance was also affected by catchment factors, notably groundwater table depth. The study shows that lakes at lower altitudes with shallow depths and catchments dominated by urban or crop cover were more sensitive to water balance changes. These lakes had higher evaporation-to-inflow ratios and increased concentrations of total nitrogen in the water. On the other hand, lakes at higher elevations with deeper depths and prevailing forest cover in the catchment were less sensitive to water balance changes. These lakes, which are often of glacial origin, were characterized by lower evaporation losses and thus better water quality in terms of total nitrogen concentrations. Understanding connections between water balance and water quality is crucial for effective lake management and the preservation of freshwater ecosystems.

What makes a cyanobacterial bloom disappear? A review of the abiotic and biotic cyanobacterial bloom loss factors.

Cyanobacterial blooms present substantial challenges to managers and threaten ecological and public health. Although the majority of cyanobacterial bloom research and management focuses on factors that control bloom initiation, duration, toxicity, and geographical extent, relatively little research focuses on the role of loss processes in blooms and how these processes are regulated. Here, we define a loss process in terms of population dynamics as any process that removes cells from a population, thereby decelerating or reducing the development and extent of blooms. We review abiotic (e.g., hydraulic flushing and oxidative stress/UV light) and biotic factors (e.g., allelopathic compounds, infections, grazing, and resting cells/programmed cell death) known to govern bloom loss. We found that the dominant loss processes depend on several system specific factors including cyanobacterial genera-specific traits, in situ physicochemical conditions, and the microbial, phytoplankton, and consumer community composition. We also address loss processes in the context of bloom management and discuss perspectives and challenges in predicting how a changing climate may directly and indirectly affect loss processes on blooms. A deeper understanding of bloom loss processes and their underlying mechanisms may help to mitigate the negative consequences of cyanobacterial blooms and improve current management strategies.

Synergistic Effects of Warming and Internal Nutrient Loading Interfere with the Long-Term Stability of Lake Restoration and Induce Sudden Re-eutrophication.

Phosphorus (P) precipitation is among the most effective treatments to mitigate lake eutrophication. However, after a period of high effectiveness, studies have shown possible re-eutrophication and the return of harmful algal blooms. While such abrupt ecological changes were attributed to the internal P loading, the role of lake warming and its potential synergistic effects with internal loading, thus far, has been understudied. Here, in a eutrophic lake in central Germany, we quantified the driving mechanisms of the abrupt re-eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms in 2016 (30 years after the first P precipitation). A process-based lake ecosystem model (GOTM-WET) was established using a high-frequency monitoring data set covering contrasting trophic states. Model analyses suggested that the internal P release accounted for 68% of the cyanobacterial biomass proliferation, while lake warming contributed to 32%, including direct effects via promoting growth (18%) and synergistic effects via intensifying internal P loading (14%). The model further showed that the synergy was attributed to prolonged lake hypolimnion warming and oxygen depletion. Our study unravels the substantial role of lake warming in promoting cyanobacterial blooms in re-eutrophicated lakes. The warming effects on cyanobacteria via promoting internal loading need more attention in lake management, particularly for urban lakes.

Quantifying the effects of land use change and aggregate stormwater management practices on fecal coliform dynamics in a temperate catchment.

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) due to land development can lead to an increase in diffuse microbial pollutions and, consequently, degradation of the receiving aquatic ecosystem. However, the mechanisms underlying these phenomena are rarely considered in hydrological models. Therefore, in this study, fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and total suspended solids (TSS) in a temperate catchment were simulated using a well-established water quality model (Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model) to systematically quantify the factors influencing their dynamics and the effects of stormwater management. Additionally, high-resolution data (e.g., water quality variables and LULC changes) were used to calibrate the model, which accurately reproduced the physical and biological features of the catchment. The results showed that increases in bare land areas and impervious cover in the catchment exceeded the Korean (as well as the USEPA-based) standard recreational water quality criteria for fecal contamination and TSS. Dissolved organic compounds (only during storm events), TSS, and total nitrogen (except during the pre-development phase) were the strongest predictors in shaping FIB dynamics. The multiple control of stormwater management reduced the FIB and TSS concentrations by approximately 65% in the catchment. The results of this study not only provide conclusions on the drivers of FIB and TSS dynamics and their quantitative contribution but also help in designing a methodology for empirical and ecological predictions of diffuse microbial and TSS pollution in a catchment with ongoing land development.

Forest damage and subsequent recovery alter the water composition in mountain lake catchments.

Forest damage by insect infestation directly affects the trees themselves, but also indirectly affects water quality via soil processes. The changes in water composition may undergo different pathways depending on site-specific characteristics and forest components, especially the proportion of coniferous and deciduous trees. Here, we test whether changes in forest components and the intensity of disturbance can predict the chemical properties of water outflow from affected lake catchments. Information about forest regeneration (a phase dominated by deciduous trees) and the proportions of damaged and healthy coniferous trees and treeless areas were obtained from satellite data. The four study catchments of Prásilské, Laka, Plesné, and Certovo lakes are geographically close and located in the same mountain range (Sumava Mts., Czech Republic) at similar altitude, but they differ in extents of forest disturbances and recoveries. The water quality measured at the lake catchment outflows differed, and better reflected the development of forest components and health than did meteorological (temperature and precipitation) or hydrological (discharge) variables. Several of the outflow properties (concentrations of inorganic aluminium, protons, potassium, calcium, magnesium, alkalinity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, and total phosphorus), responded catchment-specifically and with different delays to forest disturbance. The most pronounced differences occurred in DOC concentrations, which started to increase in the most disturbed Plesné and Laka catchments 7 and 6 years, respectively, after the peak in tree dieback, but did not increase significantly in the Prásilské catchment, which was disturbed several times during the last 3-4 decades. This study demonstrates an importance of extents of forest disturbances, the following changes in forest composition, and catchment-specific characteristics on water composition.

Comparison of two receptor models PCA-MLR and PMF for source identification and apportionment of pollution carried by runoff from catchment and sub-watershed areas with mixed land cover in South Korea.

The application and comparison of receptor modeling techniques based on ambient air quality and particulate matter increasingly being studied. However, less is known about the comparison of receptor modeling techniques using spatial runoff quality data to identify and quantify the stormwater runoff pollution. This study compared the performance of principal component analysis-multiple linear regressions (PCA-MLR) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) models on stormwater runoff data collected from a small catchment (Site 1) with urban development activity and a sub-watershed outlet (Site 2). In both sites, the PCA-MLR model identified three pollution sources, whereas PMF identified five with a detailed source mechanism including two additional sources. Furthermore, the spatial land-use land-cover (LULC) analysis results indicate that the Site 1 exhibited a rapid conversion of the native area into a built-up area over the monitoring period compared to Site 2. Based on the modeling results, domestic wastewater and soil erosion were the major source of pollution at Site 1 and Site 2, respectively. The performance evaluation statistics including Nash coefficient (0.86-0.99), % error (<-14 to 2), and coefficient of determination (R2 ≤ 0.99) showed better performance for the PMF model than the PCA-MLR model. Overall, the PMF receptor modeling approach was found to be more robust for the current study sites with different land use types. The findings of this study could provide a basis for further application of these receptor models and their comparison using spatial-temporal ionic and sediment related runoff monitoring data. Also, the models from this research could be combined with other receptor models on runoff quality data (e.g. CMB or UNMIX) to explore and inter-compare the outcomes, and to determine how the model results are affected by modifications to input data and model parameters. Therefore, further research is required to precisely assess the accuracy of both receptor models.

Temporal variability of suspended solids in construction runoff and evaluation of time-paced sampling strategies.

The construction sites have been considered the type of land use with the highest pollution potential, especially due to the erosion of exposed soil surfaces. The runoff monitoring of the construction site was carried out since June 2011 through December 2015. Based on land use land cover (LULC) classification, the monitoring period was divided into active and post-construction phases. Total suspended solids (TSS) showed evident inter-phase variability in average annual event mean concentration (AAEMC) and wash-off pattern. We suggested that stringent runoff control measures should be adopted during active construction phase. Similarly, Personalized Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM) was applied to evaluate the performance of the time-paced discrete and composite sampling scheme in continuously changing LC scenario. It was found that even though the time-paced composite sampling scheme is more cost effective, it showed lower performance in EMC estimation when compared with the time-paced discrete sampling approach. The results also showed that the storm event monitored at a time discrete frequency of 5 min, 10 min, and 15 min, the maximum expected mean bias will be under the accepted level of 10% of the true EMC value. We concluded that construction phase-specific modifications in sampling scheme provides a view to generate near accurate estimates.