RESUMO
In the article, the authors identified the most attractive areas for investment in the Far Eastern Federal District based on statistical data on the agriculture and processing industry. The authors presented a set of secondary data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Investment Projects Digital Platform, which reflect the cost of implementing projects in the Far Eastern Federal District. These data were presented to characterize the region as deeply diversified, with a predominance of the livestock and fishing sectors. The authors identified the most promising investment projects in various regions of the Far Eastern Federal District and assessed their attractiveness in terms of accessibility to transportation. The result was a map of the implementation of the main areas of investment activity, taking into account transport connectivity. In addition, recommendations have been drawn for the development of agriculture in the Far Eastern Federal District. These recommendations deserve the attention not only of government specialists but also of all stakeholders involved in agricultural production.
RESUMO
This article reveals the main indicators of scientific and technological development (gross yield, yield, acreage and average annual prices for crop products) of the crop industry in the long term. Using these indicators, two development scenarios "Technological adaptation" and "Technological breakthrough" of the crop production sector until 2030 were identified. Scenarios for the development of the crop production industry in Russia until 2030 were constructed by means of a correlation and regression analysis. The objectivity of using the obtained regression equations is confirmed by the strong relationship between factors and gross yield. These factors are the basis for determining the gross yield of each crop in 2030. The article also presents the forecast of export volumes of agricultural crops in Russia. Predicted indicators of the Russian crop industry indicate an increase in the volume of seed and organic products.
RESUMO
A feature of modern crop production is the acute need to accelerate its scientific and technological development, on the basis of innovative processes. The sector of crop production has an essential dependence on external factors and the modern directions in its scientific and technological development should also reduce dependence on external factors and to improve controllability by reducing the uncertainty of responses to external influences. The methodology of scenario forecasting, adapted to the crop production gives the opportunity to answer the questions such as, for example as: How the determinants of the development of the crop sector will change? What future bifurcation points may occur? What strategic decisions can be made? What consequences these decisions will bring in future? Among the stages of long-term forecasting, the special part is assigned to development of scenarios of development. Scenario prediction allows, based on the available data, to suppose the development and behavior of the object under study in the future. As a result, it becomes possible to develop strategic and tactical solutions based on the implementation of the proposed scenarios. The peculiarity of this method is that it is applicable in situations of uncertainty of the object's reactions to various external influences. The development of scenarios allows to surmount the stochastic nature of the processes occurring in the scientific and technological sphere, to expose large-scale scientific and technological breakthroughs that can significantly change the crop sector. Scenario approach as much as possible forces out uncertainty of choice space between scenarios.
