A global dataset of publicly available dengue case count data.

OpenDengue is a global database of dengue case data collated from public sources and standardised and formatted to facilitate easy reanalysis. Dataset version 1.2 of this database contains information on over 56 million dengue cases from 102 countries between 1924 and 2023, making it the largest and most comprehensive dengue case database currently available. Over 95% of records are at the weekly or monthly temporal resolution and subnational data is available for 40 countries. To build OpenDengue we systematically searched databases, ministry of health websites, peer reviewed literature and Pro-MED mail reports and extracted denominator-based case count data. We undertake standardisation and error checking protocols to ensure consistency and resolve discrepancies. We meticulously documented the extraction process to ensure records are attributable and reproducible. The OpenDengue database remains under development with plans for further disaggregation and user contributions are encouraged. This new dataset can be used to better understand the long-term drivers of dengue transmission, improve estimates of disease burden, targeting and evaluation of interventions and improving future projections.

Global Burden of Animal Diseases: a novel approach to understanding and managing disease in livestock and aquaculture.

Investments in animal health and Veterinary Services can have a measurable impact on the health of people and the environment. These investments require a baseline metric that describes the burden of animal health and welfare in order to justify and prioritise resource allocation and from which to measure the impact of interventions. This paper is part of a process of scientific enquiry in which problems are identified and solutions sought in an inclusive way. It poses the broad question: what should a system to measure the animal disease burden on society look like and what value would it add? Moreover, it aims to do this in such a way as to be accessible by a wide audience, who are encouraged to engage in this debate. Given that farmed animals, including those raised by poor smallholders, are an economic entity, this system should be based on economic principles. These poor farmers are negatively impacted by disparities in animal health technology, which can be addressed through a mixture of supply-led and demand-driven interventions, reinforcing the relevance of targeted financial support from government and non-governmental organisations. The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) Programme will glean existing data to measure animal health losses within carefully characterised production systems. Consistent and transparent attribution of animal health losses will enable meaningful comparisons of the animal disease burden to be made between diseases, production systems and countries, and will show how it is apportioned by people's socio-economic status and gender. The GBADs Programme will produce a cloud-based knowledge engine and data portal, through which users will access burden metrics and associated visualisations, support for decisionmaking in the form of future animal health scenarios, and the outputs of wider economic modelling. The vision of GBADs, strengthening the food system for the benefit of society and the environment, is an example of One Health thinking in action.

Les investissements réalisés en santé animale et dans les Services vétérinaires ont un impact mesurable sur la santé des personnes et de l'environnement. Le système de mesure appliqué à ces investissements doit reposer sur un référentiel de base décrivant l'impact de la santé et du bien-être animal de manière à justifier et classer par priorités les ressources allouées et à mesurer les effets des interventions. Les auteurs présentent une étude conduite dans le cadre d'une enquête scientifique destinée à identifier les problèmes et à rechercher des solutions de manière inclusive. L'étude pose la question de savoir à quoi devrait ressembler un système conçu pour mesurer l'impact sur la société des maladies animales, et quelle serait sa valeur ajoutée. En outre, l'étude est conduite de manière à être accessible à une large audience afin d'encourager cette dernière à participer aux discussions. Étant donné que les animaux d'élevage constituent une entité économique, y compris les animaux appartenant à des éleveurs pauvres, le système de mesure doit reposer sur des principes économiques. Les exploitants pratiquant une agriculture de subsistance subissent les effets négatifs des disparités entre les différentes technologies applicables à la santé animale, disparités auxquelles il est possible de remédier par le biais d'interventions associant des mesures dictées par l'offre et par la demande et en renforçant l'efficacité du soutien financier ciblé apporté par les organisations gouvernementales et non gouvernementales. Le Programme « L'impact mondial des maladies animales ¼ (GBADs) aura pour tâche de glaner les données existantes afin de mesurer les pertes associées à la santé animale au sein de systèmes de production qui auront été soigneusement caractérisés au préalable. Grâce à l'élucidation cohérente et transparente des pertes imputables à chaque problème de santé animale, des comparaisons pertinentes pourront être effectuées concernant l'impact des maladies animales par maladies, par systèmes de production et par pays, et la répartition de cet impact dans les populations concernées suivant le statut socio-économique et le genre des intéressés sera mieux comprise. Le Programme GBADs entend créer un moteur de recherche et un portail de données qui seront disponibles sur le Cloud et donneront aux utilisateurs l'accès à des outils de mesure de l'impact des maladies et à d'autres informations présentées sous forme graphique, ainsi qu'à des outils d'aide à la décision sous forme de scénarios prospectifs sur la santé animale et aux résultats d'études plus larges de modélisation économique. La vision du GBADs, renforcer le système de production de denrées alimentaires au profit de la société et de l'environnement, est un exemple de mise en oeuvre du concept Une seule santé.

Las inversiones en sanidad animal y en los Servicios Veterinarios pueden tener un efecto mensurable en la salud de las personas y el medio ambiente. Para efectuar estas inversiones se precisan parámetros que describan y cuantifiquen la situación de partida y el impacto de los problemas de sanidad y bienestar animales, a fin de poder, a partir de ahí, justificar y jerarquizar la asignación de recursos y medir los efectos de las intervenciones. Este artículo, inscrito en un proceso de indagación científica encaminado a detectar problemas y buscar soluciones de forma incluyente, plantea la cuestión general de cómo debería ser y qué valor añadido aportaría un sistema destinado a medir el impacto que imponen a la sociedad las enfermedades animales. Los autores, además, tratan de exponer la cuestión de manera que sea accesible a un público amplio, al que se alienta a participar en este debate. Dado que los animales de granja (incluidos los de pequeñas explotaciones) constituyen una entidad económica, tal sistema debería estar basado en principios económicos. Los productores que trabajan en régimen de subsistencia se ven negativamente afectados por las disparidades existentes en materia de tecnología zoosanitaria, disparidad que cabe corregir con una combinación de intervenciones marcadas por la oferta y otras marcadas por la demanda, dirigiendo así más selectivamente el apoyo económico de entidades gubernamentales y organizaciones no gubernamentales. El programa GBADs (El impacto global de las enfermedades animales) servirá para compilar datos ya existentes con el fin de medir las pérdidas zoosanitarias dentro de sistemas productivos cuidadosamente caracterizados. La atribución coherente y transparente de estas pérdidas zoosanitarias permitirá efectuar comparaciones significativas del impacto que representan las enfermedades animales en el caso de diferentes dolencias, sistemas productivos o países y pondrá de relieve cómo se distribuye este impacto en función del género y la condición socioeconómica de las personas. Por medio del programa GBADs se creará un motor de conocimiento y portal de datos ubicado en la nube que permita al usuario acceder a mediciones del impacto de enfermedades y representaciones gráficas conexas, a herramientas de apoyo a la adopción de decisiones, en forma de hipotéticas situaciones zoosanitarias futuras, y a los resultados de modelizaciones económicas más generales. La aspiración del programa GBADs ­ reforzar el sistema alimentario en beneficio de la sociedad y el medio ambiente ­ constituye un ejemplo de aplicación en la práctica del pensamiento en clave de Una sola salud.

Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings.

Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014-16 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD's incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.

Travel time to health facilities in areas of outbreak potential: maps for guiding local preparedness and response.

BACKGROUND: Repeated outbreaks of emerging pathogens underscore the need for preparedness plans to prevent, detect, and respond. As countries develop and improve National Action Plans for Health Security, addressing subnational variation in preparedness is increasingly important. One facet of preparedness and mitigating disease transmission is health facility accessibility, linking infected persons with health systems and vice versa. Where potential patients can access care, local facilities must ensure they can appropriately diagnose, treat, and contain disease spread to prevent secondary transmission; where patients cannot readily access facilities, alternate plans must be developed. Here, we use travel time to link facilities and populations at risk of viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) and identify spatial variation in these respective preparedness demands. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used geospatial resources of travel friction, pathogen environmental suitability, and health facilities to determine facility accessibility of any at-risk location within a country. We considered in-country and cross-border movements of exposed populations and highlighted vulnerable populations where current facilities are inaccessible and new infrastructure would reduce travel times. We developed profiles for 43 African countries. Resulting maps demonstrate gaps in health facility accessibility and highlight facilities closest to areas at risk for VHF spillover. For instance, in the Central African Republic, we identified travel times of over 24 h to access a health facility. Some countries had more uniformly short travel times, such as Nigeria, although regional disparities exist. For some populations, including many in Botswana, access to areas at risk for VHF nationally was low but proximity to suitable spillover areas in bordering countries was high. Additional analyses provide insights for considering future resource allocation. We provide a contemporary use case for these analyses for the ongoing Ebola outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: These maps demonstrate the use of geospatial analytics for subnational preparedness, identifying facilities close to at-risk populations for prioritizing readiness to detect, treat, and respond to cases and highlighting where gaps in health facility accessibility exist. We identified cross-border threats for VHF exposure and demonstrate an opportunity to improve preparedness activities through the use of precision public health methods and data-driven insights for resource allocation as part of a country's preparedness plans.

Global distribution and environmental suitability for chikungunya virus, 1952 to 2015.

Chikungunya fever is an acute febrile illness caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which is transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. Although chikungunya fever is rarely fatal, patients can experience debilitating symptoms that last from months to years. Here we comprehensively assess the global distribution of chikungunya and produce high-resolution maps, using an established modelling framework that combines a comprehensive occurrence database with bespoke environmental correlates, including up-to-date Aedes distribution maps. This enables estimation of the current total population-at-risk of CHIKV transmission and identification of areas where the virus may spread to in the future. We identified 94 countries with good evidence for current CHIKV presence and a set of countries in the New and Old World with potential for future CHIKV establishment, demonstrated by high environmental suitability for transmission and in some cases previous sporadic reports. Aedes aegypti presence was identified as one of the major contributing factors to CHIKV transmission but significant geographical heterogeneity exists. We estimated 1.3 billion people are living in areas at-risk of CHIKV transmission. These maps provide a baseline for identifying areas where prevention and control efforts should be prioritised and can be used to guide estimation of the global burden of CHIKV.

Measurement of cardiac output by transpulmonary arterial thermodilution using a long radial artery catheter. A comparison with intermittent pulmonary artery thermodilution.

Cardiac output can be measured accurately by transpulmonary arterial thermodilution using the PiCCO (Pulsion Medical Systems, Munich, Germany) system with a femoral artery catheter. We have investigated the accuracy of a new 50 cm 4 French gauge radial artery catheter and the ability to use the system with a shorter radial catheter. We studied 18 patients who had undergone coronary artery surgery and made three simultaneous measurements of cardiac output by arterial thermodilution and with a pulmonary artery catheter. The radial catheter was withdrawn in 5 cm increments and the measurements were repeated. We found close agreement between arterial thermodilution and pulmonary artery thermodilution with a mean (SD) bias of 0.38 (0.77) l x min(-1). Arterial thermodilution became unreliable once the catheter had been withdrawn by more than 5 cm. We conclude that cardiac output measurement with arterial thermodilution with a radial catheter is interchangeable with that derived from a pulmonary artery catheter, and that a centrally sited arterial catheter is required for accurate determination of cardiac output by transpulmonary arterial thermodilution.

Redistribution of halothane and sevoflurane under simulated conditions of acute airway obstruction.

Forty patients having surgery requiring muscle paralysis and tracheal intubation were randomly allocated to receive either halothane (n = 20) or sevoflurane (n = 20). Following intravenous anaesthesia and tracheal intubation, inhalation induction of anaesthesia was simulated. After attaining an end-tidal anaesthetic concentration of 2 MAC for the respective agent, the airway was obstructed for 3 min. The end-tidal anaesthetic concentration was measured for the first three breaths following the period of airway obstruction. The decrease in alveolar concentration of sevoflurane following 3 min of airway obstruction was found to be significantly greater than that of halothane. We conclude that even if the airway obstructs completely during inhalational induction of general anaesthesia, awakening would be faster with sevoflurane than with halothane.

Research and development of an implantable, axial-flow left ventricular assist device: the Jarvik 2000 Heart.

Advances in technology and increased clinical need have led to the development of a new type of blood pump. The Jarvik 2000 Heart is an electrically powered, axial-flow left ventricular assist device that has been developed during the past 13 years. Unlike first-generation left ventricular assist devices, which were developed in the 1970s and were designed to totally capture the cardiac output, the Jarvik 2000 is designed to normalize the cardiac output by augmenting the function of the chronically failed heart for extended periods. Design iterations have been tested in 67 animals, and clinical trials have recently begun. Three patients have received the Jarvik 2000 as a bridge to transplantation, and 1 patient is being supported permanently outside the hospital. All 4 patients have improved from New York Heart Association functional class IV to class I, and 2 of them have been discharged from the hospital after heart transplantation. The experimental and clinical results indicate that the Jarvik 2000 can provide physiologic support with minimal complications and is reliable, biocompatible, and easy to implant.

First permanent implant of the Jarvik 2000 Heart.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major public-health concern. Quality and duration of life on maximum medical therapy are poor. The availability of donor hearts is severely limited, therefore an alternative approach is necessary. We have explored the use of a new type of left-ventricular assist device intended as a long-term solution to end-stage heart failure. METHODS: As part of a prospective clinical trial, we implanted the first permanent Jarvik 2000 Heart--an intraventricular device with an innovative power delivery system--into a 61-year-old man (New York Heart Association functional class IV) with dilated cardiomyopathy. We assessed the effect of this left-ventricular assist device on both native heart function and the symptoms and systemic characteristics of heart failure. FINDINGS: The Jarvik 2000 Heart sustained the patient's circulation, and was practical and user-friendly. After 6 weeks, exercise tolerance, myocardial function, and end-organ function improved. Symptoms of heart failure have resolved, and continuous decreased pulse-pressure perfusion has had no adverse effects in the short term. There has been no significant haemolysis and no device-related complications. The skull-mounted pedestal is unobtrusive and has healed well. CONCLUSIONS: The initial success of this procedure raises the possibility of a new treatment for end-stage heart failure. In the longer term, its role will be determined by mechanical reliability.

Mechanical bridge to recovery in fulminant myocarditis.

A patient with acute fulminant lymphocytic myocarditis and cardiogenic shock was successfully treated by mechanical off loading of the left ventricle. A nonpulsatile left-heart bypass was undertaken with an implantable centrifugal blood pump. Careful weaning resulted in device removal on the seventh day. Left and right ventricular function is sustained at 7 months. Widespread application of this method depends on the availability of an inexpensive user friendly blood pump, appropriate weaning protocols and emerging strategies to promote sustainable myocardial recovery.

Effect of omitting regular ACE inhibitor medication before cardiac surgery on haemodynamic variables and vasoactive drug requirements.

Adverse events during coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery have been described in patients receiving angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, including hypotension on induction of anaesthesia and an increase in vasoconstrictor requirements after cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). Omitting regular ACE inhibitor medication before surgery may improve cardiovascular stability during anaesthesia. We evaluated prospectively the effect of omitting regular ACE inhibitor medication before CABG surgery on haemodynamic variables and use of vasoactive drugs. We studied 40 patients with good left ventricular function, allocated randomly to omit or continue ACE inhibitor medication before surgery. Arterial pressure, cardiac output, systemic vascular resistance and use of vasoactive drugs were recorded during anaesthesia and in the early postoperative period. Patients who omitted their ACE inhibitors had greater mean arterial pressure during the study and required less vasopressors during CPB. However, these patients required more vasodilators to control hypertension after CPB and in the early postoperative period. There was no difference in hypotension on induction of anaesthesia or in the use of vasoconstrictors after CPB. We conclude that omitting ACE inhibitors before surgery did not have sufficient advantage to be recommended routinely.

Jarvik 2000 heart: potential for bridge to myocyte recovery.

BACKGROUND: Mechanical bridge to left ventricular recovery is an emerging strategy for the treatment of heart failure. We sought to validate the use of a new intracardiac axial flow impeller pump for this purpose. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Jarvik 2000 Heart was implanted into 30 sheep to ascertain mechanical reliability, biocompatibility, and hemodynamic function. We attempted but failed to anticoagulate with warfarin. Elective explants with survival were performed in 3 animals to simulate bridge to recovery. Extensive autopsy studies were performed in all other animals. At speeds between 8000 and 12 000 rpm the device pumped up to 8 L/min, captured all mitral flow, and augmented cardiac output with elevation of mean arterial pressure. The pump was silent and hemolysis negligible. Nonpulsatile flow did not adversely affect neurological or renal function. Device removal proved straightforward and safe. A fractured inflow bearing occurred in 1 early model. There were no other pump failures, but power interruption occurred when the sheep chewed the cables or head-butted the percutaneous pedestal. At autopsy, there was no thromboembolism or primary thrombus formation in any device. Pump occlusion occurred in 2 sheep with bacterial endocarditis. One electively explanted pump, previously switched off for 5 months, had no thrombus in the device or vascular graft. CONCLUSIONS: The Jarvik 2000 Heart is a major advance in blood-pump technology and increases the scope of mechanical circulatory support. Reliability and ease of removal favor its use for bridge to myocyte recovery, as well as for bridge to transplantation or long-term support.

The cuffed oropharyngeal airway as an aid to fibreoptic intubation.

The cuffed oropharyngeal airway is a new disposable airway based on the Guedel oral airway. It has an asymmetrical cuff which provides a seal as well as lifting the base of the tongue forwards, and a 15-mm connector allowing attachment to an anaesthetic breathing system. The device does not extend beyond the vallecula, so that the laryngeal inlet can be visualised with a fibreoptic laryngoscope passed between the cuff of the device and the pharyngeal wall. The advantage is that ventilation is maintained throughout the intubating sequence. We describe its use in a patient with oropharyngeal carcinoma.

Cardiovascular effects of concomitant administration of isoflurane and nicorandil in dogs.

Nicorandil, a new KATP channel opener, is used in clinical practice for anti-anginal therapy. It exhibits vasodilator properties as does the halogenated anaesthetic isoflurane. We have examined the cardiovascular effects of increasing concentrations of isoflurane after administration of nicorandil in 10 adult beagle dogs anaesthetized with thiopental and whose lungs were ventilated mechanically. During surgery, anaesthesia was maintained with 1.0-1.5% isoflurane. A left thoracotomy was performed and the heart suspended in a pericardial cradle. Monitoring included: ECG; aortic, left ventricular, arterial, central venous and pulmonary artery pressures; cardiac output; coronary flow; and segmental length in the apical region. After surgery, isoflurane anaesthesia was set at an end-tidal concentration of 1.05% (1 MAC) and measurements obtained; these were repeated with 1.4%, 1.75%, 2.1% and 1.05% isoflurane concentrations after appropriate stabilization periods. Nicorandil (100 micrograms kg-1 bolus, 25 micrograms kg-1 min-1 infusion) was begun and a second dose-response study of isoflurane was obtained as before. Blood samples were obtained for measurement of concentrations of nicorandil. Systolic ventricular function was assessed by systolic shortening (%SS) and preload recruitable stroke work (PRSW). Increasing isoflurane concentration produced decreases in heart rate, systolic pressure, cardiac output, %SS and PRSW. Nicorandil produced a slight decrease in systolic arterial pressure (10 and 15 mm Hg after 1.05% and 2.05% isoflurane) and a slight increase in heart rate (10 and 5 beat min-1 after 1.05% and 2.05% isoflurane). Preload, assessed by end-diastolic length, decreased. Coronary blood flow increased with infusion of nicorandil. Left ventricular function was not affected by infusion of nicorandil. We conclude that nicorandil has only minor vaso/venodilatory effects in the presence of isoflurane. Ventricular function was not altered by infusion of nicorandil.

LVAD power delivery: a percutaneous approach to avoid infection.

BACKGROUND: Driveline infection limits the event-free survival of patients with a left ventricular assist device. With the evolving prospect of improved left ventricular assist devices in the bridge-to-transplantation or recovery setting, we sought to reduce the risk of driveline complications. METHODS: As part of the Oxford Jarvik 2000 research program, we developed a carbon and then titanium pedestal to transmit the electric wires through the skin. In a sheep model, the pedestal was brought out through the skin of the shoulder (n = 10) or the scalp (n = 9) with underlying fixation to the skull. Exit wounds were carefully inspected for healing and infection. Power cable durability tests were performed in 6 additional animals without an implanted pump. RESULTS: The cumulative observation period was 1,491 days (mean time, 78 days; range, 14 days to 198 days). There was no difference in observation period between the two groups. Infection (n = 2) and impaired healing (n = 5) occurred in the mobile tissues at the shoulder. Skull-mounted pedestals were free from infection or healing problems. The electric cables were not interrupted by repeated neck flexion (cumulative observation period, 588 days). The carbon pedestal was replaced by a titanium pedestal when the head butting of the sheep fractured the carbon. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of rigid fixation and highly vascular scalp skin reduces the risk of percutaneous driveline infection and may solve an important outstanding problem in use of left ventricular assist devices.

The Jarvik 2000 Oxford system: increasing the scope of mechanical circulatory support.

METHODS: We developed a system for mechanical circulatory support based on the Jarvik 2000 intraventricular axial flow impeller pump (Jarvik Research, Inc., New York, N.Y.) and percutaneous electric power. The adult pump provides flow at a rate up to 10 L/min with an energy requirement of 7 to 10 watts. The device was implanted into the apex of the left ventricle through a left thoracotomy without cardiopulmonary bypass. A Dacron graft conveyed blood to the descending thoracic aorta. In patients, we will use a skull-mounted carbon pedestal to transmit fine electric wires through the scalp skin. Being highly vascular, the scalp skin is resistant to infection. RESULTS: We tested 16 adult systems and one pediatric system in 17 adult ewes weighing between 60 and 90 kg. Five died of perioperative complications. Twelve survived between 3 and 198 days (mean 44 days) with a functioning device. None of the sheep could receive adequate anticoagulation with warfarin (INR 1.0 to 1.5). Acute thrombotic occlusion occurred after a 3-hour power loss in one device (46 days) but was cleared with streptokinase. In a second animal with endocarditis, the pump inflow became occluded with vegetations. No other device-related problems or important hemolysis developed despite pump speeds between 10,000 and 18,000 rpm. Renal function remained normal in all animals. Autopsy studies showed no pannus ingrowth at the device inflow despite the restrictive left ventricular cavity size. No sign of thromboembolism could be detected in the brains or kidneys. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate the Jarvik 2000 Oxford System to be a safe and effective circulatory assist device. Potential uses include permanent circulatory support, bridge to transplantation, or bridge to myocardial recovery in acute or chronic left ventricular failure.