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BACKGROUND: Hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTRv amyloidosis) is an inherited disease, where the study of family history holds importance. This study evaluates the changes of age-of-onset (AOO) and other age-related clinical factors within and among families affected by ATTRv amyloidosis. METHODS: We analysed information from 934 trees, focusing on family, parents, probands and siblings relationships. We focused on 1494 female and 1712 male symptomatic ATTRV30M patients. Results are presented alongside a comparison of current with historical records. Clinical and genealogical indicators identify major changes. RESULTS: Overall, analysis of familial data shows the existence of families with both early and late patients (1/6). It identifies long familial follow-up times since patient families tend to be diagnosed over several years. Finally, results show a large difference between parent-child and proband-patient relationships (20-30 years). CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals that there has been a shift in patient profile, with a recent increase in male elderly cases, especially regarding probands. It shows that symptomatic patients exhibit less variability towards siblings, when compared to other family members, namely the transmitting ancestors' age of onset. This can influence genetic counselling guidelines.
RESUMO
Introduction: Hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTRv amyloidosis) is a rare neurological hereditary disease clinically characterized as severe, progressive, and life-threatening while the age of onset represents the moment in time when the first symptoms are felt. In this study, we present and discuss our results on the study, development, and evaluation of an approach that allows for time-to-event prediction of the age of onset, while focusing on genealogical feature construction. Materials and methods: This research was triggered by the need to answer the medical problem of when will an asymptomatic ATTRv patient show symptoms of the disease. To do so, we defined and studied the impact of 77 features (ranging from demographic and genealogical to familial disease history) we studied and compared a pool of prediction algorithms, namely, linear regression (LR), elastic net (EN), lasso (LA), ridge (RI), support vector machines (SV), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and XGboost (XG), both in a classification as well as a regression setting; we assembled a baseline (BL) which corresponds to the current medical knowledge of the disease; we studied the problem of predicting the age of onset of ATTRv patients; we assessed the viability of predicting age of onset on short term horizons, with a classification framing, on localized sets of patients (currently symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers, with and without genealogical information); and we compared the results with an out-of-bag evaluation set and assembled in a different time-frame than the original data in order to account for data leakage. Results: Currently, we observe that our approach outperforms the BL model, which follows a set of clinical heuristics and represents current medical practice. Overall, our results show the supremacy of SV and XG for both the prediction tasks although impacted by data characteristics, namely, the existence of missing values, complex data, and small-sized available inputs. Discussion: With this study, we defined a predictive model approach capable to be well-understood by medical professionals, compared with the current practice, namely, the baseline approach (BL), and successfully showed the improvement achieved to the current medical knowledge.
