Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century.

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020-2059 relative to 1910-2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060-2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century.

Grassland to shrubland state transitions enhance carbon sequestration in the northern Chihuahuan Desert.

The replacement of native C4 -dominated grassland by C3 -dominated shrubland is considered an ecological state transition where different ecological communities can exist under similar environmental conditions. These state transitions are occurring globally, and may be exacerbated by climate change. One consequence of the global increase in woody vegetation may be enhanced ecosystem carbon sequestration, although the responses of arid and semiarid ecosystems may be highly variable. During a drier than average period from 2007 to 2011 in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, we found established shrubland to sequester 49 g C m(-2) yr(-1) on average, while nearby native C4 grassland was a net source of 31 g C m(-2) yr(-1) over this same period. Differences in C exchange between these ecosystems were pronounced--grassland had similar productivity compared to shrubland but experienced higher C efflux via ecosystem respiration, while shrubland was a consistent C sink because of a longer growing season and lower ecosystem respiration. At daily timescales, rates of carbon exchange were more sensitive to soil moisture variation in grassland than shrubland, such that grassland had a net uptake of C when wet but lost C when dry. Thus, even under unfavorable, drier than average climate conditions, the state transition from grassland to shrubland resulted in a substantial increase in terrestrial C sequestration. These results illustrate the inherent tradeoffs in quantifying ecosystem services that result from ecological state transitions, such as shrub encroachment. In this case, the deleterious changes to ecosystem services often linked to grassland to shrubland state transitions may at least be partially offset by increased ecosystem carbon sequestration.

Quantitative assessment of motor fatigue and strength in MS.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the test-retest reliability of strength and fatigue measurements in patients with MS and in healthy control subjects, and to examine associations among motor fatigue, strength, and ambulatory impairment in MS patients. BACKGROUND: Motor fatigue, defined as the loss of the maximal capacity to generate force during exercise, and weakness are common in patients with MS. METHOD: Twenty ambulatory MS patients and 20 age- and sex-matched healthy control subjects participated in the study. Test-retest reliability was assessed in two identical testing sessions, separated by 3 to 5 days. Maximal voluntary isometric strength was determined by fixed myometry of seven muscle groups on each side. Motor fatigue was assessed using three exercise protocols: sustained maximal contractions (static fatigue), repetitive maximal contractions, and walking as far as 500 m. Four analysis models for static fatigue were examined for their test-retest reliability and their ability to discriminate between normal fatigue and pathologic fatigue from MS. RESULTS: Test-retest reliability in MS patients was excellent for isometric strength and very good for static fatigue. Test-retest reliability was lower for exercise protocols that involved repetitive contractions or ambulation. Compared with healthy control subjects, MS patients were weak in lower extremity muscles, but upper extremity strength was relatively preserved. Fatigue was greater in MS patients, even in muscles that were not clearly weak. There were no significant associations between strength and fatigue in any of the muscles tested. A fatigue analysis model based on the area under the force-versus-time curve gave the best combination of reliability and sensitivity to detect differences between MS patients and healthy control subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Strength and motor fatigue can be measured reliably in patients with MS. MS patients experience more fatigue than healthy control subjects during sustained contractions, repetitive contractions, and ambulation. Motor fatigue appears to be distinct from weakness because the degree of fatigue was not associated with the degree of weakness in individual muscles. Quantitative assessment of strength and fatigue may be useful to monitor changes in motor function over time in MS patients.

The measurement of ambulatory impairment in multiple sclerosis.

The objective of this study was to examine the relationships between continuous measures of ambulatory impairment in MS patients and their ordinal counterparts. Much of the disability caused by MS is due to ambulatory impairment. The Expanded Disability Severity Scale (EDSS) and the Ambulation Index (AI) are ordinal measures of MS severity based largely on the maximal distance subjects can walk (Dmax) and the time to walk 8 m (T8), respectively. At EDSS levels 6.0 to 7.0 and AI levels 3 to 6, scores are defined more by the use of ambulatory aids, rather than by Dmax or T8. We determined Dmax (up to 500 m), T8, the EDSS score, and the AI in 237 ambulatory MS patients. The maximal distance subjects could walk and T8 were strongly related to their ordinal counterparts (Spearman r = 0.65 and 0.91, respectively), but the continuous measures showed considerable variability within EDSS and AI levels that the ordinal scales did not reflect. Most of the variability occurred at EDSS levels 6.0 to 7.0 and AI levels 3 to 6. Because the use of an aid did not clearly predict Dmax or T8, many patients in these ranges had better ambulatory function based on the continuous measures than those with less disability according to the ordinal scales. We found that Dmax and T8 provide more precise information about ambulatory impairment in MS than do the EDSS and AI, allowing better discrimination of differences between patients and potentially greater sensitivity to detect therapeutic effects in clinical trials.

Quantitative assessment of sustained-release 4-aminopyridine for symptomatic treatment of multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of 4-aminopyridine sustained release (4AP SR) (fampridine, EL-970) using quantitative measures of motor function in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. BACKGROUND: In vitro, 4AP improves conduction through demyelinated axons. A previous multicenter trial of 4AP SR using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) as the primary outcome was unable to establish clinical efficacy. DESIGN/METHODS: Ten MS patients with stable motor deficits (EDSS 6.0-7.5) were given 4AP SR 17.5 mg bid and placebo for 1 week each in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial. Time to walk 8 meters, time to climb four stairs, maximum voluntary isometric contraction measured quantitatively (MVICT), manual muscle testing (MMT), grip strength, EDSS, and the patient's global impression were measured. RESULTS: Timed gait was improved on 4AP SR compared with placebo in 9 of 10 subjects (p = 0.02). Timed stair climbing, MVICT, MMT, grip strength, and EDSS showed nonsignificant improvements on 4AP SR. Based on their global impressions, seven subjects preferred 4AP SR over placebo; only one preferred placebo. There were no serious side effects. CONCLUSION: 4AP SR improved motor function in MS patients. The quantitative outcomes used in this study permit more sensitive evaluation of the therapeutic effect and promise to be useful in future trials of symptomatic treatments for MS.