A Digital Twin modelling framework for the assessment of seagrass Nature Based Solutions against storm surges.

In this paper we demonstrate a novel framework for assessing nature-based solutions (NBSs) in coastal zones using a new suite of numerical models that provide a virtual "replica" of the natural environment. We design experiments that use a Digital Twin strategy to establish the wave, sea level and current attenuation due to seagrass NBSs. This Digital Twin modelling framework allows us to answer "what if" scenario questions such as: (i) are indigenous seagrass meadows able to reduce the energy of storm surges, and if so how? (ii) what are the best seagrass types and their landscaping for optimal wave and current attenuation? An important result of the study is to show that the landscaping of seagrasses is an important design choice and that seagrass does not directly attenuate the sea level but the current amplitudes. This framework reveals the link between seagrass NBS and the components of the disruptive potential of storm surges (waves and sea level) and opens up new avenues for future studies.

Towards a common oil spill risk assessment framework ­ Adapting ISO 31000 and addressing uncertainties.

Oil spills are a transnational problem, and establishing a common standard methodology for Oil Spill Risk Assessments (OSRAs) is thus paramount in order to protect marine environments and coastal communities. In this study we firstly identified the strengths and weaknesses of the OSRAs carried out in various parts of the globe. We then searched for a generic and recognized standard, i.e. ISO 31000, in order to design a method to perform OSRAs in a scientific and standard way. The new framework was tested for the Lebanon oil spill that occurred in 2006 employing ensemble oil spill modeling to quantify the risks and uncertainties due to unknown spill characteristics. The application of the framework generated valuable visual instruments for the transparent communication of the risks, replacing the use of risk tolerance levels, and thus highlighting the priority areas to protect in case of an oil spill.

Towards improving the representation of beaching in oil spill models: a case study.

Oil-shoreline interaction (or "beaching" as commonly referred to in literature) is an issue of major concern in oil spill modeling, due to the significant environmental, social and economic importance of coastal areas. The present work studies the improvement of the representation of beaching brought by the introduction of the Oil Holding Capacity approach to estimate oil concentration on coast, along with new approaches for coast type assignment to shoreline segments and the calculation of permanent oil attachment to the coast. The above were tested for the Lebanon oil spill of 2006, using a modified version of the open-source oil spill model MEDSLIK-II. The modified model results were found to be in good agreement with field observations for the specific case study, and their comparison with the original model results denote the significant improvement in the fate of beached oil brought by the proposed changes.

Hindcast of oil-spill pollution during the Lebanon crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, July-August 2006.

MOON (Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network http://www.moon-oceanforecasting.eu) provides near-real-time information on oil-spill detection (ocean color and SAR) and predictions [ocean forecasts (MFS and CYCOFOS) and oil-spill predictions (MEDSLIK)]. We employ this system to study the Lebanese oil-pollution crisis in summer 2006 and thus to assist regional and local decision makers in Europe, regionally and locally. The MEDSLIK oil-spill predictions obtained using CYCOFOS high-resolution ocean fields are compared with those obtained using lower-resolution MFS hydrodynamics, and both are validated against satellite observations. The predicted beached oil distributions along the Lebanese and Syrian coasts are compared with in situ observations. The oil-spill predictions are able to simulate the northward movement of the oil spill, with the CYCOFOS predictions being in better agreement with satellite observations. Among the free MEDSLIK parameters tested in the sensitivity experiments, the drift factor appears to be the most relevant to improve the quality of the results.

On the assessment of Argo float trajectory assimilation in the Mediterranean Forecasting System.

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) has been operational for a decade, and is continuously providing forecasts and analyses for the region. These forecasts comprise local- and basin-scale information of the environmental state of the sea and can be useful for tracking oil spills and supporting search-and-rescue missions. Data assimilation is a widely used method to improve the forecast skill of operational models and, in this study, the three-dimensional variational (OceanVar) scheme has been extended to include Argo float trajectories, with the objective of constraining and ameliorating the numerical output primarily in terms of the intermediate velocity fields at 350 m depth. When adding new datasets, it is furthermore crucial to ensure that the extended OceanVar scheme does not decrease the performance of the assimilation of other observations, e.g., sea-level anomalies, temperature, and salinity. Numerical experiments were undertaken for a 3-year period (2005-2007), and it was concluded that the Argo float trajectory assimilation improves the quality of the forecasted trajectories with ~15%, thus, increasing the realism of the model. Furthermore, the MFS proved to maintain the forecast quality of the sea-surface height and mass fields after the extended assimilation scheme had been introduced. A comparison between the modeled velocity fields and independent surface drifter observations suggested that assimilating trajectories at intermediate depth could yield improved forecasts of the upper ocean currents.

A numerical study of the interannual variability of the Adriatic Sea (2000-2002).

A free-surface, three-dimensional finite-difference numerical model based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) has been implemented in order to simulate the interannual variability of the Adriatic Sea circulation. The implementation makes use of an interactive surface momentum and heat flux computation that utilizes the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 6-h analyses and the model predicted sea surface temperatures. The model is also nested at its open boundary with a coarse-resolution Mediterranean general circulation model, utilizing the same surface forcing functions. The simulation and analysis period spans 3 years (1 Jan 2000 to 31 Dec 2002) coinciding with the "Mucilage in the Adriatic and the Tyrrhenian" (MAT) Project monitoring activities. Model results for the simulated years show a strong interannual variability of the basin averaged proprieties and circulation patterns, linked to the atmospheric forcing variability and the Po river runoff. In particular, the years 2000 and 2002 are characterized by a weak surface cooling (with respect to the climatological value) and well-marked spring and autumn river runoff maxima. Conversely, 2001 is characterized by stronger wind and heat (autumn cooling) forcings but no river runoff autumn peak, even though the total amount of water inflow during winter and spring is sustained. The circulation is characterized by similar patterns in 2000 and 2002 but very different structures in 2001. During the latter, deep water is not formed in the northern Adriatic. A comparison with the observed data shows that the major model deficiencies are connected to the low salinity of the waters, probably connected to the missed inflow of salty Ionian waters of Aegean origin and to the numerical overestimation of the vertical mixing processes.