Explaining marital patterns and trends in namibia: a regression analysis of 1992, 2000 and 2006 demographic and survey data.

BACKGROUND: Marriage is a significant event in life-course of individuals, and creates a system that characterizes societal and economic structures. Marital patterns and dynamics over the years have changed a lot, with decreasing proportions of marriage, increased levels of divorce and co-habitation in developing countries. Although, such changes have been reported in African societies including Namibia, they have largely remained unexplained. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: IN THIS PAPER, WE EXAMINED TRENDS AND PATTERNS OF MARITAL STATUS OF WOMEN OF MARRIAGEABLE AGE: 15 to 49 years, in Namibia using the 1992, 2000 and 2006 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. Trends were established for selected demographic variables. Two binary logistic regression models for ever-married versus never married, and cohabitation versus married were fitted to establish factors associated with such nuptial systems. Further a multinomial logistic regression models, adjusted for bio-demographic and socio-economic variables, were fitted separately for each year, to establish determinants of type of union (never married, married and cohabitation). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Findings indicate a general change away from marriage, with a shift in singulate mean age at marriage. Cohabitation was prevalent among those less than 30 years of age, the odds were higher in urban areas and increased since 1992. Be as it may marriage remained a persistent nuptiality pattern, and common among the less educated and employed, but lower odds in urban areas. Results from multinomial model suggest that marital status was associated with age at marriage, total children born, region, place of residence, education level and religion. We conclude that marital patterns have undergone significant transformation over the past two decades in Namibia, with a coexistence of traditional marriage framework with co-habitation, and sizeable proportion remaining unmarried to the late 30s. A shift in the singulate mean age is becoming distinctive in the Namibian society.

Determinants of fertility in Namibia.

In-depth studies on fertility in Namibia have been lacking so far. This examines the fertility trends in Namibia over the past 2 decades and examines fertility differentials across the various sub-groups of Namibia population, and factors affecting such differentials using NDHS data. Estimates of the amount of variance in the total number of children ever born that could be explained by each of the independent variables were made using multiple regression analysis for the three data sources. Overall, results from descriptive analysis show that fertility levels in Namibia have been decreasing over the past two decades. The decrease could be associated with an increased trend in the prevalence of use of modern contraceptives which doubled since 1992. Age at first birth has remained constant but age at first marriage continues to increase. As a result, postponement of marriage increases the probability that women remain childless or that they have fewer children than desired. Replacement level is projected to be attained much faster than expected and the study recommend for further research that focuses on policy implications of family planning programmes once replacement level has been achieved to maintain it.