Clinical characteristics and outcomes for patients with non­metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

This study used linked, routinely-collected datasets to explore incidence, clinical characteristics and outcomes of prostate cancer (PC) patients who experience a rise in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels despite androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), without evidence of metastases in their patient record, termed non-metastatic castration-resistant PC (nmCRPC). Routinely collected administrative data in Wales were used to identify patients diagnosed with PC and nmCRPC from 2000-2015. Logrank tests and Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare time-to-events across subgroups defined by PSA doubling time and age. Of 38,021 patients identified with PC, 1,465 met nmCRPC criteria. PC incidence increased over the study period, while nmCRPC categorizations reduced. Median time from PC diagnosis to nmCRPC categorization was 3.07 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.91-3.26) and from nmCRPC categorization to metastases/death was 2.86 years (95% CI 2.67-3.09). Shorter PSA doubling time (≤ 10 months, versus > 10 months) was associated with reduced time to metastases or death (2.11 years [95% CI 1.92-2.30] versus 5.22 years [95% CI 4.87-5.51]). Age was not significantly associated with time to metastases/death. Our findings highlight key clinical characteristics and outcomes for patients with nmCRPC prior to the introduction of recently approved treatments.

The Importance of Model Structure in the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Primary Care Interventions for the Management of Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Management of hypertension can lead to significant reductions in blood pressure, thereby reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease. Modeling the course of cardiovascular disease is not without complications, and uncertainty surrounding the structure of a model will almost always arise once a choice of a model structure is defined. OBJECTIVES: To provide a practical illustration of the impact on the results of cost-effectiveness of changing or adapting model structures in a previously published cost-utility analysis of a primary care intervention for the management of hypertension Targets and Self-Management for the Control of Blood Pressure in Stroke and at Risk Groups (TASMIN-SR). METHODS: The case study assessed the structural uncertainty arising from model structure and from the exclusion of secondary events. Four alternative model structures were implemented. Long-term cost-effectiveness was estimated and the results compared with those from the TASMIN-SR model. RESULTS: The main cost-effectiveness results obtained in the TASMIN-SR study did not change with the implementation of alternative model structures. Choice of model type was limited to a cohort Markov model, and because of the lack of epidemiological data, only model 4 captured structural uncertainty arising from the exclusion of secondary events in the case study model. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that the main conclusions drawn from the TASMIN-SR model of cost-effectiveness were robust to changes in model structure and the inclusion of secondary events. Even though one of the models produced results that were different to those of TASMIN-SR, the fact that the main conclusions were identical suggests that a more parsimonious model may have sufficed.

The Effects of Environmental Factors on the Efficiency of Clinical Commissioning Groups in England: A Data Envelopment Analysis.

Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) were created in 2013 to make the NHS more responsive, efficient and accountable. A large number of different indicators can be used to measure the quality and outcomes of services provided by CCGs, however there is currently no single measure of overall efficiency available. The performance of CCGs may also be confounded by environmental factors such as deprivation, population size and burden of disease. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a linear programming technique that can be used to measure the relative efficiency of a given set of organisations. To use DEA to measure the efficiency of English CCGs and assess the impact of environmental factors. This study estimates the technical efficiency of 208 CCGs in England using DEA. The inputs and outputs used include budget allocation, number of general practitioners, mortality rates, patient satisfaction and Quality and Outcomes Framework achievement scores. Regression analysis is used to assess the effects of environmental factors on efficiency, such as population size, prevalence of disease, and socio-economic status. Twenty-three percent (47/208) of CCGs were efficient compared to the others. Three environmental factors were statistically significant predictors of efficiency: CCGs with smaller population sizes were more efficient than those with larger ones, while high unemployment rates and a high prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease led to a decrease in efficiency scores. Comparative deprivation was not a significant predictor of efficiency. The finding that the relationship between deprivation and efficiency is not statistically significant suggests that NHS England's adjustment for environmental factors within the CCG-level budget allocation is broadly successful. This study shows the potential of DEA for assessing technical efficiency at CCG-level in the English NHS.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of different systolic blood pressure targets for people with a history of stroke or transient ischaemic attack: Economic analysis of the PAST-BP study.

BACKGROUND: The PAST-BP trial found that using a lower systolic blood pressure target (<130 mmHg or lower versus <140 mmHg) in a primary care population with prevalent cerebrovascular disease was associated with a small additional reduction in blood pressure (2.9 mmHg). OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost effectiveness of an intensive systolic blood pressure target (<130 mmHg or lower) compared with a standard target (<140 mmHg) in people with a history of stroke or transient ischaemic attack on general practice stroke/transient ischaemic attack registers in England. METHODS: A Markov model with a one-year time cycle and a 30-year time horizon was used to estimate the cost per quality-adjusted life year of an intensive target versus a standard target. Individual patient level data were used from the PAST-BP trial with regard to change in blood pressure and numbers of primary care consultations over a 12-month period. Published sources were used to estimate life expectancy and risks of cardiovascular events and their associated costs and utilities. RESULTS: In the base-case results, aiming for an intensive blood pressure target was dominant, with the incremental lifetime costs being £169 lower per patient than for the standard blood pressure target with a 0.08 quality-adjusted life year gain. This was robust to sensitivity analyses, unless intensive blood pressure lowering reduced quality of life by 2% or more. CONCLUSION: Aiming for a systolic blood pressure target of <130 mmHg or lower is cost effective in people who have had a stroke/transient ischaemic attack in the community, but it is difficult to separate out the impact of the lower target from the impact of more active management of blood pressure.

Cost-effectiveness of self-management of blood pressure in hypertensive patients over 70 years with suboptimal control and established cardiovascular disease or additional cardiovascular risk diseases (TASMIN-SR).

BACKGROUND: A previous economic analysis of self-management, that is, self-monitoring with self-titration of antihypertensive medication evaluated cost-effectiveness among patients with uncomplicated hypertension. This study considered cost-effectiveness of self-management in those with raised blood pressure plus diabetes, chronic kidney disease and/or previous cardiovascular disease. DESIGN AND METHODS: A Markov model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of self-management of blood pressure in a cohort of 70-year-old 'high risk' patients, compared with usual care. The model used the results of the TASMIN-SR trial. A cost-utility analysis was undertaken from a UK health and social care perspective, taking into account lifetime costs of treatment, cardiovascular events and quality adjusted life years. A subgroup analysis ran the model separately for men and women. Deterministic sensitivity analyses examined the effect of different time horizons and reduced effectiveness of self-management. RESULTS: Base-case results indicated that self-management was cost-effective compared with usual care, resulting in more quality adjusted life years (0.21) and cost savings (-£830) per patient. There was a 99% chance of the intervention being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 per quality adjusted life year gained. Similar results were found for separate cohorts of men and women. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses, provided that the blood pressure lowering effect of self-management was maintained for more than a year. CONCLUSION: Self-management of blood pressure in high-risk people with poorly controlled hypertension not only reduces blood pressure, compared with usual care, but also represents a cost-effective use of healthcare resources.

Do Economic Evaluations in Primary Care Prevention and the Management of Hypertension Conform to Good Practice Guidelines? A Systematic Review.

Background: Results of previous research have identified the need for further investigation into the compliance with good practice guidelines for current decision-analytic modeling (DAM). Objective: To identify the extent to which recent model-based economic evaluations of interventions focused on lowering the blood pressure (BP) of patients with hypertension conform to published guidelines for DAM in health care using a five-dimension framework developed to assess compliance to DAM guidelines. Methods: A systematic review of English language articles was undertaken to identify published model-based economic evaluations that examined interventions aimed at lowering BP. The review covered the period January 2000 to March 2015 and included the following electronic bibliographic databases: EMBASE and Medline via Ovid interface and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination's (CRD) NHS-EED. Data were extracted based on different components of good practice across five dimensions utilizing a framework to assess compliance to DAM guidelines. Results: Thirteen articles were included in this review. The review found limited compliance to good practice DAM guidelines, which was most frequently justified by the lack of data. Conclusions: The assessment of structural uncertainty cannot yet be considered common practice in primary prevention and management of hypertension, and researchers seem to face difficulties with identifying sources of structural uncertainty and then handling them correctly. Additional guidelines are needed to aid researchers in identifying and managing sources of potential structural uncertainty. Adherence to guidelines is not always possible and it does pose challenges, in particular when there are limitations due to data availability that restrict, for example, a validation process.

Cost-effectiveness of optimizing acute stroke care services for thrombolysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Thrombolysis in acute stroke is effective up to 4.5 hours after symptom onset but relies on early recognition, prompt arrival in hospital, and timely brain scanning. This study aimed to establish the cost-effectiveness of increasing thrombolysis rates through a series of hypothetical change strategies designed to optimize the acute care pathway for stroke. METHODS: A decision-tree model was constructed, which relates the acute management of patients with suspected stroke from symptom onset to outcome. Current practice was modeled and compared with 7 change strategies designed to facilitate wider eligibility for thrombolysis. The model basecase consisted of data from consenting patients following the acute stroke pathway recruited in participating hospitals with data on effectiveness of treatment and costs from published sources. RESULTS: All change strategies were cost saving while increasing quality-adjusted life years gained. Using realistic estimates of effectiveness, the change strategy with the largest potential benefit was that of better recording of onset time, which resulted in 3.3 additional quality-adjusted life years and a cost saving of US $46,000 per 100,000 population. All strategies increased the number of thrombolysed patients and the number requiring urgent brain imaging (by 9% to 21% dependent on the scenario). Assuming a willingness-to-pay of US $30,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained, the potential budget available to deliver the interventions in each strategy ranged from US $50,000 to US $144,000. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that any strategy that increases thrombolysis rates will result in cost savings and improved patient quality of life. Healthcare commissioners could consider this model when planning improvements in stroke care.