RESUMO
The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has directly impacted the public health and economy worldwide. To overcome this problem, countries have adopted different policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling the spread of the virus. This paper proposes the COVID-ABS, a new SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) agent-based model that aims to simulate the pandemic dynamics using a society of agents emulating people, business and government. Seven different scenarios of social distancing interventions were analyzed, with varying epidemiological and economic effects: (1) do nothing, (2) lockdown, (3) conditional lockdown, (4) vertical isolation, (5) partial isolation, (6) use of face masks, and (7) use of face masks together with 50% of adhesion to social isolation. In the impossibility of implementing scenarios with lockdown, which present the lowest number of deaths and highest impact on the economy, scenarios combining the use of face masks and partial isolation can be the more realistic for implementation in terms of social cooperation. The COVID-ABS model was implemented in Python programming language, with source code publicly available. The model can be easily extended to other societies by changing the input parameters, as well as allowing the creation of a multitude of other scenarios. Therefore, it is a useful tool to assist politicians and health authorities to plan their actions against the COVID-19 epidemic.
RESUMO
We present a combined geomorphological and biochronological study aimed at providing age constraints to the deposits forming a wide paleo-surface in the coastal area of the Tyrrhenian Sea, south of Anzio promontory (central Italy). We review the faunal assemblage recovered in Campoverde, evidencing the occurrence of the modern fallow deer subspecies Dama dama dama, which in peninsular Italy is not present before MIS 5e, providing a post-quem terminus of 125 ka for the deposit hosting the fossil remains. The geomorphological reconstruction shows that Campoverde is located within the highest of three paleosurfaces progressively declining towards the present coast, at average elevations of 36, 26 and 15 m a.s.l. The two lowest paleosurfaces match the elevation of the previously recognized marine terraces in this area; we define a new, upper marine terrace corresponding to the 36 m paleosurface, which we name Campoverde complex. Based on the provided evidence of an age as young as MIS 5e for this terrace, we discuss the possibility that previous identification of a tectonically stable MIS 5e coastline ranging 10-8 m a.s.l. in this area should be revised, with significant implications on assessment of the amplitude of sea-level oscillations during the Last Interglacial in the Mediterranean Sea.
