Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains.

We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from nine institutes, perform a series of 5 day hindcasts, each initialized from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

Vegetations in infective endocarditis. Clinical relevance and diagnosis by cross sectional echocardiography.

Cross sectional echocardiography identified vegetations in 45 of 62 (73%) patients who had clinical evidence of active infective endocarditis. The sensitivity of this technique in diagnosing vegetations in infective endocarditis was 93% and the specificity 89%. The predictive value of a positive test was 96% and that of a negative test 80%. Vegetations were detected with a similar frequency on the aortic and mitral valves. The incidence of valvar incompetence, congestive heart failure, and the need for surgical intervention was similar in the patients with and without vegetations. Embolism occurred in 47% of those patients with vegetations and in 12% of those without. The mortality rate was 27% in those with vegetations, and no patient without vegetations died. Thus cross sectional echocardiography is accurate in diagnosing vegetations in patients with infective endocarditis, and this finding identifies patients at high risk of embolic complications and death.