Using a decision tree to predict the number of COVID cases: a tutorial for beginners.

This manuscript describes the development of a module that is part of a learning platform named "NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning" https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox . The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on machine learning and decision tree concepts in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses. Machine learning (ML) is an important tool in biomedical research and can lead to improvements in diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of diseases. During the COVID pandemic ML was used for predictions at the patient and community levels. Given its ubiquity, it is important that future doctors, researchers and teachers get acquainted with ML and its contributions to research. Our goal is to make it easier for everyone to learn about machine learning. The learning module we present here is based on a small COVID dataset, videos, annotated code and the use of Google Colab or the Google Cloud Platform (GCP). The benefit of these platforms is that students do not have to set up a programming environment on their computer which saves time and is also an important democratization factor. The module focuses on learning the basics of decision trees by applying them to COVID data. It introduces basic terminology used in supervised machine learning and its relevance to research. Our experience with biology students at San Francisco State University suggests that the material increases interest in ML.

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges.

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Reversion is most likely under high mutation supply when compensatory mutations do not fully restore fitness costs.

The dynamics of adaptation, reversion, and compensation have been central topics in microbial evolution, and several studies have attempted to resolve the population genetics underlying how these dynamics occur. However, questions remain regarding how certain features-the evolution of mutators and whether compensatory mutations alleviate costs fully or partially-may influence the evolutionary dynamics of compensation and reversion. In this study, we attempt to explain findings from experimental evolution by utilizing computational and theoretical approaches toward a more refined understanding of how mutation rate and the fitness effects of compensatory mutations influence adaptive dynamics. We find that high mutation rates increase the probability of reversion toward the wild type when compensation is only partial. However, the existence of even a single fully compensatory mutation is associated with a dramatically decreased probability of reversion to the wild type. These findings help to explain specific results from experimental evolution, where compensation was observed in nonmutator strains, but reversion (sometimes with compensation) was observed in mutator strains, indicating that real-world compensatory mutations are often unable to fully alleviate the costs associated with adaptation. Our findings emphasize the potential role of the supply and quality of mutations in crafting the dynamics of adaptation and reversal, with implications for theoretical population genetics and for biomedical contexts like the evolution of antibiotic resistance.

Ten simple rules for designing and running a computing minor for bio/chem students.

Science students increasingly need programming and data science skills to be competitive in the modern workforce. However, at our university (San Francisco State University), until recently, almost no biology, biochemistry, and chemistry students (from here bio/chem students) completed a minor in computer science. To change this, a new minor in computing applications, which is informally known as the Promoting Inclusivity in Computing (PINC) minor, was established in 2016. Here, we present the lessons we learned from our experience in a set of 10 rules. The first 3 rules focus on setting up the program so that it interests students in biology, chemistry, and biochemistry. Rules 4 through 8 focus on how the classes of the program are taught to make them interesting for our students and to provide the students with the support they need. The last 2 rules are about what happens "behind the scenes" of running a program with many people from several departments involved.

Assessing in vivo mutation frequencies and creating a high-resolution genome-wide map of fitness costs of Hepatitis C virus.

Like many viruses, Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) has a high mutation rate, which helps the virus adapt quickly, but mutations come with fitness costs. Fitness costs can be studied by different approaches, such as experimental or frequency-based approaches. The frequency-based approach is particularly useful to estimate in vivo fitness costs, but this approach works best with deep sequencing data from many hosts are. In this study, we applied the frequency-based approach to a large dataset of 195 patients and estimated the fitness costs of mutations at 7957 sites along the HCV genome. We used beta regression and random forest models to better understand how different factors influenced fitness costs. Our results revealed that costs of nonsynonymous mutations were three times higher than those of synonymous mutations, and mutations at nucleotides A or T had higher costs than those at C or G. Genome location had a modest effect, with lower costs for mutations in HVR1 and higher costs for mutations in Core and NS5B. Resistance mutations were, on average, costlier than other mutations. Our results show that in vivo fitness costs of mutations can be site and virus specific, reinforcing the utility of constructing in vivo fitness cost maps of viral genomes.

SCIP: a self-paced summer coding program creates community and increases coding confidence.

In 2020, many students lost summer opportunities due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We wanted to offer students an opportunity to learn computational skills and be part of a community while stuck at home. Because the pandemic created an unexpected research and academic situation, it was unclear how to best support students to learn and build community online. We used lessons learned from literature and our own experience to design, run and test an online program for students called the Science Coding Immersion Program (SCIP). In our program, students worked in teams for 8 hours a week, with one participant as the team leader and Zoom host. Teams worked on an online R or Python class at their own pace with support on Slack from the organizing team. For motivation and career advice, we hosted a weekly webinar with guest speakers. We used pre- and post-program surveys to determine how different aspects of the program impacted students. We were able to recruit a large and diverse group of participants who were happy with the program, found community in their team, and improved their coding confidence. We hope that our work will inspire others to start their own version of SCIP.

Student-Authored Scientist Spotlights: Investigating the Impacts of Engaging Undergraduates as Developers of Inclusive Curriculum through a Service-Learning Course.

Scientist Spotlights-curricular materials that employ the personal and professional stories of scientists from diverse backgrounds-have previously been shown to positively influence undergraduate students' relatability to and perceptions of scientists. We hypothesized that engaging students in authoring Scientist Spotlights might produce curricular materials of similar impact, as well as provide a mechanism for student involvement as partners in science education reform. To test this idea and investigate the impact of student-authored Scientist Spotlights, we developed a service-learning course in which teams of biology students partnered with an instructor to develop and implement Scientist Spotlights in a biology course. Results revealed that exposure to three or four student-authored Scientist Spotlights significantly shifted peers' perceptions of scientists in all partner courses. Interestingly, student-authored Scientist Spotlights shifted peers' relatability to scientists similarly among both white students and students of color. Further, student authors themselves showed increases in their relatability to scientists. Finally, a department-wide survey demonstrated significant differences in students' perceptions of scientist representation between courses with and without student-authored Spotlights. Results suggest that engaging students as authors of inclusive curricular materials and partners in reform is a promising approach to promoting inclusion and addressing representation in science.

Understanding patterns of HIV multi-drug resistance through models of temporal and spatial drug heterogeneity.

Triple-drug therapies have transformed HIV from a fatal condition to a chronic one. These therapies should prevent HIV drug resistance evolution, because one or more drugs suppress any partially resistant viruses. In practice, such therapies drastically reduced, but did not eliminate, resistance evolution. In this article, we reanalyze published data from an evolutionary perspective and demonstrate several intriguing patterns about HIV resistance evolution - resistance evolves (1) even after years on successful therapy, (2) sequentially, often via one mutation at a time and (3) in a partially predictable order. We describe how these observations might emerge under two models of HIV drugs varying in space or time. Despite decades of work in this area, much opportunity remains to create models with realistic parameters for three drugs, and to match model outcomes to resistance rates and genetic patterns from individuals on triple-drug therapy. Further, lessons from HIV may inform other systems.

Comparative Analysis of Within-Host Mutation Patterns and Diversity of Hepatitis C Virus Subtypes 1a, 1b, and 3a.

Understanding within-host evolution is critical for predicting viral evolutionary outcomes, yet such studies are currently lacking due to difficulty involving human subjects. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an RNA virus with high mutation rates. Its complex evolutionary dynamics and extensive genetic diversity are demonstrated in over 67 known subtypes. In this study, we analyzed within-host mutation frequency patterns of three HCV subtypes, using a large number of samples obtained from treatment-naïve participants by next-generation sequencing. We report that overall mutation frequency patterns are similar among subtypes, yet subtype 3a consistently had lower mutation frequencies and nucleotide diversity, while subtype 1a had the highest. We found that about 50% of genomic sites are highly conserved across subtypes, which are likely under strong purifying selection. We also compared within-host and between-host selective pressures, which revealed that Hyper Variable Region 1 within hosts was under positive selection, but was under slightly negative selection between hosts, which indicates that many mutations created within hosts are removed during the transmission bottleneck. Examining the natural prevalence of known resistance-associated variants showed their consistent existence in the treatment-naïve participants. These results provide insights into the differences and similarities among HCV subtypes that may be used to develop and improve HCV therapies.

The clarifying role of time series data in the population genetics of HIV.

HIV can evolve remarkably quickly in response to antiretroviral therapies and the immune system. This evolution stymies treatment effectiveness and prevents the development of an HIV vaccine. Consequently, there has been a great interest in using population genetics to disentangle the forces that govern the HIV adaptive landscape (selection, drift, mutation, and recombination). Traditional population genetics approaches look at the current state of genetic variation and infer the processes that can generate it. However, because HIV evolves rapidly, we can also sample populations repeatedly over time and watch evolution in action. In this paper, we demonstrate how time series data can bound evolutionary parameters in a way that complements and informs traditional population genetic approaches. Specifically, we focus on our recent paper (Feder et al., 2016, eLife), in which we show that, as improved HIV drugs have led to fewer patients failing therapy due to resistance evolution, less genetic diversity has been maintained following the fixation of drug resistance mutations. Because soft sweeps of multiple drug resistance mutations spreading simultaneously have been previously documented in response to the less effective HIV therapies used early in the epidemic, we interpret the maintenance of post-sweep diversity in response to poor therapies as further evidence of soft sweeps and therefore a high population mutation rate (θ) in these intra-patient HIV populations. Because improved drugs resulted in rarer resistance evolution accompanied by lower post-sweep diversity, we suggest that both observations can be explained by decreased population mutation rates and a resultant transition to hard selective sweeps. A recent paper (Harris et al., 2018, PLOS Genetics) proposed an alternative interpretation: Diversity maintenance following drug resistance evolution in response to poor therapies may have been driven by recombination during slow, hard selective sweeps of single mutations. Then, if better drugs have led to faster hard selective sweeps of resistance, recombination will have less time to rescue diversity during the sweep, recapitulating the decrease in post-sweep diversity as drugs have improved. In this paper, we use time series data to show that drug resistance evolution during ineffective treatment is very fast, providing new evidence that soft sweeps drove early HIV treatment failure.

SIV Evolutionary Dynamics in Cynomolgus Macaques during SIV-Mycobacterium tuberculosis Co-Infection.

Co-infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a worldwide public health concern, leading to worse clinical outcomes caused by both pathogens. We used a non-human primate model of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-Mtb co-infection, in which latent Mtb infection was established prior to SIVmac251 infection. The evolutionary dynamics of SIV env was evaluated from samples in plasma, lymph nodes, and lungs (including granulomas) of SIV-Mtb co-infected and SIV only control animals. While the diversity of the challenge virus was low and overall viral diversity remained relatively low over 6-9 weeks, changes in viral diversity and divergence were observed, including evidence for tissue compartmentalization. Overall, viral diversity was highest in SIV-Mtb animals that did not develop clinical Mtb reactivation compared to animals with Mtb reactivation. Among lung granulomas, viral diversity was positively correlated with the frequency of CD4+ T cells and negatively correlated with the frequency of CD8+ T cells. SIV diversity was highest in the thoracic lymph nodes compared to other sites, suggesting that lymphatic drainage from the lungs in co-infected animals provides an advantageous environment for SIV replication. This is the first assessment of SIV diversity across tissue compartments during SIV-Mtb co-infection after established Mtb latency.

Genetic Adaptation in New York City Rats.

Brown rats (Rattus norvegicus) thrive in urban environments by navigating the anthropocentric environment and taking advantage of human resources and by-products. From the human perspective, rats are a chronic problem that causes billions of dollars in damage to agriculture, health, and infrastructure. Did genetic adaptation play a role in the spread of rats in cities? To approach this question, we collected whole-genome sequences from 29 brown rats from New York City (NYC) and scanned for genetic signatures of adaptation. We tested for 1) high-frequency, extended haplotypes that could indicate selective sweeps and 2) loci of extreme genetic differentiation between the NYC sample and a sample from the presumed ancestral range of brown rats in northeast China. We found candidate selective sweeps near or inside genes associated with metabolism, diet, the nervous system, and locomotory behavior. Patterns of differentiation between NYC and Chinese rats at putative sweep loci suggest that many sweeps began after the split from the ancestral population. Together, our results suggest several hypotheses on adaptation in rats living in proximity to humans.

Drivers of within-host genetic diversity in acute infections of viruses.

Genetic diversity is the fuel of evolution and facilitates adaptation to novel environments. However, our understanding of what drives differences in the genetic diversity during the early stages of viral infection is somewhat limited. Here, we use ultra-deep sequencing to interrogate 43 clinical samples taken from early infections of the human-infecting viruses HIV, RSV and CMV. Hundreds to thousands of virus templates were sequenced per sample, allowing us to reveal dramatic differences in within-host genetic diversity among virus populations. We found that increased diversity was mostly driven by presence of multiple divergent genotypes in HIV and CMV samples, which we suggest reflect multiple transmitted/founder viruses. Conversely, we detected an abundance of low frequency hyper-edited genomes in RSV samples, presumably reflecting defective virus genomes (DVGs). We suggest that RSV is characterized by higher levels of cellular co-infection, which allow for complementation and hence elevated levels of DVGs.

Ten simple rules for an inclusive summer coding program for non-computer-science undergraduates.

Since 2015, we have run a free 9-week summer program that provides non-computer science (CS) undergraduates at San Francisco State University (SFSU) with experience in coding and doing research. Undergraduate research experiences remain very limited at SFSU and elsewhere, so the summer program provides opportunities for many more students beyond the mentoring capacity of our university laboratories. In addition, we were concerned that many students from historically underrepresented (HU) groups may be unable to take advantage of traditional summer research programs because these programs require students to relocate or be available full time, which is not feasible for students who have family, work, or housing commitments. Our program, which is local and part-time, serves about 5 times as many students as a typical National Science Foundation (NSF) Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) program, on a smaller budget. Based on our experiences, we present 10 simple rules for busy faculty who want to create similar programs to engage non-CS HU undergraduates in computational research. Note that while some of the strategies we implement are based on evidence-based publications in the social sciences or education research literature, the original suggestions we make here are based on our trial-and-error experiences, rather than formal hypothesis testing.

Viral CpG Deficiency Provides No Evidence That Dogs Were Intermediate Hosts for SARS-CoV-2.

Due to the scope and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic there exists a strong desire to understand where the SARS-CoV-2 virus came from and how it jumped species boundaries to humans. Molecular evolutionary analyses can trace viral origins by establishing relatedness and divergence times of viruses and identifying past selective pressures. However, we must uphold rigorous standards of inference and interpretation on this topic because of the ramifications of being wrong. Here, we dispute the conclusions of Xia (2020. Extreme genomic CpG deficiency in SARS-CoV-2 and evasion of host antiviral defense. Mol Biol Evol. doi:10.1093/molbev/masa095) that dogs are a likely intermediate host of a SARS-CoV-2 ancestor. We highlight major flaws in Xia's inference process and his analysis of CpG deficiencies, and conclude that there is no direct evidence for the role of dogs as intermediate hosts. Bats and pangolins currently have the greatest support as ancestral hosts of SARS-CoV-2, with the strong caveat that sampling of wildlife species for coronaviruses has been limited.

Drug Resistance Evolution in HIV in the Late 1990s: Hard Sweeps, Soft Sweeps, Clonal Interference and the Accumulation of Drug Resistance Mutations.

The evolution of drug resistance in pathogens such as HIV is an important and widely known example in the field of evolutionary medicine. Here, we focus on a unique data set from the late 1990s with multiple viral sequences from multiple time points in 118 patients. We study patterns of evolutionary dynamics in the viral populations in these patients who were treated with Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors and Protease Inhibitors in the late 1990s. Specifically, we aim to visualize and analyze examples of population genetic processes such as selective sweeps and clonal interference. The figures and descriptions in this paper can be used in evolution and population genetics classes. We show and analyze a wide variety of patterns, specifically: soft sweeps, hard sweeps, softening sweeps and hardening sweeps, simultaneous sweeps, accumulation of mutations and clonal interference.

Long-Acting Rilpivirine (RPV) Preexposure Prophylaxis Does Not Inhibit Vaginal Transmission of RPV-Resistant HIV-1 or Select for High-Frequency Drug Resistance in Humanized Mice.

As a long-acting formulation of the nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor rilpivirine (RPV LA) has been proposed for use as preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and the prevalence of transmitted RPV-resistant viruses can be relatively high, we evaluated the efficacy of RPV LA to inhibit vaginal transmission of RPV-resistant HIV-1 in humanized mice. Vaginal challenges of wild-type (WT), Y181C, and Y181V HIV-1 were performed in mice left untreated or after RPV PrEP. Plasma viremia was measured for 7 to 10 weeks, and single-genome sequencing was performed on plasma HIV-1 RNA in mice infected during PrEP. RPV LA significantly prevented vaginal transmission of WT HIV-1 and Y181C HIV-1, which is 3-fold resistant to RPV. However, it did not prevent transmission of Y181V HIV-1, which has 30-fold RPV resistance in the viruses used for this study. RPV LA did delay WT HIV-1 dissemination in infected animals until genital and plasma RPV concentrations waned. Animals that became infected despite RPV LA PrEP did not acquire new RPV-resistant mutations above frequencies in untreated mice or untreated people living with HIV-1, and the mutations detected conferred low-level resistance. These data suggest that high, sustained concentrations of RPV were required to inhibit vaginal transmission of HIV-1 with little or no resistance to RPV but could not inhibit virus with high resistance. HIV-1 did not develop high-level or high-frequency RPV resistance in the majority of mice infected after RPV LA treatment. However, the impact of low-frequency RPV resistance on virologic outcome during subsequent antiretroviral therapy still is unclear.IMPORTANCE The antiretroviral drug rilpivirine was developed into a long-acting formulation (RPV LA) to improve adherence for preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent HIV-1 transmission. A concern is that RPV LA will not inhibit transmission of drug-resistant HIV-1 and may select for drug-resistant virus. In female humanized mice, we found that RPV LA inhibited vaginal transmission of WT or 3-fold RPV-resistant HIV-1 but not virus with 30-fold RPV resistance. In animals that became infected despite RPV LA PrEP, WT HIV-1 dissemination was delayed until genital and plasma RPV concentrations waned. RPV resistance was detected at similar low frequencies in untreated and PrEP-treated mice that became infected. These results indicate the importance of maintaining RPV at a sustained threshold after virus exposure to prevent dissemination of HIV-1 after vaginal infection and low-frequency resistance mutations conferred low-level resistance, suggesting that RPV resistance is difficult to develop after HIV-1 infection during RPV LA PrEP.

Evolutionary Dynamics in Structured Populations Under Strong Population Genetic Forces.

In the long-term neutral equilibrium, high rates of migration between subpopulations result in little population differentiation. However, in the short-term, even very abundant migration may not be enough for subpopulations to equilibrate immediately. In this study, we investigate dynamical patterns of short-term population differentiation in adapting populations via stochastic and analytical modeling through time. We characterize a regime in which selection and migration interact to create non-monotonic patterns of population differentiation over time when migration is weaker than selection, but stronger than drift. We demonstrate how these patterns can be leveraged to estimate high migration rates using approximate Bayesian computation. We apply this approach to estimate fast migration in a rapidly adapting intra-host Simian-HIV population sampled from different anatomical locations. We find differences in estimated migration rates between different compartments, even though all are above [Formula: see text] = 1. This work demonstrates how studying demographic processes on the timescale of selective sweeps illuminates processes too fast to leave signatures on neutral timescales.

Inferring population genetics parameters of evolving viruses using time-series data.

With the advent of deep sequencing techniques, it is now possible to track the evolution of viruses with ever-increasing detail. Here, we present Flexible Inference from Time-Series (FITS)-a computational tool that allows inference of one of three parameters: the fitness of a specific mutation, the mutation rate or the population size from genomic time-series sequencing data. FITS was designed first and foremost for analysis of either short-term Evolve & Resequence (E&R) experiments or rapidly recombining populations of viruses. We thoroughly explore the performance of FITS on simulated data and highlight its ability to infer the fitness/mutation rate/population size. We further show that FITS can infer meaningful information even when the input parameters are inexact. In particular, FITS is able to successfully categorize a mutation as advantageous or deleterious. We next apply FITS to empirical data from an E&R experiment on poliovirus where parameters were determined experimentally and demonstrate high accuracy in inference.

Polygenic adaptation: From sweeps to subtle frequency shifts.

Evolutionary theory has produced two conflicting paradigms for the adaptation of a polygenic trait. While population genetics views adaptation as a sequence of selective sweeps at single loci underlying the trait, quantitative genetics posits a collective response, where phenotypic adaptation results from subtle allele frequency shifts at many loci. Yet, a synthesis of these views is largely missing and the population genetic factors that favor each scenario are not well understood. Here, we study the architecture of adaptation of a binary polygenic trait (such as resistance) with negative epistasis among the loci of its basis. The genetic structure of this trait allows for a full range of potential architectures of adaptation, ranging from sweeps to small frequency shifts. By combining computer simulations and a newly devised analytical framework based on Yule branching processes, we gain a detailed understanding of the adaptation dynamics for this trait. Our key analytical result is an expression for the joint distribution of mutant alleles at the end of the adaptive phase. This distribution characterizes the polygenic pattern of adaptation at the underlying genotype when phenotypic adaptation has been accomplished. We find that a single compound parameter, the population-scaled background mutation rate Θbg, explains the main differences among these patterns. For a focal locus, Θbg measures the mutation rate at all redundant loci in its genetic background that offer alternative ways for adaptation. For adaptation starting from mutation-selection-drift balance, we observe different patterns in three parameter regions. Adaptation proceeds by sweeps for small Θbg ≲ 0.1, while small polygenic allele frequency shifts require large Θbg ≳ 100. In the large intermediate regime, we observe a heterogeneous pattern of partial sweeps at several interacting loci.