Forecasting cyanobacteria dominance in Canadian temperate lakes.

Predictive models based on broad scale, spatial surveys typically identify nutrients and climate as the most important predictors of cyanobacteria abundance; however these models generally have low predictive power because at smaller geographic scales numerous other factors may be equally or more important. At the lake level, for example, the ability to forecast cyanobacteria dominance is of tremendous value to lake managers as they can use such models to communicate exposure risks associated with recreational and drinking water use, and possible exposure to algal toxins, in advance of bloom occurrence. We used detailed algal, limnological and meteorological data from two temperate lakes in south-central Ontario, Canada to determine the factors that are closely linked to cyanobacteria dominance, and to develop easy to use models to forecast cyanobacteria biovolume. For Brandy Lake (BL), the strongest and most parsimonious model for forecasting % cyanobacteria biovolume (% CB) included water column stability, hypolimnetic TP, and % cyanobacteria biovolume two weeks prior. For Three Mile Lake (TML), the best model for forecasting % CB included water column stability, hypolimnetic TP concentration, and 7-d mean wind speed. The models for forecasting % CB in BL and TML are fundamentally different in their lag periods (BL = lag 1 model and TML = lag 2 model) and in some predictor variables despite the close proximity of the study lakes. We speculate that three main factors (nutrient concentrations, water transparency and lake morphometry) may have contributed to differences in the models developed, and may account for variation observed in models derived from large spatial surveys. Our results illustrate that while forecast models can be developed to determine when cyanobacteria will dominate within two temperate lakes, the models require detailed, lake-specific calibration to be effective as risk-management tools.

UVR sensitivity of Chaoborus larvae.

In small temperate lakes, predation by fish generally regulates the species structure and abundance of larval Chaoborus. Yet, Chaoborus abundance may also vary appreciably among lakes with no fish. Many fishless lakes in Sudbury, Ontario, have transparent waters. This raises the possibility that low abundance of Chaoborus in such lakes may be attributable to UVR-induced mortality. To determine whether UVR affects Chaoborus survival, we performed 6 in situ experiments over 2 to 4 day periods at 4 depths in Ruth-Roy Lake (a clear fishless lake with few Chaoborus). Third and fourth instar C. punctipennis were randomly allocated to 3 treatments: quartz (UVR+ PAR), OP3 acrylite (PAR only) and dark controls. Survival under UVR+PAR was significantly reduced in comparison with the other treatments. Survival under PAR only was high, and did not differ from the dark controls. Time to death increased with incubation depth and larval stage. These results suggest that the small Chaoborus population in Ruth-Roy Lake, and perhaps in other fishless, clear lakes may be attributed to UVR-induced mortality.