Cost of inaction: a framework to estimate the economic cost of missing a patient with tuberculosis in the Indian context.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the economic impact of failure to find and treat tuberculosis disease and prevent tuberculosis infection from progressing to active disease. DESIGN: Estimating the economic cost of not finding and treating a patient suffering from tuberculosis. SETTING: Estimation methodology is developed in the Indian context, as informed by local costs and reported tuberculosis epidemiology. PARTICIPANTS: No individual participants were included. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure is the total cost of patients with drug-susceptible and drug-resistant tuberculosis who are and are not found and treated by tuberculosis programmes, including costs for medications, lost productivity, healthcare services and furthered transmission. We calculate the economic burdens by varying the number of individuals a person sick with tuberculosis infects (10 or 15 people) and the risk of progression to tuberculosis disease if infected (5 or 8%). The secondary outcome measure is the amount saved by finding a patient early or who would not have otherwise been found. All costs are presented in US dollars (exchange rate: 72 Indian rupees/1 US$). RESULTS: By finding and treating a patient early before furthered transmission occurs-or stopping progression of tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease with preventive therapy-the Indian health system can save US$5502 to US$15 825 and US$5846 to US$25 575, for each individual with drug-susceptible and drug-resistant tuberculosis, respectively, across scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: These estimates provide crude, lower bounds for the potential costs of not appropriately diagnosing and treating a single patient with active tuberculosis in a timely manner, or preventing a patient with tuberculosis infection from progressing to active disease. The actual financial burden on society is far higher than estimated using this simple, short-term cost-effective analyses. Our results highlight the limitations of tuberculosis costing models to date, and demonstrate the importance of accounting for airborne transmission of tuberculosis.

A costing framework to compare tuberculosis infection tests.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a framework to estimate the practical costs incurred from, and programmatic impact related to, tuberculosis (TB) infection testing-tuberculin skin tests (TST) versus interferon gamma release assay (IGRA)-in a densely populated high-burden TB area. METHODS: We developed a seven-step framework that can be tailored to individual TB programmes seeking to compare TB infection (TBI) diagnostics to inform decision-making. We present methodology to estimate (1) the prevalence of TBI, (2) true and false positives and negatives for each test, (3) the cost of test administration, (4) the cost of false negatives, (5) the cost of treating all that test positive, (6) the per-test cost incurred due to treatment and misdiagnosis and (7) the threshold at which laboratory infrastructure investments for IGRA are outweighed by system-wide savings incurred due to IGRA utilisation. We then applied this framework in a densely populated, peri-urban district in Lima, Peru with high rates of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination. FINDINGS: The lower sensitivity of TST compared with IGRA is a major cost driver, leading to health system and societal costs due to misdiagnosis. Additionally, patient and staff productivity costs were greater for TST because it requires two patient visits compared with only one for IGRA testing. When the framework was applied to the Lima setting, we estimate that IGRA-associated benefits outweigh infrastructural costs after performing 672 tests. CONCLUSIONS: Given global shortages of TST and concerns about costs of IGRA testing and laboratory capacity building, this costing framework can provide public health officials and TB programmes guidance for decision-making about TBI testing locally. This framework was designed to be adaptable for use in different settings with available data. Diagnostics that increase accuracy or mitigate time to treatment should be thought of as an investment instead of an expenditure.

The consumer welfare implications of governmental policies and firm strategy in markets for medicines.

This paper empirically examines the consumer welfare implications of changes in government policies related to patent protection and compulsory licensing in the Indian market for oral anti-diabetic (OAD) medicines. In contrast to previous studies on the impact of pharmaceutical patents in India, we observe, and estimate the welfare effects accruing from differential pricing and voluntary licensing strategies of patent-holding innovator firms. Three novel molecules belonging to the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor class of OADs have been launched in India by the patent holders, at lower prices than those prevailing in the developed countries. Using aggregate market transaction data, we structurally estimate demand and supply and use the parameter estimates in our model to simulate consumer welfare under various counterfactual scenarios. Our results suggest that the introduction of DPP-4 inhibitors generated a consumer surplus gain of around 7.6 cents per day for a typical DPP-4 inhibitor user under the existing differential pricing and voluntary licensing strategies. If the innovators decide to price at developed-country levels, this surplus is eliminated almost entirely. The issuance of compulsory licensing does not always improve consumer welfare because if innovators defer or delay the introduction of new drugs in response, the loss in consumer welfare could be substantial.