Personalized activity index, a new safety monitoring tool for multiple sclerosis clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: An abnormal increase of contrast-enhancing lesion (CEL) counts on frequent MRIs is interpreted as a signal of potential worsening in multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trials. We demonstrate the utility of the MR personalized activity index (MR-pax) to identify such increases. METHODS: We analyzed a previous Phase II study in relapsing patients (n = 167) with MRIs at screening, baseline and months 1-6. We performed five consecutive reviews at 90-day intervals. At each review, we evaluate the MR-pax for each patient and also identify those who meet the rule-of-five (an ad-hoc guideline currently in use). To evaluate its clinical relevance, we assess the relation between having a small MR-pax (≤0.05; indicating an unexpected CEL increase) and relapse status in the 12 weeks post-review. RESULTS: Of the 399 patient reviews, 35 cases met the rule-of-five; 35 had an MR-pax ≤ 0.05; 18 met both criteria. The proportions experiencing clinical relapse are 63% among those meeting the rule-of-five, 61% among those with MR-pax ≤0.05, and 83% for those meeting both criteria, more than double the rate of those meeting neither criterion (40%). CONCLUSION: A guideline combining this new personalized index and the existing threshold-based criterion is able to better identify patients with a higher risk of experiencing relapses.

Further investigation of safety monitoring guidelines based on magnetic resonance imaging lesion activity in multiple sclerosis clinical trials.

We assess two modified guidelines for monitoring patient safety in multiple sclerosis (MS) trials. These guidelines flag patients with an increase in contrast enhancing lesion (CEL) count above a threshold over the CEL level 1-2 months earlier. We compare the new guidelines to the original guideline where the threshold is set according to the baseline by applying the guidelines to two previous studies. The odds ratios of a subsequent clinical relapse associated with meeting the CEL threshold based on the modified guidelines are similar to those based on the original guideline. There is a need for patient and cohort specific monitoring procedures.

A longitudinal model for magnetic resonance imaging lesion count data in multiple sclerosis patients.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data are routinely collected at multiple time points during phase 2 clinical trials in multiple sclerosis. However, these data are typically summarized into a single response for each patient before analysis. Models based on these summary statistics do not allow the exploration of the trade-off between numbers of patients and numbers of scans per patient or the development of optimal schedules for MRI scanning. To address these limitations, in this paper, we develop a longitudinal model to describe one MRI outcome: the number of lesions observed on an individual MRI scan. We motivate our choice of a mixed hidden Markov model based both on novel graphical diagnostic methods applied to five real data sets and on conceptual considerations. Using this model, we compare the performance of a number of different tests of treatment effect. These include standard parametric and nonparametric tests, as well as tests based on the new model. We conduct an extensive simulation study using data generated from the longitudinal model to investigate the parameters that affect test performance and to assess size and power. We determine that the parameters of the hidden Markov chain do not substantially affect the performance of the tests. Furthermore, we describe conditions under which likelihood ratio tests based on the longitudinal model appreciably outperform the standard tests based on summary statistics. These results establish that the new model is a valuable practical tool for designing and analyzing multiple sclerosis clinical trials.

Predictors of sexual desire disorders in women.

INTRODUCTION: A historic belief was that testosterone was the "hormone of desire." However, recent data, which show either minimal or no significant correlation between testosterone levels and women's sexual desire, suggest that nonhormonal variables may play a key role. AIM: To compare women with hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD) and those with the recently proposed more symptomatic desire disorder, Sexual Desire/Interest Disorder (SDID), on the relative contribution of hormonal vs. nonhormonal variables. METHODS: Women with HSDD (N = 58, mean age 52.5) or SDID (N = 52, mean age 50.9) participated in a biopsychosocial assessment in which six nonhormonal domains were evaluated for the degree of involvement in the current low desire complaints. Participants provided a serum sample of hormones analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry or liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry/mass spectrometry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Logistic regression was used to assess the ability of variables (nonhormonal: history of sexual abuse, developmental history, psychosexual history, psychiatric status, medical history, and sexual/relationship-related factors; hormonal: dehydroepiandrosterone [DHEA], 5-diol, 4-dione, testosterone, 5-α-dihydrotestosterone, androsterone glucuronide, 3α-diol-3G, 3α-diol-17G, and DHEA-S; and demographic: age, relationship length) to predict group membership. RESULTS: Women with SDID had significantly lower sexual desire and arousal scores, but the groups did not differ on relationship satisfaction or mood. Addition of the hormonal variables to the two demographic variables (age, relationship length) did not significantly increase predictive capability. However, the addition of the six nonhormonal variables to these two sets of predictors significantly increased ability to predict group status. Developmental history, psychiatric history, and psychosexual history added significantly to the predictive capability provided by the basic model when examined individually. CONCLUSIONS: Nonhormonal variables added significant predictive capability to the basic model, highlighting the importance of their assessment clinically where women commonly have SDID in addition to HSDD, and emphasizing the importance of addressing psychological factors in treatment.

Role of androgens in women's sexual dysfunction.

OBJECTIVE: Although suspected, androgen deficit in women with sexual dysfunction has never been established. Given that serum testosterone levels are of limited value, we sought to compare total androgen activity in women with and without hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD). Intracellular production in target tissues is the major source of testosterone in older women and can now be measured. Androgen metabolites, specifically androsterone glucuronide (ADT-G), reflect intracellular and ovarian sources of testosterone. Thus, we predicted significantly lowered levels of metabolites in women with sexual dysfunction. METHODS: A detailed assessment of the sexual function of women without depression, without serious relationship discord, or receiving medications affecting sexual function included 121 women with HSDD and 124 sexually healthy community controls. Sexual function was assessed using structured interviews, validated questionnaires, and steroid analysis-mass spectrometry levels of ADT-G, testosterone, and precursor hormones. RESULTS: No group differences in serum levels of testosterone or ADT-G were found. Significantly lower levels of two precursor hormones, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate and androstene-3ß,17ß-diol, were found in women with sexual dysfunction (P = 0.006 and P = 0.020, respectively). The variability of metabolite and precursor levels was substantial for all women. CONCLUSIONS: Significantly lower levels of the two precursor steroids dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate and androstene-3ß,17ß-diol but not the major androgen metabolite ADT-G were found in women with HSDD. Although the significance of the former awaits further study, androgen deficiency in women with HSDD was not confirmed. Given the unknown long-term effects of testosterone supplementation, women receiving testosterone therapy should be informed that a deficit of testosterone activity in women with HSDD has not been identified.

Regression of new gadolinium enhancing lesion activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Contrast enhancing lesions (CEL) is a common endpoint in multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trials. To minimize sample size or placebo exposure, a crossover design without a concurrent control group is attractive. Natural regression may confound this strategy. We assessed the degree of regression in monthly new gadolinium activity in relapsing-remitting (RR) placebo patients. METHODS: A post hoc analysis was performed on 65 RRMS placebo patients in the Prevention of Relapses and disability by Interferon beta-1a Subcutaneously in Multiple Sclerosis (PRISMS) trial. Patients were originally selected for relapses but not preselected for MRI activity. Eleven MRI scans were taken at screening, baseline, and months 1 through 9. Monthly new CEL rates were examined using a random effects Poisson model. Patients were analyzed as a single group and by screening CEL count level subgroups: no, low, and high (0, 1 to 3, >3 CEL). RESULTS: A total of 32, 19, and 14 patients had no, low, and high CEL counts at screening. The monthly new CEL rates (95% CI) of all patients at baseline, months 1 to 3, 4 to 6, and 7 to 9 were 2.0 (1.3, 2.9), 1.8 (1.3, 2.5), 1.4 (1.0, 2.0), and 1.2 (0.8, 1.7). Compared to baseline, the rate decreased by 10%, 27%, and 39%. The monthly rate of the no subgroup remained stable. The rates for both the low and high subgroups decreased by 4%, 29%, and 48% at months 1 to 3, 4 to 6, and 7 to 9 compared to baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Placebo relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients experience a decline of new gadolinium activity over 9 months. A crossover design without a concurrent comparison group may overestimate the treatment effect.

The impact of ongoing illicit drug use on methadone adherence in illicit drug users receiving treatment for HIV in a directly observed therapy program.

INTRODUCTION: Studies evaluating the effectiveness of opioid agonist therapy programs typically evaluate drug abstinence or treatment retention as their primary outcomes. However, in many circumstances (e.g. directly observed therapy (DOT) programs within methadone maintenance programs), methadone adherence is an extremely relevant clinical outcome. We sought to evaluate the impact of ongoing illicit drug use on methadone adherence within a DOT program for the treatment of HIV-infection. METHODS: Patients were enrolled in a DOT program, where methadone and HIV medication are co-administered by a community pharmacist. Drug use (amphetamines, benzodiazepines, cocaine, and opiates) was assessed by repeated urinalysis results. Methadone adherence was calculated as the fraction of days methadone was administered. RESULTS: Ongoing drug use, and poly-substance use was common, with only 4 of 60 patients abstaining from all illicit drug use. Overall methadone adherence was 84.5%. Amphetamine use (without benzodiazepine and cocaine use), benzodiazepine use (without amphetamines) and higher methadone doses were associated with higher methadone adherence. When patients used benzodiazepines or cocaine, any positive effect associated with amphetamine use was negated. In addition, opiate use was associated with decreased methadone adherence. DISCUSSION: The effect of many illicit drugs on methadone adherence may differ from reports using other treatment outcomes.

Application of hidden Markov models to multiple sclerosis lesion count data.

This paper is motivated by the work of Albert et al. who consider lesion count data observed on multiple sclerosis patients, and develop models for each patient's data individually. From a medical perspective, adequate models for such data are important both for describing the behaviour of lesions over time, and for designing efficient clinical trials. In this paper, we discuss some issues surrounding the hidden Markov model proposed by these authors. We describe an efficient estimation method and propose some extensions to the original model. Our examples illustrate the need for models which describe all patients' data simultaneously, while allowing for inter-patient heterogeneity.

Longitudinal analyses of the effects of neutralizing antibodies on interferon beta-1b in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

We have analysed data on exacerbation rates, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, and lesion burdens using the results of two neutralizing antibody (NAB) assays (CPE and MxA) from the pivotal relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) trial of interferon beta-1b (IFNB) with a longitudinal approach, where the influence of NABs in individual patients is assessed by comparing responses during NAB-positive and NAB-negative periods. There are apparent influences on exacerbation rate related to dose of IFNB, titer level, and duration of positivity. With the MxA assay, exacerbation rates after switching to NAB-positive status are estimated to be 28% higher [95% confidence interval (CI): (-15%, 92%)] and -2% higher [95% CI: (-21%, 21%)] on the low- and high-dose IFNB arms, respectively. When compared with all NAB-negative periods, exacerbation rates during NAB-positive periods are estimated to be 29% higher [95% CI: (0%, 67%)] and 18% higher [95% CI: (0%, 40%)] on the low- and high-dose IFNB arms, respectively. When NAB-positive patients again become NAB-negative, no evidence of increased exacerbation rates could then be demonstrated. More detailed exploratory analyses indicate that the effects are most evident in the approximately 20% of patients developing high titers. In these patients, the influence of NABs may be self-limited, as titers often diminish or NABs become undetectable with time.

Statistical approaches to assessing the effects of neutralizing antibodies: IFNbeta-1b in the pivotal trial of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Carefully conducted large-scale clinical trials have provided strong evidence that type I interferons favorably influence clinical and MRI outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis. Some patients develop neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) to these treatments, reflecting an immune system response. The clinical significance of these NAbs has been uncertain because titers vary widely, and even highly elevated NAb titers decrease to undetectable levels in some patients. Whether NAbs decrease the efficacy of these treatments is a critically important scientific question. We argue that a longitudinal data analysis is the most appropriate approach to address this question.