Connecting higher-order interactions with ecological stability in experimental aquatic food webs.

Community ecology is built on theories that represent the strength of interactions between species as pairwise links. Higher-order interactions (HOIs) occur when a species changes the pairwise interaction between a focal pair. Recent theoretical work has highlighted the stabilizing role of HOIs for large, simulated communities, yet it remains unclear how important higher-order effects are in real communities. Here, we used experimental communities of aquatic protists to examine the relationship between HOIs and stability (as measured by the persistence of a species in a community). We cultured a focal pair of consumers in the presence of additional competitors and a predator and collected time series data of their abundances. We then fitted competition models with and without HOIs to measure interaction strength between the focal pair across different community compositions. We used survival analysis to measure the persistence of individual species. We found evidence that additional species positively affected persistence of the focal species and that HOIs were present in most of our communities. However, persistence was only linked to HOIs for one of the focal species. Our results vindicate community ecology theory positing that species interactions may deviate from assumptions of pairwise interactions, opening avenues to consider possible consequences for coexistence and stability.

Constraining nonlinear time series modeling with the metabolic theory of ecology.

Forecasting the response of ecological systems to environmental change is a critical challenge for sustainable management. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) posits scaling of biological rates with temperature, but it has had limited application to population dynamic forecasting. Here we use the temperature dependence of the MTE to constrain empirical dynamic modeling (EDM), an equation-free nonlinear machine learning approach for forecasting. By rescaling time with temperature and modeling dynamics on a "metabolic time step," our method (MTE-EDM) improved forecast accuracy in 18 of 19 empirical ectotherm time series (by 19% on average), with the largest gains in more seasonal environments. MTE-EDM assumes that temperature affects only the rate, rather than the form, of population dynamics, and that interacting species have approximately similar temperature dependence. A review of laboratory studies suggests these assumptions are reasonable, at least approximately, though not for all ecological systems. Our approach highlights how to combine modern data-driven forecasting techniques with ecological theory and mechanistic understanding to predict the response of complex ecosystems to temperature variability and trends.

Predicting effects of multiple interacting global change drivers across trophic levels.

Global change encompasses many co-occurring anthropogenic drivers, which can act synergistically or antagonistically on ecological systems. Predicting how different global change drivers simultaneously contribute to observed biodiversity change is a key challenge for ecology and conservation. However, we lack the mechanistic understanding of how multiple global change drivers influence the vital rates of multiple interacting species. We propose that reaction norms, the relationships between a driver and vital rates like growth, mortality, and consumption, provide insights to the underlying mechanisms of community responses to multiple drivers. Understanding how multiple drivers interact to affect demographic rates using a reaction-norm perspective can improve our ability to make predictions of interactions at higher levels of organization-that is, community and food web. Building on the framework of consumer-resource interactions and widely studied thermal performance curves, we illustrate how joint driver impacts can be scaled up from the population to the community level. A simple proof-of-concept model demonstrates how reaction norms of vital rates predict the prevalence of driver interactions at the community level. A literature search suggests that our proposed approach is not yet used in multiple driver research. We outline how realistic response surfaces (i.e., multidimensional reaction norms) can be inferred by parametric and nonparametric approaches. Response surfaces have the potential to strengthen our understanding of how multiple drivers affect communities as well as improve our ability to predict when interactive effects emerge, two of the major challenges of ecology today.

Dispersal syndromes in challenging environments: A cross-species experiment.

Dispersal is a central biological process tightly integrated into life-histories, morphology, physiology and behaviour. Such associations, or syndromes, are anticipated to impact the eco-evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations, and cascade into ecosystem processes. As for dispersal on its own, these syndromes are likely neither fixed nor random, but conditional on the experienced environment. We experimentally studied how dispersal propensity varies with individuals' phenotype and local environmental harshness using 15 species ranging from protists to vertebrates. We reveal a general phenotypic dispersal syndrome across studied species, with dispersers being larger, more active and having a marked locomotion-oriented morphology and a strengthening of the link between dispersal and some phenotypic traits with environmental harshness. Our proof-of-concept metacommunity model further reveals cascading effects of context-dependent syndromes on the local and regional organisation of functional diversity. Our study opens new avenues to advance our understanding of the functioning of spatially structured populations, communities and ecosystems.

Forecasting in the face of ecological complexity: Number and strength of species interactions determine forecast skill in ecological communities.

The potential for forecasting the dynamics of ecological systems is currently unclear, with contrasting opinions regarding its feasibility due to ecological complexity. To investigate forecast skill within and across systems, we monitored a microbial system exposed to either constant or fluctuating temperatures in a 5-month-long laboratory experiment. We tested how forecasting of species abundances depends on the number and strength of interactions and on model size (number of predictors). We also tested how greater system complexity (i.e. the fluctuating temperatures) impacted these relations. We found that the more interactions a species had, the weaker these interactions were and the better its abundance was predicted. Forecast skill increased with model size. Greater system complexity decreased forecast skill for three out of eight species. These insights into how abundance prediction depends on the connectedness of the species within the system and on overall system complexity could improve species forecasting and monitoring.

Contrasting resistance and resilience to light variation of the coupled oxic and anoxic components of an experimental microbial ecosystem.

Understanding how microbial communities of aquatic ecosystems respond to environmental change remains a critical challenge in microbial ecology. In this study, we used light-dependent oxic-anoxic micro-ecosystems to understand how the functioning and diversity of aerobic and anaerobic lake analog communities are affected by a pulse light deprivation. Continuous measurements of oxygen concentration were made and a time series of full-length 16S rRNA sequencing was used to quantify changes in alpha- and beta diversity. In the upper oxic layer, oxygen concentration decreased significantly under light reduction, but showed resilience in daily mean, minimum, and maximum after light conditions were restored to control level. Only the amplitude of diurnal fluctuations in oxygen concentrations did not recover fully, and instead tended to remain lower in treated ecosystems. Alpha diversity of the upper oxic layer communities showed a delayed increase after light conditions were restored, and was not resilient in the longer term. In contrast, alpha diversity of the anoxic lower layer communities increased during the light reduction, but was resilient in the longer term. Community composition changed significantly during light reduction, and showed resilience in the oxic layer and lack of resilience in the anoxic layer. Alpha diversity and the amplitude of daily oxygen fluctuations within and among treatments were strongly correlated, suggesting that higher diversity could lead to less variable oxygen concentrations, or vice versa. Our experiment showed that light deprivation induces multifaceted responses of community function (oxygen respiration) and structure, hence focusing on a single stability component could potentially be misleading.

Refocusing multiple stressor research around the targets and scales of ecological impacts.

Ecological communities face a variety of environmental and anthropogenic stressors acting simultaneously. Stressor impacts can combine additively or can interact, causing synergistic or antagonistic effects. Our knowledge of when and how interactions arise is limited, as most models and experiments only consider the effect of a small number of non-interacting stressors at one or few scales of ecological organization. This is concerning because it could lead to significant underestimations or overestimations of threats to biodiversity. Furthermore, stressors have been largely classified by their source rather than by the mechanisms and ecological scales at which they act (the target). Here, we argue, first, that a more nuanced classification of stressors by target and ecological scale can generate valuable new insights and hypotheses about stressor interactions. Second, that the predictability of multiple stressor effects, and consistent patterns in their impacts, can be evaluated by examining the distribution of stressor effects across targets and ecological scales. Third, that a variety of existing mechanistic and statistical modelling tools can play an important role in our framework and advance multiple stressor research.

Species multidimensional effects explain idiosyncratic responses of communities to environmental change.

Environmental change can alter species' abundances within communities consistently; for example, increasing all abundances by the same percentage, or more idiosyncratically. Here, we show how comparing effects of temperature on species grown in isolation and when grown together helps our understanding of how ecological communities more generally respond to environmental change. In particular, we find that the shape of the feasibility domain (the parameter space of carrying capacities compatible with positive species' abundances) helps to explain the composition of experimental microbial communities under changing environmental conditions. First, we introduce a measure to quantify the asymmetry of a community's feasibility domain using the column vectors of the corresponding interaction matrix. These column vectors describe the effects each species has on all other species in the community (hereafter referred to as species' multidimensional effects). We show that as the asymmetry of the feasibility domain increases the relationship between species' abundance when grown together and when grown in isolation weakens. We then show that microbial communities experiencing different temperature environments exhibit patterns consistent with this theory. Specifically, communities at warmer temperatures show relatively more asymmetry; thus, the idiosyncrasy of responses is higher compared with that in communities at cooler temperatures. These results suggest that while species' interactions are typically defined at the pairwise level, multispecies dynamics can be better understood by focusing on the effects of these interactions at the community level.

The interplay between movement, morphology and dispersal in Tetrahymena ciliates.

Understanding how and why individual movement translates into dispersal between populations is a long-term goal in ecology. Movement is broadly defined as 'any change in the spatial location of an individual', whereas dispersal is more narrowly defined as a movement that may lead to gene flow. Because the former may create the condition for the latter, behavioural decisions that lead to dispersal may be detectable in underlying movement behaviour. In addition, dispersing individuals also have specific sets of morphological and behavioural traits that help them coping with the costs of movement and dispersal, and traits that mitigate costs should be under selection and evolve if they have a genetic basis. Here, we experimentally study the relationships between movement behaviour, morphology and dispersal across 44 genotypes of the actively dispersing unicellular, aquatic model organism Tetrahymena thermophila. We used two-patch populations to quantify individual movement trajectories, as well as activity, morphology and dispersal rate. First, we studied variation in movement behaviour among and within genotypes (i.e. between dispersers and residents) and tested whether this variation can be explained by morphology. Then, we addressed how much the dispersal rate is driven by differences in the underlying movement behaviour. Genotypes revealed clear differences in terms of movement speed and linearity. We also detected marked movement differences between resident and dispersing individuals, mediated by the genotype. Movement variation was partly explained by morphological properties such as cell size and shape, with larger cells consistently showing higher movement speed and higher linearity. Genetic differences in activity and movement were positively related to the observed dispersal and jointly explained 47% of the variation in dispersal rate. Our study shows that a detailed understanding of the interplay between morphology, movement and dispersal may have potential to improve dispersal predictions over broader spatio-temporal scales.

Warming can destabilize predator-prey interactions by shifting the functional response from Type III to Type II.

The potential for climate change and temperature shifts to affect community stability remains relatively unknown. One mechanism by which temperature may affect stability is by altering trophic interactions. The functional response quantifies the per capita resource consumption by the consumer as a function of resource abundance and is a suitable framework for the description of nonlinear trophic interactions. We studied the effect of temperature on a ciliate predator-prey pair (Spathidium sp. and Dexiostoma campylum) by estimating warming effects on the functional response and on the associated conversion efficiency of the predator. We recorded prey and predator dynamics over 24 hr and at three temperature levels (15, 20 and 25°C). To these data, we fitted a population dynamic model including the predator functional response, such that the functional response parameters (space clearance rate, handling time and density dependence of space clearance rate) were estimated for each temperature separately. To evaluate the ecological significance of temperature effects on the functional response parameters, we simulated predator-prey population dynamics. We considered the predator-prey system to be destabilized, if the prey was driven extinct by the predator. Effects of increased temperature included a transition of the functional response from a Type III to a Type II and an increase of the conversion efficiency of the predator. The simulated population dynamics showed a destabilization of the system with warming, with greater risk of prey extinction at higher temperatures likely caused by the transition from a Type III to a Type II functional response. Warming-induced shifts from a Type III to II are not commonly considered in modelling studies that investigate how population dynamics respond to warming. Future studies should investigate the mechanism and generality of the effect we observed and simulate temperature effects in complex food webs including shifts in the type of the functional response as well as consider the possibility of a temperature-dependent conversion efficiency.

Warming reduces the effects of enrichment on stability and functioning across levels of organisation in an aquatic microbial ecosystem.

Warming and nutrient enrichment are major environmental factors shaping ecological dynamics. However, cross-scale investigation of their combined effects by linking theory and experiments is lacking. We collected data from aquatic microbial ecosystems investigating the interactive effects of warming (constant and rising temperatures) and enrichment across levels of organisation and contrasted them with community models based on metabolic theory. We found high agreement between our observations and theoretical predictions: we observed in many cases the predicted antagonistic effects of high temperature and high enrichment across levels of organisation. Temporal stability of total biomass decreased with warming but did not differ across enrichment levels. Constant and rising temperature treatments with identical mean temperature did not show qualitative differences. Overall, we conclude that model and empirical results are in broad agreement due to robustness of the effects of temperature and enrichment, that the mitigating effects of temperature on effects of enrichment may be common, and that models based on metabolic theory provide qualitatively robust predictions of the combined ecological effects of enrichment and temperature.

Bottom-up and top-down control of dispersal across major organismal groups.

Ecology and evolution unfold in spatially structured communities, where dispersal links dynamics across scales. Because dispersal is multicausal, identifying general drivers remains challenging. In a coordinated distributed experiment spanning organisms from protozoa to vertebrates, we tested whether two fundamental determinants of local dynamics, top-down and bottom-up control, generally explain active dispersal. We show that both factors consistently increased emigration rates and use metacommunity modelling to highlight consequences on local and regional dynamics.

Biodiversity increases and decreases ecosystem stability.

Losses and gains in species diversity affect ecological stability1-7 and the sustainability of ecosystem functions and services8-13. Experiments and models have revealed positive, negative and no effects of diversity on individual components of stability, such as temporal variability, resistance and resilience2,3,6,11,12,14. How these stability components covary remains poorly understood15. Similarly, the effects of diversity on overall ecosystem stability16, which is conceptually akin to ecosystem multifunctionality17,18, remain unknown. Here we studied communities of aquatic ciliates to understand how temporal variability, resistance and overall ecosystem stability responded to diversity (that is, species richness) in a large experiment involving 690 micro-ecosystems sampled 19 times over 40 days, resulting in 12,939 samplings. Species richness increased temporal stability but decreased resistance to warming. Thus, two stability components covaried negatively along the diversity gradient. Previous biodiversity manipulation studies rarely reported such negative covariation despite general predictions of the negative effects of diversity on individual stability components3. Integrating our findings with the ecosystem multifunctionality concept revealed hump- and U-shaped effects of diversity on overall ecosystem stability. That is, biodiversity can increase overall ecosystem stability when biodiversity is low, and decrease it when biodiversity is high, or the opposite with a U-shaped relationship. The effects of diversity on ecosystem multifunctionality would also be hump- or U-shaped if diversity had positive effects on some functions and negative effects on others. Linking the ecosystem multifunctionality concept and ecosystem stability can transform the perceived effects of diversity on ecological stability and may help to translate this science into policy-relevant information.

Temporal scale dependent interactions between multiple environmental disturbances in microcosm ecosystems.

Global environmental change has negative impacts on ecological systems, impacting the stable provision of functions, goods, and services. Whereas effects of individual environmental changes (e.g. temperature change or change in resource availability) are reasonably well understood, we lack information about if and how multiple changes interact. We examined interactions among four types of environmental disturbance (temperature, nutrient ratio, carbon enrichment, and light) in a fully factorial design using a microbial aquatic ecosystem and observed responses of dissolved oxygen saturation at three temporal scales (resistance, resilience, and return time). We tested whether multiple disturbances combine in a dominant, additive, or interactive fashion, and compared the predictability of dissolved oxygen across scales. Carbon enrichment and shading reduced oxygen concentration in the short term (i.e. resistance); although no other effects or interactions were statistically significant, resistance decreased as the number of disturbances increased. In the medium term, only enrichment accelerated recovery, but none of the other effects (including interactions) were significant. In the long term, enrichment and shading lengthened return times, and we found significant two-way synergistic interactions between disturbances. The best performing model (dominant, additive, or interactive) depended on the temporal scale of response. In the short term (i.e. for resistance), the dominance model predicted resistance of dissolved oxygen best, due to a large effect of carbon enrichment, whereas none of the models could predict the medium term (i.e. resilience). The long-term response was best predicted by models including interactions among disturbances. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the temporal scale of responses when researching the effects of environmental disturbances on ecosystems.

Dynamic species classification of microorganisms across time, abiotic and biotic environments-A sliding window approach.

The development of video-based monitoring methods allows for rapid, dynamic and accurate monitoring of individuals or communities, compared to slower traditional methods, with far reaching ecological and evolutionary applications. Large amounts of data are generated using video-based methods, which can be effectively processed using machine learning (ML) algorithms into meaningful ecological information. ML uses user defined classes (e.g. species), derived from a subset (i.e. training data) of video-observed quantitative features (e.g. phenotypic variation), to infer classes in subsequent observations. However, phenotypic variation often changes due to environmental conditions, which may lead to poor classification, if environmentally induced variation in phenotypes is not accounted for. Here we describe a framework for classifying species under changing environmental conditions based on the random forest classification. A sliding window approach was developed that restricts temporal and environmentally conditions to improve the classification. We tested our approach by applying the classification framework to experimental data. The experiment used a set of six ciliate species to monitor changes in community structure and behavior over hundreds of generations, in dozens of species combinations and across a temperature gradient. Differences in biotic and abiotic conditions caused simplistic classification approaches to be unsuccessful. In contrast, the sliding window approach allowed classification to be highly successful, as phenotypic differences driven by environmental change, could be captured by the classifier. Importantly, classification using the random forest algorithm showed comparable success when validated against traditional, slower, manual identification. Our framework allows for reliable classification in dynamic environments, and may help to improve strategies for long-term monitoring of species in changing environments. Our classification pipeline can be applied in fields assessing species community dynamics, such as eco-toxicology, ecology and evolutionary ecology.

Developing and Integrating Advanced Movement Features Improves Automated Classification of Ciliate Species.

Recent advances in tracking technologies such as GPS or video tracking systems describe the movement paths of individuals in unprecedented details and are increasingly used in different fields, including ecology. However, extracting information from raw movement data requires advanced analysis techniques, for instance to infer behaviors expressed during a certain period of the recorded trajectory, or gender or species identity in case data is obtained from remote tracking. In this paper, we address how different movement features affect the ability to automatically classify the species identity, using a dataset of unicellular microbes (i.e., ciliates). Previously, morphological attributes and simple movement metrics, such as speed, were used for classifying ciliate species. Here, we demonstrate that adding advanced movement features, in particular such based on discrete wavelet transform, to morphological features can improve classification. These results may have practical applications in automated monitoring of waste water facilities as well as environmental monitoring of aquatic systems.

BEMOVI, software for extracting behavior and morphology from videos, illustrated with analyses of microbes.

Microbes are critical components of ecosystems and provide vital services (e.g., photosynthesis, decomposition, nutrient recycling). From the diverse roles microbes play in natural ecosystems, high levels of functional diversity result. Quantifying this diversity is challenging, because it is weakly associated with morphological differentiation. In addition, the small size of microbes hinders morphological and behavioral measurements at the individual level, as well as interactions between individuals. Advances in microbial community genetics and genomics, flow cytometry and digital analysis of still images are promising approaches. They miss out, however, on a very important aspect of populations and communities: the behavior of individuals. Video analysis complements these methods by providing in addition to abundance and trait measurements, detailed behavioral information, capturing dynamic processes such as movement, and hence has the potential to describe the interactions between individuals. We introduce BEMOVI, a package using the R and ImageJ software, to extract abundance, morphology, and movement data for tens to thousands of individuals in a video. Through a set of functions BEMOVI identifies individuals present in a video, reconstructs their movement trajectories through space and time, and merges this information into a single database. BEMOVI is a modular set of functions, which can be customized to allow for peculiarities of the videos to be analyzed, in terms of organisms features (e.g., morphology or movement) and how they can be distinguished from the background. We illustrate the validity and accuracy of the method with an example on experimental multispecies communities of aquatic protists. We show high correspondence between manual and automatic counts and illustrate how simultaneous time series of abundance, morphology, and behavior are obtained from BEMOVI. We further demonstrate how the trait data can be used with machine learning to automatically classify individuals into species and that information on movement behavior improves the predictive ability.

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants.

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.

Dispersal propensity in Tetrahymena thermophila ciliates - a reaction norm perspective.

Dispersal and phenotypic plasticity are two main ways for species to deal with rapid changes of their environments. Understanding how genotypes (G), environments (E), and their interaction (genotype and environment; G × E) each affects dispersal propensity is therefore instrumental for predicting the ecological and evolutionary responses of species under global change. Here we used an actively dispersing ciliate to quantify the contributions of G, E, and G × E on dispersal propensity, exposing 44 different genotypes to three different environmental contexts (densities in isogenotype populations). Moreover, we assessed the condition dependence of dispersal, that is, whether dispersal is related to morphological, physiological, or behavioral traits. We found that genotypes showed marked differences in dispersal propensity and that dispersal is plastically adjusted to density, with the overall trend for genotypes to exhibit negative density-dependent dispersal. A small, but significant G × E interaction indicates genetic variability in plasticity and therefore some potential for dispersal plasticity to evolve. We also show evidence consistent with condition-dependent dispersal suggesting that genotypes also vary in how individual condition is linked to dispersal under different environmental contexts thereby generating complex dispersal behavior due to only three variables (genes, environment, and individual condition).