Prospective Analysis of Behavioral Economic Predictors of Stable Moderation Drinking Among Problem Drinkers Attempting Natural Recovery.

BACKGROUND: As interventions have expanded beyond clinical treatment to include brief interventions for persons with less severe alcohol problems, predicting who can achieve stable moderation drinking has gained importance. Recent behavioral economic (BE) research on natural recovery has shown that active problem drinkers who allocate their monetary expenditures on alcohol and saving for the future over longer time horizons tend to have better subsequent recovery outcomes, including maintenance of stable moderation drinking. This study compared the predictive utility of this money-based "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" (ASDE) index with multiple BE analogue measures of behavioral impulsivity and self-control, which have seldom been investigated together, to predict outcomes of natural recovery attempts. METHODS: Community-dwelling problem drinkers, enrolled shortly after stopping abusive drinking without treatment, were followed prospectively for up to a year (N = 175 [75.4% male], M age = 50.65 years). They completed baseline assessments of preresolution drinking practices and problems, analogue behavioral choice tasks (Delay Discounting, Melioration-Maximization, and Alcohol Purchase Tasks), and a Timeline Followback interview including expenditures on alcohol compared to voluntary savings (ASDE index) during the preresolution year. RESULTS: Multinomial logistic regression models showed that, among the BE measures, only the ASDE index predicted stable moderation drinking compared to stable abstinence or unstable resolutions involving relapse. As hypothesized, stable moderation was associated with more balanced preresolution allocations to drinking and savings (odds ratio = 1.77, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 3.08, p < 0.05), suggesting it is associated with longer-term behavior regulation processes than abstinence. CONCLUSIONS: The ASDE's unique predictive utility may rest on its comprehensive representation of contextual elements to support this patterning of behavioral allocation. Stable low-risk drinking, but not abstinence, requires such regulatory processes.

Behavioral economic indicators of drinking problem severity and initial outcomes among problem drinkers attempting natural recovery: a cross-sectional naturalistic study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Research using different behavioral economic (BE) and time perspective (TP) measures suggests that substance misusers show greater sensitivity to shorter-term contingencies than normal controls, but multiple measures have seldom been investigated together. This study evaluated the extent to which multiple BE and TP measures were associated with drinking problem severity, distinguished initial outcomes of natural recovery attempts and shared common variance. Hypotheses were (1) that greater problem severity would be associated with greater impulsivity and demand for alcohol and shorter TPs; and (2) that low-risk drinking would be associated with greater sensitivity to longer-term contingencies compared with abstinence. DESIGN: Cross-sectional naturalistic field study. SETTING: Southern United States. PARTICIPANTS: Problem drinkers, recently resolved without treatment [n = 191 (76.44% male), mean age = 50.09 years] recruited using media advertisements. MEASUREMENTS: Drinking practices, dependence levels and alcohol-related problems prior to stopping problem drinking were assessed during structured field interviews. Measures included the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory; BE analogue choice tasks [delay discounting (DD), melioration-maximization (MM), alcohol purchase task (APT)]; and the Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure (ASDE) index, derived from real spending on alcohol and voluntary savings during the year before problem cessation. FINDINGS: Measures of demand based on real (ASDE) and hypothetical (APT) spending on alcohol were associated with problem severity (Ps < 0.05), but DD, MM and TP measures were not. More balanced pre-resolution spending on alcohol versus saving for the future distinguished low-risk drinking from abstinent resolutions (ASDE odds ratio =5.59; P < 0.001). BE measures did not share common variance. CONCLUSIONS: Two behavioral assessment tools that measure spending on alcohol, the Alcohol Purchase Task and the Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure index, appear to be reliable in assessing the severity of drinking problems. The ASDE index also may aid choices between low-risk and abstinent drinking goals.