Return on investment of Canadian tobacco control policies implemented between 2001 and 2016.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the return on investment (ROI) associated with tobacco control policies implemented between 2001 and 2016 in Canada. METHODS: Canadian expenditures on tobacco policies were collected from government sources. The economic benefits considered in our analyses (decrease in healthcare costs, productivity costs and monetised life years lost, as well as tax revenues) were based on the changes in smoking prevalence and attributable deaths derived from the SimSmoke simulation model for the period 2001-2016. The net economic benefit (monetised benefits minus expenditures) and ROI associated with these policies were determined from the government and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to check the robustness of the result. Costs were expressed in 2019 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: The total of provincial and federal expenditures associated with the implementation of tobacco control policies in Canada from 2001 through 2016 was estimated at $2.4 billion. Total economic benefits from these policies during that time were calculated at $49.2 billion from the government perspective and at $54.2 billion from the societal perspective. The corresponding ROIs were $19.8 and $21.9 for every dollar invested. Sensitivity analyses yielded ROI values ranging from $16.3 to $28.3 for every dollar invested depending on the analyses and perspective. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis has found that the costs to implement the Canadian tobacco policies between 2001 and 2016 were far outweighed by the monetised value associated with the benefits of these policies, making a powerful case for the investment in tobacco control policies.

Correlates of wanting to seek help for mental health and substance use concerns by sexual and gender minority young adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: A machine learning analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the mental health and substance use challenges among many people who are Two Spirit, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, questioning, and intersex (2SLGBTQI+). We aimed to identify the important correlates and their effects on the predicted likelihood of wanting to seek help among 2SLGBTQI+ young adults for mental health or substance use concerns during the pandemic. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2020-2021 among 2SLGBTQI+ young adults aged 16-29 living in two Canadian provinces (Ontario and Quebec). Among 1414 participants, 77% (n = 1089) wanted to seek help for their mental health or substance use concerns during the pandemic, out of these, 69.8% (n = 760) reported delay in accessing care. We built a random forest (RF) model to predict the status of wanting to seek help, which achieved moderately high performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.85. The top 10 correlates of wanting to seek help were worsening mental health, age, stigma and discrimination, and adverse childhood experiences. The interactions of adequate housing with certain sexual orientations, gender identities and mental health challenges were found to increase the likelihood of wanting to seek help. We built another RF model for predicting risk of delay in accessing care among participants who wanted to seek help (n = 1089). The model identified a similar set of top 10 correlates of delay in accessing care but lacked adequate performance (AUC 0.61). These findings can direct future research and targeted prevention measures to reduce health disparities for 2SLGBTQI+ young adults.

Correlates of past year suicidal thoughts among sexual and gender minority young adults: A machine learning analysis.

Sexual and gender minority populations are at elevated risk of experiencing suicidal thoughts and attempting suicide. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated mental health and substance use challenges among this population. We aimed to examine the relative importance and effects of intersectional factors and strong interactions associated with the risk of suicidal thoughts among Canadian lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, questioning, intersex and Two Spirit (LGBTQI2S+) young adults. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among LGBTQI2S + participants aged 16-29 years living in two Canadian provinces (Ontario, Quebec). Among 1414 participants (mean age 21.90 years), 61% (n = 857) participants reported suicidal thoughts in last 12 months. We built a random forest model to predict the risk of having past year suicidal thoughts, which achieved high performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.84. The top 10 correlates identified were: seeking help from health professionals for mental health or substance use issues since the start of the pandemic, current self-rated mental health status, insulted by parents or adults in childhood, ever heard that being identifying as LGBTQI2S+ is not normal, age in years, past week feeling depressed, lifetime diagnosis of mental illness, lifetime diagnosis of depressive disorder, past week feeling sad, ever pretended to be straight or cisgender to be accepted. The increase in the risk of suicidal thoughts for those having mental health challenges or facing minority stressors is more pronounced in those living in urban areas or being unemployed than those living in rural areas or being employed.

Changes in retail tobacco promotions in a cohort of stores before, during, and after a tobacco product display ban.

We used a longitudinal design to investigate the impact of a government policy banning the display of tobacco products at the point of sale. The extent of tobacco promotions in 481 randomly selected stores was documented at 4 points in time (2005-2009). Tobacco promotions were greatly reduced after implementation of the display ban. A ban on the display of tobacco products and other signage and promotions at retail is a critical tobacco-control policy to reduce people's exposure to tobacco marketing.

Lottery promotions at the point-of-sale in Ontario, Canada.

We documented the extent of point-of-sale (POS) lottery promotions in Ontario, Canada and the relationship between lottery promotions and store and city characteristics. This is the first quantitative study of POS lottery promotions. A total of 366 stores-independent and chain convenience stores, gas stations and grocery stores-were visited across 20 cities in Ontario. Data collectors unobtrusively observed the type of lottery promotions in each store and completed a data collection checklist. A lottery promotion index was created and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) was conducted to examine the relationship between extent of lottery promotions and independent variables such as neighbourhood socioeconomic status and city prevalence of lottery ticket purchasing. POS lottery promotions were widespread across Ontario, with the highest level of promotion found in independent convenience stores. In the multivariable HLM model, none of the remaining independent variables remained statistically significant, except for store type. Lottery promotions are extensive at the POS in Ontario. These findings can help initiate discussions around the appropriateness and possible future regulation of this form of advertising.

Taking stock a bibliometric analysis of the focus of tobacco research from the 1980s to the 2000s.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the body of tobacco research as a whole. PURPOSE: This paper examines the changes in literature focus (1980s to 2000s) and identifies areas in need of increased attention. METHODS: Tobacco articles randomly selected from searches of the MEDLINE and Web of Science databases were coded according to (1) epidemiologic framework component; (2) study focus; and (3) form of tobacco. Frequencies, cross-tabulations, and tests of proportions were conducted. The analysis was conducted in 2009. RESULTS: From the 1980s to the 2000s, there was a significant decrease in tobacco-related articles focusing on the "agent" and an increase in articles focusing on the "host." Few articles in either decade focused on the "environment" or on the "vector" (<10%). The percentage of study foci addressing health effects decreased, whereas prevalence/use and cessation foci increased. Approximately two thirds of articles focused on the cigarette. CONCLUSIONS: The nature of tobacco research has shifted from examining the links between cigarettes and disease to understanding why people smoke and how to help them quit. Proportionately more research could focus on the environment and vector components of the epidemiologic framework, to expand strategies for reducing tobacco-related disease.

Tobacco promotions at point-of-sale: the last hurrah.

OBJECTIVES: The retail environment provides important opportunities for tobacco industry communication with current, former, and potential smokers. This study documented the extent of tobacco promotions at the retail point-of-sale and examined associations between the extent of tobacco promotions and relevant city and store characteristics. METHODS: In each of 20 Ontario cities, 24 establishments were randomly selected from lists of convenience stores, gas stations, and grocery stores. Trained observers captured the range, type and intensity of tobacco promotions from April to July 2005. The extent of tobacco promotions was described using weighted descriptive statistics. Weighted t-tests and ANOVAs, and hierarchical linear modeling, were used to examine the relationships between tobacco promotions and city and store characteristics. RESULTS: Extensive tobacco promotions were found in Ontario stores one year prior to the implementation of a partial ban on retail displays, particularly in chain convenience stores, gas station convenience stores and independent convenience stores. The multivariate hierarchical linear model confirmed differences in the extent of tobacco promotions by store type (p < 0.01); in addition, tobacco promotions were found to be higher among stores close to a school (p = 0.01) and in neighbourhoods with lower median household incomes (p < 0.01). Independent convenience stores with a greater number of employees had more tobacco promotions; however, the relationship was reversed for grocery stores. DISCUSSION: Tobacco promotions were extensive at the point-of-sale. Public health messages about the harms of tobacco use may be compromised by the pervasiveness of these promotions.