RESUMO
Improvements in modelling power and input data have vastly improved the precision of physical flood models, but translation into economic outputs requires depth-damage functions that are inadequately verified. In particular, flood damage is widely assumed to increase monotonically with water depth. Here, we assess flood vulnerability in the US using >2 million claims from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). NFIP claims data are messy, but the size of the dataset provides powerful empirical tests of damage patterns and modelling approaches. We show that current depth-damage functions consist of disparate relationships that match poorly with observations. Observed flood losses are not monotonic functions of depth, but instead better follow a beta function, with bimodal distributions for different water depths. Uncertainty in flood losses has been called the main bottleneck in flood risk studies, an obstacle that may be remedied using large-scale empirical flood damage data.
RESUMO
Recent studies have suggested that the first arrival of humans in the Americas during the end of the last Ice Age is associated with marked anthropogenic influences on landscape; in particular, with the use of fire which, would have given even small populations the ability to have broad impacts on the landscape. Understanding the impact of these early people is complicated by the dramatic changes in climate occurring with the shift from glacial to interglacial conditions. Despite these difficulties, we here attempt to test the extent of anthropogenic influence using the California Channel Islands as a smaller, landscape-scale test bed. These islands are famous for the discovery of the 'Arlington Springs Man', which are some of the earliest human remains in the Americas. A unifying sedimentary charcoal record is presented from Arlington Canyon, Santa Rosa Island, based on over 20 detailed sedimentary sections from eight key localities. Radiocarbon dating was based on thin, fragile, long fragments of charcoal in order to avoid the 'inbuilt' age problem. Radiocarbon dating of 49 such fragments has allowed inferences regarding the fire and landscape history of the Canyon ca 19-11 ka BP. A significant period of charcoal deposition is identified approximately 14-12.5 ka BP and bears remarkable closeness to an estimated age range of the first human arrival on the islands.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.
Assuntos
Arqueologia , Ecossistema , Incêndios , Paleontologia , California , Humanos , IlhasRESUMO
The causes of the late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions in North America, disappearance of Clovis paleoindian lithic technology, and abrupt Younger-Dryas (YD) climate reversal of the last deglacial warming in the Northern Hemisphere remain an enigma. A controversial hypothesis proposes that one or more cometary airbursts/impacts barraged North America ≈12,900 cal yr B.P. and caused these events. Most evidence supporting this hypothesis has been discredited except for reports of nanodiamonds (including the rare hexagonal polytype) in Bølling-Ållerod-YD-boundary sediments. The hexagonal polytype of diamond, lonsdaleite, is of particular interest because it is often associated with shock pressures related to impacts where it has been found to occur naturally. Unfortunately, previous reports of YD-boundary nanodiamonds have left many unanswered questions regarding the nature and occurrence of the nanodiamonds. Therefore, we examined carbon-rich materials isolated from sediments dated 15,818 cal yr B.P. to present (including the Bølling-Allerod-YD boundary). No nanodiamonds were found in our study. Instead, graphene- and graphene/graphane-oxide aggregates are ubiquitous in all specimens examined. We demonstrate that previous studies misidentified graphene/graphane-oxide aggregates as hexagonal diamond and likely misidentified graphene as cubic diamond. Our results cast doubt upon one of the last widely discussed pieces of evidence supporting the YD impact hypothesis.
