Horse populations are severely underestimated in a region at risk of Hendra virus spillover.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the size and distribution of the horse population in the Northern Rivers Region of NSW, including changes from 2007 to 2021, to better understand populations at risk of Hendra virus transmission. METHODS: Census data from the 2007 Equine Influenza (EI) outbreak were compared with data collected annually by New South Wales Local Land Services (LLS) (2011-2021), and with field observations via road line transects (2021). RESULTS: The horse populations reported to LLS in 2011 (3000 horses; 0.77 horses/km2) was 145% larger than that reported during the EI outbreak in 2007 (1225 horses; 0.32 horses/km2). This was inconsistent with the 6% increase in horses recorded from 2011 to 2020 within the longitudinal LLS dataset. Linear modelling suggested the true horse population of this region in 2007 was at least double that reported at the time. Distance sampling in 2021 estimated the region's population at 10,185 horses (3.89 per km2; 95% CI = 4854-21,372). Field sampling and modelling identified higher horse densities in rural cropland, with the percentage of conservation land, modified grazing, and rural residential land identified as the best predictors of horse densities. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the 2007 EI outbreak no longer correlates to the current horse population in size or distribution and was likely not a true representation at the time. Current LLS data also likely underestimates horse populations. Ongoing efforts to further quantify and map horse populations in Australia are important for estimating and managing the risk of equine zoonoses.

Predicting prognosis for adults with depression using individual symptom data: a comparison of modelling approaches.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop, validate and compare the performance of models predicting post-treatment outcomes for depressed adults based on pre-treatment data. METHODS: Individual patient data from all six eligible randomised controlled trials were used to develop (k = 3, n = 1722) and test (k = 3, n = 918) nine models. Predictors included depressive and anxiety symptoms, social support, life events and alcohol use. Weighted sum scores were developed using coefficient weights derived from network centrality statistics (models 1-3) and factor loadings from a confirmatory factor analysis (model 4). Unweighted sum score models were tested using elastic net regularised (ENR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (models 5 and 6). Individual items were then included in ENR and OLS (models 7 and 8). All models were compared to one another and to a null model (mean post-baseline Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition (BDI-II) score in the training data: model 9). Primary outcome: BDI-II scores at 3-4 months. RESULTS: Models 1-7 all outperformed the null model and model 8. Model performance was very similar across models 1-6, meaning that differential weights applied to the baseline sum scores had little impact. CONCLUSIONS: Any of the modelling techniques (models 1-7) could be used to inform prognostic predictions for depressed adults with differences in the proportions of patients reaching remission based on the predicted severity of depressive symptoms post-treatment. However, the majority of variance in prognosis remained unexplained. It may be necessary to include a broader range of biopsychosocial variables to better adjudicate between competing models, and to derive models with greater clinical utility for treatment-seeking adults with depression.

Depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on mental health is still being unravelled. It is important to identify which individuals are at greatest risk of worsening symptoms. This study aimed to examine changes in depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms using prospective and retrospective symptom change assessments, and to find and examine the effect of key risk factors. METHOD: Online questionnaires were administered to 34 465 individuals (aged 16 years or above) in April/May 2020 in the UK, recruited from existing cohorts or via social media. Around one-third (n = 12 718) of included participants had prior diagnoses of depression or anxiety and had completed pre-pandemic mental health assessments (between September 2018 and February 2020), allowing prospective investigation of symptom change. RESULTS: Prospective symptom analyses showed small decreases in depression (PHQ-9: -0.43 points) and anxiety [generalised anxiety disorder scale - 7 items (GAD)-7: -0.33 points] and increases in PTSD (PCL-6: 0.22 points). Conversely, retrospective symptom analyses demonstrated significant large increases (PHQ-9: 2.40; GAD-7 = 1.97), with 55% reported worsening mental health since the beginning of the pandemic on a global change rating. Across both prospective and retrospective measures of symptom change, worsening depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms were associated with prior mental health diagnoses, female gender, young age and unemployed/student status. CONCLUSIONS: We highlight the effect of prior mental health diagnoses on worsening mental health during the pandemic and confirm previously reported sociodemographic risk factors. Discrepancies between prospective and retrospective measures of changes in mental health may be related to recall bias-related underestimation of prior symptom severity.

Hendra in the Hunter Valley.

In June 2019 the first equine case of Hendra virus in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia was detected. An urgent human and animal health response took place, involving biosecurity measures, contact tracing, promotion of equine vaccinations and investigation of flying fox activity in the area. No human or additional animal cases occurred. Equine vaccination uptake increased by over 30-fold in the surrounding region in the three months following the case. Black flying fox and grey-headed flying fox species were detected in the Valley. The incident prompted review of Hendra virus resources at local and national levels. This event near the "horse capital of Australia", is the southernmost known equine Hendra case. Management of the event was facilitated by interagency collaboration involving human and animal health experts. Ongoing One Health partnerships are essential for successful responses to future zoonotic events.

Time of year, age class and body condition predict Hendra virus infection in Australian black flying foxes (Pteropus alecto).

Hendra virus (HeV) continues to cause fatal infection in horses and threaten infection in close-contact humans in eastern Australia. Species of Pteropus bats (flying-foxes) are the natural reservoir of the virus. We caught and sampled flying-foxes from a multispecies roost in southeast Queensland, Australia on eight occasions between June 2013 and June 2014. The effects of sample date, species, sex, age class, body condition score (BCS), pregnancy and lactation on HeV antibody prevalence, log-transformed median fluorescent intensity (lnMFI) values and HeV RNA status were assessed using unbalanced generalised linear models. A total of 1968 flying-foxes were sampled, comprising 1012 Pteropus alecto, 742 P. poliocephalus and 214 P. scapulatus. Sample date, species and age class were each statistically associated with HeV RNA status, antibody status and lnMFI values; BCS was statistically associated with HeV RNA status and antibody status. The findings support immunologically naïve sub-adult P. alecto playing an important role in maintaining HeV infection at a population level. The biological significance of the association between BCS and HeV RNA status, and BCS and HeV antibody status, is less clear and warrants further investigation. Contrary to previous studies, we found no direct association between HeV infection and pregnancy or lactation. The findings in P. poliocephalus suggest that HeV exposure in this species may not result in systemic infection and virus excretion, or alternatively, may reflect assay cross-reactivity with another (unidentified) henipavirus.

Mepilex Border Sacrum and Heel Dressings for the Prevention of Pressure Ulcers: A NICE Medical Technology Guidance.

Mepilex Border Sacrum and Heel dressings are self-adherent, multilayer foam dressings designed for use on the heel and sacrum aiming to prevent pressure ulcers. The dressings are used in addition to standard care protocols for pressure ulcer prevention. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) selected Mepilex Border Sacrum and Heel dressings for evaluation. The External Assessment Centre (EAC) critiqued the company's submission. Thirteen studies (four randomised controlled trials and nine nonrandomised comparative studies) were included. The majority of studies compared Mepilex Border Sacrum dressings (plus standard care) with standard care alone. Comparative evidence for Mepilex Border Heel dressings was limited. A meta-analysis indicated a non-statistically significant difference in favour of Mepilex Border Sacrum dressings for pressure ulcer incidence [RR 0.51 (95% CI 0.22-1.18)]. The company produced a de novo cost model, which was critiqued by the EAC. After the EAC updated input parameters, cost savings of £19 per patient compared with standard care alone for pressure ulcer prevention were estimated with Mepilex Border dressings predicted to be cost saving in 57% of iterations. The Medical Technologies Advisory Committee reviewed the evidence and judged that, although Mepilex Border Heel and Sacrum dressings have potential to prevent pressure ulcers in people who are considered to be at risk in acute care settings, further evidence is required to address uncertainties around the claimed benefits of the dressings and the incidence of pressure ulcers in an NHS acute-care setting. After a public consultation, NICE published this as Medical Technology Guidance 40.

Economic evidence for nonpharmacological asthma management interventions: A systematic review.

Asthma management, education and environmental interventions have been reported as cost-effective in a previous review (Pharm Pract (Granada), 2014;12:493), but methods used to estimate costs and outcomes were not discussed in detail. This review updates the previous review by providing economic evidence on the cost-effectiveness of studies identified after 2012, and a detailed assessment of the methods used in all identified studies. Twelve databases were searched from 1990 to January 2016, and studies included economic evaluations, asthma subjects and nonpharmacological interventions written in English. Sixty-four studies were included. Of these, 15 were found in addition to the earlier review; 53% were rated fair in quality and 47% high. Education and self-management interventions were the most cost-effective, in line with the earlier review. Self-reporting was the most common method used to gather resource-use data, accompanied by bottom-up approaches to estimate costs. Main outcome measures were asthma-related hospitalizations (69%), quality of life (41%) and utility (38%), with AQLQ and the EQ-5D being the most common questionnaires measured prospectively at fixed time points. More rigorous costing methods are needed with a more common quality of life tool to aid greater replicability and comparability amongst asthma studies.

Conditions affecting the timing and magnitude of Hendra virus shedding across pteropodid bat populations in Australia.

Understanding infection dynamics in animal hosts is fundamental to managing spillover and emergence of zoonotic infections. Hendra virus is endemic in Australian pteropodid bat populations and can be lethal to horses and humans. However, we know little about the factors driving Hendra virus prevalence in resevoir bat populations, making spillover difficult to predict. We use Hendra virus prevalence data collected from 13 000 pooled bat urine samples across space and time to determine if pulses of prevalence are periodic and synchronized across sites. We also test whether site-specific precipitation and temperature affect the amplitude of the largest annual prevalence pulses. We found little evidence for a periodic signal in Hendra virus prevalence. Although the largest amplitude pulses tended to occur over winter, pulses could also occur in other seasons. We found that Hendra virus prevalence was weakly synchronized across sites over short distances, suggesting that prevalence is driven by local-scale effects. Finally, we found that drier conditions in previous seasons and the abundance of Pteropus alecto were positively correlated with the peak annual values of Hendra virus prevalence. Our results suggest that in addition to seasonal effects, bat density and local climatic conditions interact to drive Hendra virus infection dynamics.

Persistent infections support maintenance of a coronavirus in a population of Australian bats (Myotis macropus).

Understanding viral transmission dynamics within populations of reservoir hosts can facilitate greater knowledge of the spillover of emerging infectious diseases. While bat-borne viruses are of concern to public health, investigations into their dynamics have been limited by a lack of longitudinal data from individual bats. Here, we examine capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from a species of Australian bat (Myotis macropus) infected with a putative novel Alphacoronavirus within a Bayesian framework. Then, we developed epidemic models to estimate the effect of persistently infectious individuals (which shed viruses for extensive periods) on the probability of viral maintenance within the study population. We found that the CMR data analysis supported grouping of infectious bats into persistently and transiently infectious bats. Maintenance of coronavirus within the study population was more likely in an epidemic model that included both persistently and transiently infectious bats, compared with the epidemic model with non-grouping of bats. These findings, using rare CMR data from longitudinal samples of individual bats, increase our understanding of transmission dynamics of bat viral infectious diseases.

Neurocognition in individuals at high familial risk of mood disorders with or without subsequent onset of depression.

BACKGROUND: Neurocognitive performance deficits have been observed in mood disorder patients and their unaffected relatives and may therefore qualify as endophenotypes. However, the precise time course of neurocognitive deficits has not been studied so that it is unknown whether neurocognitive abnormalities reflect the early effects of familial vulnerability to mood disorders or if they emerge at illness onset. METHOD: A neuropsychological test battery was administered at baseline and after a 2-year follow-up interval in 111 initially unaffected young adults at high familial risk of mood disorders and 93 healthy controls (HC). During the follow-up period, 20 high-risk subjects developed major depressive disorder (HR-MDD), with the remainder remaining well (HR-well). Linear mixed-effects models were used to investigate differences and longitudinal changes in the domains of attentional processing, working memory, verbal learning and memory, and cognitive flexibility. RESULTS: Reduced long delay verbal memory and extradimensional set-shifting performance across both time points were found in the HR-well group relative to controls. The HR-MDD group displayed decreased extradimensional set-shifting abilities across both time points as compared with the HC group only. There were no significant performance differences between the two high-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced verbal memory and cognitive flexibility are familial trait markers for vulnerability to mood disorders in individuals with a close family history of bipolar disorder. Both neurocognitive performance deficits appear to be relatively stable over a 2-year time period and do not appear to be linked to the onset of MDD. These findings support their use as stable quantitative endophenotypes for mood disorders.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

Deciphering serology to understand the ecology of infectious diseases in wildlife.

The ecology of infectious disease in wildlife has become a pivotal theme in animal and public health. Studies of infectious disease ecology rely on robust surveillance of pathogens in reservoir hosts, often based on serology, which is the detection of specific antibodies in the blood and is used to infer infection history. However, serological data can be inaccurate for inference to infection history for a variety of reasons. Two major aspects in any serological test can substantially impact results and interpretation of antibody prevalence data: cross-reactivity and cut-off thresholds used to discriminate positive and negative reactions. Given the ubiquitous use of serology as a tool for surveillance and epidemiological modeling of wildlife diseases, it is imperative to consider the strengths and limitations of serological test methodologies and interpretation of results, particularly when using data that may affect management and policy for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in wildlife. Greater consideration of population age structure and cohort representation, serological test suitability and standardized sample collection protocols can ensure that reliable data are obtained for downstream modeling applications to characterize, and evaluate interventions for, wildlife disease systems.

Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions.

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.

Bartonella species in bat flies (Diptera: Nycteribiidae) from western Africa.

Bat flies are obligate ectoparasites of bats and it has been hypothesized that they may be involved in the transmission of Bartonella species between bats. A survey was conducted to identify whether Cyclopodia greefi greefi (Diptera: Nycteribiidae) collected from Ghana and 2 islands in the Gulf of Guinea harbour Bartonella. In total, 137 adult flies removed from Eidolon helvum, the straw-coloured fruit bat, were screened for the presence of Bartonella by culture and PCR analysis. Bartonella DNA was detected in 91 (66·4%) of the specimens examined and 1 strain of a Bartonella sp., initially identified in E. helvum blood from Kenya, was obtained from a bat fly collected in Ghana. This is the first study, to our knowledge, to report the identification and isolation of Bartonella in bat flies from western Africa.

Single incision endoscopic surgery for gynaecomastia.

INTRODUCTION: Surgical excision has been an effective treatment for gynaecomastia. Recently, there has been a shift from the open approach to minimally invasive techniques. In this report we describe our technique which includes endoscopic excision and/or liposuction of gynaecomastia via a single lateral chest wall incision. METHODS: Between May 2007 and April 2010, a total of 12 gynaecomastia patients were treated with liposuction and/or endoscopic excision. Patients were divided into 3 groups: group I; liposuction only, group II; endoscopic excision plus liposuction and group III; endoscopic excision only. One 15 mm incision was made laterally at the anterior axillary line. A vacuum assisted liposuction removing the fatty tissue was performed. Then endoscopic excision of the remaining fibroglandular tissue was done under vision through the same incision. The parynchyma was then dissected into small pieces and pulled out. RESULTS: Group I had liposuction only (n = 4), group II had liposuction combined with endoscopic excision (n = 7) (58%) while group III had endoscopic excision only (n = 1). The mean operative time for liposuction and endoscopic excision was 58 min for each side. Mean hospital stay was 1.4 days. Postoperative complications included infection with abscess formation and one patient had seroma. Mean follow-up was 56 weeks. Eleven out of twelve patients (92%) were satisfied with their results. Long-term follow-up showed that results were stable over time, and no revisions were necessary. CONCLUSION: Endoscopic excision of gynaecomastia through a single lateral chest wall incision is a minimally invasive effective and safe technique for the management of gynaecomastia, with excellent aesthetic results and an acceptable complication rate.

Specific caspase interactions and amplification are involved in selective neuronal vulnerability in Huntington's disease.

Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal dominant progressive neurodegenerative disorder resulting in selective neuronal loss and dysfunction in the striatum and cortex. The molecular pathways leading to the selectivity of neuronal cell death in HD are poorly understood. Proteolytic processing of full-length mutant huntingtin (Htt) and subsequent events may play an important role in the selective neuronal cell death found in this disease. Despite the identification of Htt as a substrate for caspases, it is not known which caspase(s) cleaves Htt in vivo or whether regional expression of caspases contribute to selective neuronal cells loss. Here, we evaluate whether specific caspases are involved in cell death induced by mutant Htt and if this correlates with our recent finding that Htt is cleaved in vivo at the caspase consensus site 552. We find that caspase-2 cleaves Htt selectively at amino acid 552. Further, Htt recruits caspase-2 into an apoptosome-like complex. Binding of caspase-2 to Htt is polyglutamine repeat-length dependent, and therefore may serve as a critical initiation step in HD cell death. This hypothesis is supported by the requirement of caspase-2 for the death of mouse primary striatal cells derived from HD transgenic mice expressing full-length Htt (YAC72). Expression of catalytically inactive (dominant-negative) forms of caspase-2, caspase-7, and to some extent caspase-6, reduced the cell death of YAC72 primary striatal cells, while the catalytically inactive forms of caspase-3, -8, and -9 did not. Histological analysis of post-mortem human brain tissue and YAC72 mice revealed activation of caspases and enhanced caspase-2 immunoreactivity in medium spiny neurons of the striatum and the cortical projection neurons when compared to controls. Further, upregulation of caspase-2 correlates directly with decreased levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor in the cortex and striatum of 3-month YAC72 transgenic mice and therefore suggests that these changes are early events in HD pathogenesis. These data support the involvement of caspase-2 in the selective neuronal cell death associated with HD in the striatum and cortex.

Does screen-detected breast cancer have better survival than symptomatic breast cancer?

OBJECTIVES: Evidence obtained from several randomized control trials suggest that mortality from breast cancer could be reduced by mammographic screening. However, a recent meta-analysis questioned the general acceptance that screening for breast cancer is beneficial. The purpose of the study was to analyze prospectively collected data from our unit and produce overall and comparative 5-year survival rates for screen-detected and symptomatic breast cancer. METHODS: Prospectively collected data on all patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between January 1993 and December 1994 (24 months), and monitored until the end of 1999, were collated and analyzed. Five-year survival was estimated and broken down by age at diagnosis, tumour size, grade and nodal status. The overall 5-year survival for women with screen-detected cancers was compared with that for women with symptomatically presenting cancers. RESULTS: Between January 1993 and December 1994, 308 patients with invasive breast cancer were referred to the unit (162 via the breast screening programme and 146 presenting symptomatically). The overall 5-year survival was 85.5% (confidence interval [CI], 80.8-89.1). Small tumour size, low grade and negative nodal status were associated with higher survival rates. Five-year survival of the screen-detected cancer patients (91.7%; CI, 85.8-95.2) was higher than that of patients presenting symptomatically (78.6%; CI, 70.6-84.6; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that patients with screen-detected breast cancer may have better survival compared to those with symptomatically detected breast cancer. The results support the argument in favour of a beneficial impact of breast screening programmes on patients' survival.

Adeno-associated virus-mediated delivery of BCL-w gene improves outcome after transient focal cerebral ischemia.

A recombinant adeno-associated virus (rAAV) vector was used to overexpress the anti-apoptotic Bcl-2-family protein, BCL-w, in rat brain. Three weeks after injecting the vector into cerebral cortex and striatum on one side, temporary focal ischemia was induced by occlusion of the ipsilateral middle cerebral artery for 90 min, followed by reperfusion for 24 h. BCL-w expression was increased in cerebral cortex and striatum--and in neurons, astroglia and endothelial cells--in the brains of rats that received the rAAV-BCL-w vector, compared to rats given phosphate-buffered saline or a control vector containing the gene for green fluorescent protein. Recipients of the rAAV-BCL-w vector also showed a 30% reduction in infarct size and a 33-40% improvement in neurological function, compared to the control groups. These results provide evidence for a role of BCL-w in regulating histological and functional outcome after focal cerebral ischemia.