Data-Driven Engineering of Social Dynamics: Pattern Matching and Profit Maximization.

In this paper, we define a new problem related to social media, namely, the data-driven engineering of social dynamics. More precisely, given a set of observations from the past, we aim at finding the best short-term intervention that can lead to predefined long-term outcomes. Toward this end, we propose a general formulation that covers two useful engineering tasks as special cases, namely, pattern matching and profit maximization. By incorporating a deep learning model, we derive a solution using convex relaxation and quadratic-programming transformation. Moreover, we propose a data-driven evaluation method in place of the expensive field experiments. Using a Twitter dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our dynamics engineering approach for both pattern matching and profit maximization, and study the multifaceted interplay among several important factors of dynamics engineering, such as solution validity, pattern-matching accuracy, and intervention cost. Finally, the method we propose is general enough to work with multi-dimensional time series, so it can potentially be used in many other applications.

Multi-scale compositionality: identifying the compositional structures of social dynamics using deep learning.

OBJECTIVE: Social media exhibit rich yet distinct temporal dynamics which cover a wide range of different scales. In order to study this complex dynamics, two fundamental questions revolve around (1) the signatures of social dynamics at different time scales, and (2) the way in which these signatures interact and form higher-level meanings. METHOD: In this paper, we propose the Recursive Convolutional Bayesian Model (RCBM) to address both of these fundamental questions. The key idea behind our approach consists of constructing a deep-learning framework using specialized convolution operators that are designed to exploit the inherent heterogeneity of social dynamics. RCBM's runtime and convergence properties are guaranteed by formal analyses. RESULTS: Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches both in terms of solution quality and computational efficiency. Indeed, by applying the proposed method on two social network datasets, Twitter and Yelp, we are able to identify the compositional structures that can accurately characterize the complex social dynamics from these two social media. We further show that identifying these patterns can enable new applications such as anomaly detection and improved social dynamics forecasting. Finally, our analysis offers new insights on understanding and engineering social media dynamics, with direct applications to opinion spreading and online content promotion.