COVID-19 Contact Tracing as an Indicator for Evaluating a Pandemic Situation: Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing is a fundamental intervention in public health. When systematically applied, it enables the breaking of chains of transmission, which is important for controlling COVID-19 transmission. In theoretically perfect contact tracing, all new cases should occur among quarantined individuals, and an epidemic should vanish. However, the availability of resources influences the capacity to perform contact tracing. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate its effectiveness threshold. We propose that this effectiveness threshold may be indirectly estimated using the ratio of COVID-19 cases arising from quarantined high-risk contacts, where higher ratios indicate better control and, under a threshold, contact tracing may fail and other restrictions become necessary. OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the ratio of COVID-19 cases in high-risk contacts quarantined through contact tracing and its potential use as an ancillary pandemic control indicator. METHODS: We built a 6-compartment epidemiological model to emulate COVID-19 infection flow according to publicly available data from Portuguese authorities. Our model extended the usual susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model by adding a compartment Q with individuals in mandated quarantine who could develop infection or return to the susceptible pool and a compartment P with individuals protected from infection because of vaccination. To model infection dynamics, data on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk (IR), time until infection, and vaccine efficacy were collected. Estimation was needed for vaccine data to reflect the timing of inoculation and booster efficacy. In total, 2 simulations were built: one adjusting for the presence and absence of variants or vaccination and another maximizing IR in quarantined individuals. Both simulations were based on a set of 100 unique parameterizations. The daily ratio of infected cases arising from high-risk contacts (q estimate) was calculated. A theoretical effectiveness threshold of contact tracing was defined for 14-day average q estimates based on the classification of COVID-19 daily cases according to the pandemic phases and was compared with the timing of population lockdowns in Portugal. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the relationship between different parameter values and the threshold obtained. RESULTS: An inverse relationship was found between the q estimate and daily cases in both simulations (correlations >0.70). The theoretical effectiveness thresholds for both simulations attained an alert phase positive predictive value of >70% and could have anticipated the need for additional measures in at least 4 days for the second and fourth lockdowns. Sensitivity analysis showed that only the IR and booster dose efficacy at inoculation significantly affected the q estimates. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the impact of applying an effectiveness threshold for contact tracing on decision-making. Although only theoretical thresholds could be provided, their relationship with the number of confirmed cases and the prediction of pandemic phases shows the role as an indirect indicator of the efficacy of contact tracing.

Factors associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions compliance during COVID-19 pandemic: a Portuguese cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: The use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) is one of the main tools used in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic response, including physical distancing, frequent hand washing, face mask use, respiratory hygiene and use of contact tracing apps. Literature on compliance with NPI during the COVID-19 pandemic is limited. METHODS: We studied this compliance and associated factors in Portugal, between 28th October 2020 and 11th January 2021 (Portuguese second and third waves of the pandemic), using logistic regressions. Data were collected through a web-based survey and included questions regarding NPI compliance, COVID-19-related concerns, perception of institutions' performance, agreement with the measures implemented and socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: From the 1263 eligible responses, we found high levels of compliance among all COVID-19 related NPI, except for the contact tracing app. Females and older participants showed the highest compliance levels, whereas the opposite was observed for previously infected participants. There was heterogeneity of COVID-19 NPI compliance across Portuguese regions and a clear gradient between concern, government performance's perception or agreement and compliance. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggested areas for further study with important implications for pandemic management and communication, for future preparedness, highlighting other factors to be accounted for when recommending policy measures during public health threats.

Does working at home compromise mental health? A study on European mature adults in COVID times.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed working at home (WAH) into the exclusive mode of working for many European workers. Although WAH will likely remain after COVID-19, its consequences on workers' health are unclear. This study examines the association of WAH and the change of four mental health (MH) domains. METHODS: We used data from the last wave of the Survey on Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, collected in June and July 2020 on European people aged 50 and older. We restricted our analysis to people aged 50-65 who were working before COVID-19 (N = 7065). We modeled the risk of worsening of depression and anxiety feelings, sleeping trouble, and feelings of loneliness as a function of the working situation (usual setting, at home and usual setting, at home only), using logistic regressions. A first model adjusted for sociodemographic variables, a second one adding country fixed effects, and the last one adding the stringency of COVID-19-related restrictions. RESULTS: WAH was significantly associated with a worsening of all MH symptoms. Nevertheless, when the stringency index was factored in, no significant association of WAH was found with any of the health outcomes except for anxiety feelings (+4.3% points). However, the increased anxiety feelings among people in WAH were not greater than the one observed among nonworkers. DISCUSSION: Our findings show that WAH was not a major cause of mental health deterioration among European mature adults during the first month of the pandemic. Further evidence is needed on WAH under post-COVID-19 "normal" circumstances.

COVID-19, Fake News, and Vaccines: Should Regulation Be Implemented?

We analysed issues concerning the establishment of compulsory vaccination against COVID-19, as well as the role of misinformation as a disincentive-especially when published by health professionals-and citizen acceptance of measures in this regard. Data from different surveys revealed a high degree of hesitation rather than outright opposition to vaccines. The most frequent complaint related to the COVID-19 vaccination was the fear of side effects. Within the Spanish and European legislative framework, both compulsory vaccination and government regulation of FN (Fake News) appear to be feasible options, counting on sufficient legal support, which could be reinforced by additional amendment. However, following current trends of good governance, policymakers must have public legitimation. Rather than compulsory COVID-19 vaccination, an approach based on education and truthful information, persuading the population of the benefits of a vaccine on a voluntary basis, is recommended. Disagreements between health professionals are positive, but they should be resolved following good practice and the procedures of the code of ethics. Furthermore, citizens do not support the involvement of government authorities in the direct control of news. Collaboration with the media and other organizations should be used instead.

Concerns and adjustments: How the Portuguese population met COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to disruptive changes worldwide, with different implications across countries. The evolution of citizens' concerns and behaviours over time is a central piece to support public policies. OBJECTIVE: To unveil perceptions and behaviours of the Portuguese population regarding social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing for more informed public policies. METHODS: Online panel survey distributed in three waves between March 13th and May 6th 2020. Data collected from a non-representative sample of 7,448 respondents includes socio-demographic characteristics and self-reported measures on levels of concern and behaviours related to COVID-19. We performed descriptive analysis and probit regressions to understand relationships between the different variables. RESULTS: Most participants (85%) report being at least very concerned with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and social isolation reached a high level of adherence during the state of emergency. Around 36% of the sample anticipated consumption decisions, stockpiling ahead of the state of emergency declaration. Medical appointments suffered severe consequences, being re-rescheduled or cancelled. We find important variation in concerns with the economic impact across activity sectors. CONCLUSION: We show that high level of concern and behaviour adaptation in our sample preceded the implementation of lockdown measures in Portugal around mid-March. One month later, a large share of individuals had suffered disruption in their routine health care and negative impacts in their financial status.

How to govern the digital transformation of health services.

The impact of digitalization of health services has been profound and is expected to be even more profound in the future. It is important to evaluate whether digital health services contribute to health system goals in an optimal way. This should be done at the level of the service, not the 'digital transformation'. Decisions to adopt new digital health services, at different levels of the health care system, are ideally based on evidence regarding their performance in light of health system goals. In order to evaluate this, a broad perspective should be taken in evaluations of digital health services. Attainment of the broad health system goals, including quality, efficiency and equity, are objectives against which to judge new digital health services. These goals in a broad sense are unaltered by the process of digitalization. Governance should be designed and tailored in such a way to capture all relevant changes in an adequate way. When evaluating digital health services many specific aspects need to be considered. Like for other innovations and (new) technologies, such promises may or may not materialize and potential benefits may also be accompanied by unintended and/or negative (side) effects in the short or long term. Hence, the introduction, implementation, use and funding of digital health technologies should be carefully evaluated and monitored. Governments should play a more active role in the further optimization both of the process of decision making (both at the central and decentral level) and the related outcomes. They need to find a balance between centralized and decentralized activity. Moreover, the broader preparation of the health care system to be able to deal with digitalization, from education, through financial and regulatory preconditions, to implementation of monitoring systems to monitor its effects on health system performance remains important.

[Scientific Research Policy for Health in Portugal: I - European and National Environment]. / Política de Investigação Científica para a Saúde em Portugal: I - Enquadramento Europeu e Nacional.

The global debate on scientific research policy for human health has been led by World Health Organisation with important contributions from other stakeholders such as Council on Health Research for Development, the World Bank and the Global Forum for Health Research. Recently it has been dominated by the thematic agendas of major global financiers. There is a growing interest worldwide in making better use of the evidence resulting from scientific research in health, in the decision-making process regarding health policies, which is fraught with difficulties, as it is the case in Europe. After more than 40 years of democracy and 30 years of European integration, Portugal has bridged the research gap it had previously. However, when compared to global and European research policies, Portugal still has a long way to go regarding investment in research and development.

O debate global sobre a política de investigação científica para a saúde humana tem sido liderado pela Organização Mundial da Saúde com contribuições importantes de outros stakeholders como o Council on Health Research for Development, o Banco Mundial e o Fórum Global para Investigação em Saúde, dominado recentemente pelas agendas temáticas de grandes financiadores globais. Existe um crescente interesse mundial em fazer melhor uso da evidência resultante da investigação científica para saúde, nas tomadas de decisão relacionadas com a definição de políticas de saúde. Na Europa verifica-se porém a existência de uma complexidade inerente à interação entre a investigação e a tomada de decisão política. Após cerca de 40 anos de democracia e 30 anos de integração europeia, Portugal superou o atraso científico estrutural. Contudo, a análise desta matéria à luz das políticas de investigação definidas a nível global e europeu mostra que há ainda um longo caminho a percorrer quando se fala em investimento global em Investigação & Desenvolvimento.

[Economic Crisis and Portuguese National Health Service Physicians: Findings from a Descriptive Study of Their Perceptions and Reactions from Health Care Units in the Greater Lisbon Area]. / A Crise Económica em Médicos do Serviço Nacional de Saúde: Estudo Descritivo das Suas Perceções e Reações em Unidades de Saúde na Região da Grande Lisboa.

INTRODUCTION: In Europe, scant scientific evidence exists on the impact of economic crisis on physicians. This study aims at understanding the adjustments made by public sector physicians to the changing conditions, and their perceptions on the market for medical services in the Lisbon metropolitan area. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A random sample of 484 physicians from São José Hospital and health center groups in Cascais and Amadora, to explore their perceptions of the economic crisis, and the changes brought to their workload. This paper provides a descriptive statistical analysis of physicians' responses. RESULTS: In connection to the crisis, our surveyed physicians perceived an increase in demand but a decrease of supply of public health services, as well as an increase in the supply of health services by the private sector. Damaging government policies for the public sector, and the rise of private services and insurance providers were identified as game changers for the sector. Physicians reported a decrease in public remuneration (- 30.5%) and a small increase of public sector hours. A general reduction in living standard was identified as the main adaptation strategy to the crisis. Passion for the profession, its independence and flexibility, were the most frequently mentioned compensating factors. A percentage of 15% of physicians declared considering migration as a possibility for the near future. DISCUSSION: The crisis has brought non-negligible changes to physicians' working conditions and to the wider market for medical services in Portugal. CONCLUSION: The physicians' intrinsic motivation for the professions helped counterbalance salary cuts and deteriorating working conditions.

Introdução: Na Europa, a evidência sobre o impacto da crise económica nos médicos ainda é escassa. Este estudo explora perceções, opiniões e estratégias de adaptação à crise económica por parte de médicos do setor público na área da Grande Lisboa em Portugal. Material e Métodos: Um inquérito foi aplicado a 484 médicos, selecionados aleatoriamente, no Hospital de São José de Lisboa (n = 302) e nos agrupamentos de centros de saúde primários de Cascais (n = 96) e Amadora (n = 86). Este trabalho baseia-se na análise estatística descritiva das respostas dadas pelos médicos inquiridos sobre as suas perceções do impacto da crise económica no mercado de serviços médicos (n = 484), das mudanças introduzidas no seu trabalho nos setores público (n = 346) e privado (n = 187), e nas suas intenções de migrar (n = 482). Resultados: Os médicos inquiridos percepcionaram um aumento da procura dos serviços, mas também uma redução de serviços oferecidos no público, relacionando estas situações com a crise e com um aumento da oferta no setor privado. Os médicos reportaram uma diminuição de salário no setor público (- 30,5%), e um ligeiro aumento no número de horas de trabalho semanal neste setor (+ 2 horas). As respostas indicaram que a mediana das horas de trabalho e rendimentos no privado mantiveram-se constantes entre 2010 e 2015 (16 horas e €2000 mensais). O ajustamento no estilo de vida foi reportado como a principal consequência da crise. O gosto pela profissão médica, a independência e a flexibilidade do trabalho foram os fatores de alívio mais mencionados. Uma percentagem de 15% dos médicos inquiridos declarou considerar a emigração como uma opção para o futuro. Discussão: Segundo os médicos inquiridos, a crise trouxe mudanças importantes nas suas condições de trabalho e no mercado dos serviços médicos. Conclusão: À redução salarial e às piores condições de trabalho, correspondeu uma resposta baseada na motivação intrínseca da profissão.

[Scientific Research Policy for Health in Portugal: II - Facts and Suggestions]. / Política de Investigação Científica para a Saúde em Portugal: II ­ Factos e Sugestões.

After more than 40 years of democracy and 30 years of European integration, Portugal has bridged the research gap it had previously. However, when compared to global and European research policies, Portugal still has a long way go regarding investment in research and development. Health Research in Portugal has been managed by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia and the National Health Institute Doctor Ricardo Jorge, and it has not been a political priority, emphasized by the absence of a national scientific research plan for health, resulting in a weak coordination of actors in the field. The strategic guidelines of the 2004 - 2010 National Health Plan are what comes closest to a health research policy, but these were not implemented by the institutions responsible for scientific research for the health sector. Trusting that adopting a strategy of incentives to stimulate health research is an added-value for the Portuguese health system, the authors present five strategic proposals for research in health in Portugal.

Tendo Portugal superado o atraso científico estrutural vivido até há cerca de três décadas, a análise desta matéria à luz das políticas de investigação definidas a nível global e europeu mostra que há ainda um longo caminho a percorrer quando se fala em investimento global em Investigação & Desenvolvimento. A investigação para a saúde em Portugal tem tido tutela partilhada entre a Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia e o Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge, sendo que esta matéria não tem sido uma prioridade - a realidade demonstra a não existência de um plano de investigação científica para a saúde em Portugal, o qual possa pôr em franca articulação os diferentes atores intervenientes. As orientações estratégias do Plano Nacional de Saúde 2004 - 2010 são as que mais se aproximam de uma política de investigação para a saúde para Portugal sem que, no entanto, as questões então abordadas tenham sido desenvolvidas de uma forma abrangente ou, à posteriori, implementadas pelas instituições que têm responsabilidades sobre a investigação científica no setor da saúde. Na convicção de que adoptar uma estratégia de incentivo à investigação para a saúde consiste uma mais-valia para o sistema de saúde português, os autores propõem neste trabalho cinco sugestões estratégicas em matérias de investigação para a saúde em Portugal.

Do prices reflect the costs of cardiac surgery in the elderly? / Serão preço e custo coincidentes na cirurgia cardíaca do idoso?

INTRODUCTION: Payment for cardiac surgery in Portugal is based on a contract agreement between hospitals and the health ministry. Our aim was to compare the prices paid according to this contract agreement with calculated costs in a population of patients aged ≥65 years undergoing cardiac surgery in one hospital department. METHODS: Data on 250 patients operated between September 2011 and September 2012 were prospectively collected. The procedures studied were coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) (n=67), valve surgery (n=156) and combined CABG and valve surgery (n=27). Costs were calculated by two methods: micro-costing when feasible and mean length of stay otherwise. Price information was provided by the hospital administration and calculated using the hospital's mean case-mix. RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality was 3.2%. Mean EuroSCORE I was 5.97 (standard deviation [SD] 4.5%), significantly lower for CABG (p<0.01). Mean intensive care unit stay was 3.27 days (SD 4.7) and mean hospital stay was 9.92 days (SD 6.30), both significantly shorter for CABG. Calculated costs for CABG were €6539.17 (SD 3990.26), for valve surgery €8289.72 (SD 3319.93) and for combined CABG and valve surgery €11 498.24 (SD 10 470.57). The payment for each patient was €4732.38 in 2011 and €4678.66 in 2012 based on the case-mix index of the hospital group, which was 2.06 in 2011 and 2.21 in 2012; however, the case-mix in our sample was 6.48 in 2011 and 6.26 in 2012. CONCLUSION: The price paid for each patient was lower than the calculated costs. Prices would be higher than costs if the case-mix of the sample had been used. Costs were significantly lower for CABG.

Pharmaceutical regulation in 15 European countries review.

In the context of pharmaceutical care, policy-makers repeatedly face the challenge of balancing patient access to effective medicines with affordability and rising costs. With the aim of guiding the health policy discourse towards questions that are important to actual and potential patients, this study investigates a broad range of regulatory measures, spanning marketing authorization to generic substitution and resulting price levels in a sample of 16 European health systems (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, England, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Spain and Sweden). All countries employ a mix of regulatory mechanisms to contain pharmaceutical expenditure and ensure quality and efficiency in pharmaceutical care, albeit with varying configurations and rigour. This variation also influences the extent of publicly financed pharmaceutical costs. Overall, observed differences in pharmaceutical expenditure should be interpreted in conjunction with the differing volume and composition of consumption and price levels, as well as dispensation practices and their impact on measurement of pharmaceutical costs. No definitive evidence has yet been produced on the effects of different cost-containment measures on patient outcomes. Depending on the foremost policy concerns in each country, different levers will have to be used to enable the delivery of appropriate care at affordable prices.

Informe sobre el control del tabaquismo en los países ibero-latino-americanos / Report on the control of smoking in ibero-latin-american countries

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