Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data-poor island ecosystem.

Data hungry, complex ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of threatened species management, including perverse outcomes. Unfortunately, this approach is impractical in many systems, which have insufficient data to parameterize ecosystem interactions or reliably calibrate or validate such models. Here we demonstrate a different approach, using a minimum realistic model to guide decisions in data- and resource-scarce systems. We illustrate our approach with a case-study in an invaded ecosystem from Christmas Island, Australia, where there are concerns that cat eradication to protect native species, including the red-tailed tropicbird, could release meso-predation by invasive rats. We use biophysical constraints (metabolic demand) and observable parameters (e.g. prey preferences) to assess the combined cat and rat abundances which would threaten the tropicbird population. We find that the population of tropicbirds cannot be sustained if predated by 1607 rats (95% credible interval (CI) [103, 5910]) in the absence of cats, or 21 cats (95% CI [2, 82]) in the absence of rats. For every cat removed from the island, the bird's net population growth rate improves, provided that the rats do not increase by more than 77 individuals (95% CI [30, 174]). Thus, in this context, one cat is equivalent to 30-174 rats. Our methods are especially useful for on-the-ground predator control in the absence of knowledge of predator-predator interactions, to assess whether 1) the current abundance of predators threatens the prey population of interest, 2) managing one predator species alone is sufficient to protect the prey species given potential release of another predator, and 3) control of multiple predator species is needed to meet the conservation goal. Our approach demonstrates how to use limited information for maximum value in data-poor systems, by shifting the focus from predicting future trajectories, to identifying conditions which threaten the conservation goal. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Indigenous plants promote insect biodiversity in urban greenspaces.

The contribution of urban greenspaces to support biodiversity and provide benefits for people is increasingly recognized. However, ongoing management practices favor vegetation oversimplification, often limiting greenspaces to lawns and tree canopy rather than multi-layered vegetation that includes under- and midstorey, and the use of nonnative species. These practices hinder the potential of greenspaces to sustain indigenous biodiversity, particularly for taxa like insects that rely on plants for food and habitat. Yet, little is known about which plant species may maximize positive outcomes for taxonomically and functionally diverse insect communities in greenspaces. Additionally, while cities are expected to experience high rates of introductions, quantitative assessments of the relative occupancy of indigenous vs. introduced insect species in greenspace are rare, hindering understanding of how management may promote indigenous biodiversity while limiting the establishment of introduced insects. Using a hierarchically replicated study design across 15 public parks, we recorded occurrence data from 552 insect species on 133 plant species, differing in planting design element (lawn, midstorey, and tree canopy), midstorey growth form (forbs, lilioids, graminoids, and shrubs) and origin (nonnative, native, and indigenous), to assess (1) the relative contributions of indigenous and introduced insect species and (2) which plant species sustained the highest number of indigenous insects. We found that the insect community was overwhelmingly composed of indigenous rather than introduced species. Our findings further highlight the core role of multi-layered vegetation in sustaining high insect biodiversity in urban areas, with indigenous midstorey and canopy representing key elements to maintain rich and functionally diverse indigenous insect communities. Intriguingly, graminoids supported the highest indigenous insect richness across all studied growth forms by plant origin groups. Our work highlights the opportunity presented by indigenous understory and midstorey plants, particularly indigenous graminoids, in our study area to promote indigenous insect biodiversity in urban greenspaces. Our study provides a blueprint and stimulus for architects, engineers, developers, designers, and planners to incorporate into their practice plant species palettes that foster a larger presence of indigenous over regionally native or nonnative plant species, while incorporating a broader mixture of midstorey growth forms.

Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time-series data.

Well-intentioned environmental management can backfire, causing unforeseen damage. To avoid this, managers and ecologists seek accurate predictions of the ecosystem-wide impacts of interventions, given small and imprecise datasets, which is an incredibly difficult task. We generated and analysed thousands of ecosystem population time series to investigate whether fitted models can aid decision-makers to select interventions. Using these time-series data (sparse and noisy datasets drawn from deterministic Lotka-Volterra systems with two to nine species, of known network structure), dynamic model forecasts of whether a species' future population will be positively or negatively affected by rapid eradication of another species were correct > 70% of the time. Although 70% correct classifications is only slightly better than an uninformative prediction (50%), this classification accuracy can be feasibly improved by increasing monitoring accuracy and frequency. Our findings suggest that models may not need to produce well-constrained predictions before they can inform decisions that improve environmental outcomes.

A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem-wide impacts of reintroductions.

Reintroducing a species to an ecosystem can have significant impacts on the recipient ecological community. Although reintroductions can have striking and positive outcomes, they also carry risks; many well-intentioned conservation actions have had surprising and unsatisfactory outcomes. A range of network-based mathematical methods has been developed to make quantitative predictions of how communities will respond to management interventions. These methods are based on the limited knowledge of which species interact with each other and in what way. However, expert knowledge isn't perfect and can only take models so far. Fortunately, other types of data, such as abundance time series, is often available, but, to date, no quantitative method exists to integrate these various data types into these models, allowing more precise ecosystem-wide predictions. In this paper, we develop mathematical methods that combine time-series data of multiple species with knowledge of species interactions and we apply it to proposed reintroductions at Booderee National Park in Australia. There have been large fluctuations in species abundances at Booderee National Park in recent history, following intense feral fox (Vulpes vulpes) control, including the local extinction of the greater glider (Petauroides volans). These fluctuations can provide information about the system isn't readily obtained from a stable system, and we use them to inform models that we then use to predict potential outcomes of eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) and long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) reintroductions. One of the key species of conservation concern in the park is the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus), and we find that long-nosed potoroo introduction would have very little impact on the Eastern Bristlebird population, while the eastern quoll introduction increased the likelihood of Eastern Bristlebird decline, although that depends on the strength and form of any possible interaction.

Identifying species at coextinction risk when detection is imperfect: Model evaluation and case study.

Losing a species from a community can cause further extinctions, a process also known as coextinction. The risk of being extirpated with an interaction partner is commonly inferred from a species' host-breadth, derived from observing interactions between species. But observational data suffers from imperfect detection, making coextinction estimates highly unreliable. To address this issue and to account for data uncertainty, we fit a hierarchical N-mixture model to individual-level interaction data from a mutualistic network. We predict (1) with how many interaction partners each species interacts (to indicate their coextinction risk) and (2) how completely the community was sampled. We fit the model to simulated interactions to investigate how variation in sampling effort, interaction probability, and animal abundances influence model accuracy and apply it to an empirical dataset of flowering plants and their insect visitors. The model performed well in predicting the number of interaction partners for scenarios with high abundances, but indicated high parameter uncertainty for networks with many rare species. Yet, model predictions were generally closer to the true value than the observations. Our mutualistic plant-insect community most closely resembled the scenario of high interaction rates with low abundances. Median estimates of interaction partners were frequently much higher than the empirical data indicate, but uncertainty was high. Our analysis suggested that we only detected 14-59% of the flower-visiting insect species, indicating that our study design, which is common for pollinator studies, was inadequate to detect many species. Imperfect detection strongly affects the inferences from observed interaction networks and hence, host specificity, specialisation estimates and network metrics from observational data may be highly misleading for assessing a species' coextinction risks. Our study shows how models can help to estimate coextinction risk, but also indicates the need for better data (i.e., intensified sampling and individual-level observations) to reduce uncertainty.

Uncertain links in host-parasite networks: lessons for parasite transmission in a multi-host system.

For many parasites, the full set of hosts that are susceptible to infection is not known, and this could lead to a bias in estimates of transmission. We used counts of individual adult parasites from historical parasitology studies in southern Africa to map a bipartite network of the nematode parasites of herbivore hosts that occur in Botswana. Bipartite networks are used in community ecology to represent interactions across trophic levels. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to predict the full set of host-parasite interactions from existing data on parasitic gastrointestinal nematodes of wild and domestic ungulates given assumptions about the distribution of parasite counts within hosts, while accounting for the relative uncertainty of less sampled species. We used network metrics to assess the difference between the observed and predicted networks, and to explore the connections between hosts via their shared parasites using a host-host unipartite network projected from the bipartite network. The model predicts a large number of missing links and identifies red hartebeest, giraffe and steenbok as the hosts that have the most uncertainty in parasite diversity. Further, the unipartite network reveals clusters of herbivores that have a high degree of parasite sharing, and these clusters correspond closely with phylogenetic distance rather than with the wild/domestic boundary. These results provide a basis for predicting the risk of cross-species transmission of nematode parasites in areas where livestock and wildlife share grazing land.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.

Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change.

Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks.

Translocation strategies for multiple species depend on interspecific interaction type.

Conservation translocations, anthropogenic movements of species to prevent their extinction, have increased substantially over the last few decades. Although multiple species are frequently moved to the same location, current translocation guidelines consider species in isolation. This practice ignores important interspecific interactions and thereby risks translocation failure. We model three different two-species systems to illustrate the inherent complexity of multispecies translocations and to assess the influence of different interaction types (consumer-resource, mutualism, and competition) on translocation strategies. We focus on how these different interaction types influence the optimal founder population sizes for successful translocations and the order in which the species are moved (simultaneous or sequential). Further, we assess the effect of interaction strength in simultaneous translocations and the time delay between translocations when moving two species sequentially. Our results show that translocation decisions need to reflect the type of interaction. While all translocations of interacting species require a minimum founder population size, which is demarked by an extinction boundary, consumer-resource translocations also have a maximum founder population limit. Above the minimum founder size, increasing the number of translocated individuals leads to a substantial increase in the extinction boundary of competitors and consumers, but not of mutualists. Competitive and consumer-resource systems benefit from sequential translocations, but the order of translocations does not change the outcomes for mutualistic interaction partners noticeably. Interspecific interactions are important processes that shape population dynamics and should therefore be incorporated into the quantitative planning of multispecies translocations. Our findings apply whenever interacting species are moved, for example, in reintroductions, conservation introductions, biological control, or ecosystem restoration.

Ecological, historical and evolutionary determinants of modularity in weighted seed-dispersal networks.

Modularity is a recurrent and important property of bipartite ecological networks. Although well-resolved ecological networks describe interaction frequencies between species pairs, modularity of bipartite networks has been analysed only on the basis of binary presence-absence data. We employ a new algorithm to detect modularity in weighted bipartite networks in a global analysis of avian seed-dispersal networks. We define roles of species, such as connector values, for weighted and binary networks and associate them with avian species traits and phylogeny. The weighted, but not binary, analysis identified a positive relationship between climatic seasonality and modularity, whereas past climate stability and phylogenetic signal were only weakly related to modularity. Connector values were associated with foraging behaviour and were phylogenetically conserved. The weighted modularity analysis demonstrates the dominating impact of ecological factors on the structure of seed-dispersal networks, but also underscores the relevance of evolutionary history in shaping species roles in ecological communities.

Constant properties of plant-frugivore networks despite fluctuations in fruit and bird communities in space and time.

Human-induced changes in anthropogenic landscapes are a predominant threat to biodiversity and have been documented to affect mutualistic interactions between plants and animals, such as avian seed dispersal. Interactions between fleshy-fruited plants and frugivorous birds are highly seasonal in temperate ecosystems. Nevertheless, combined effects of landscape modification and seasonal variation on plant-frugivore interactions have never been assessed from a network perspective. Here, we present the first study that simultaneously investigates effects of landscape modification and seasonal variation on plant-frugivore interactions and on functional and interaction diversity of plant-frugivore networks. We recorded visitation rates of 39 frugivorous bird species to 28 fruiting-plant species in Central Germany from early summer to late autumn in hedgerows within three landscape types arranged along a gradient of decreasing anthropogenic modification and increasing structural diversity (i.e., farmland, orchard, forest edge). We analyzed how species richness, abundance, and community composition, as well as functional and interaction diversity of fruiting plants and frugivorous birds changed with landscape type, fruit availability, and season. We found that visitation rates of frugivorous birds were lower in farmland, but only in summer. In autumn, visitation rates were similar in all landscape types and strongly increased with increasing local fruit availability. The functional diversity of fruits and frugivorous birds and their interaction diversity remained surprisingly constant in all landscape types. Due to seasonal changes in communities of fruiting plants and frugivorous birds, functional dispersion of fruiting plants was lower in autumn than in summer, whereas functional richness and dispersion of frugivorous birds was higher in autumn than in summer. Our results indicate that seasonal changes in fruit availability influence the abundance of frugivorous birds along gradients of structural diversity at the landscape scale. Although seasonal fluctuations influenced the functional diversity of avian frugivore communities, we found constant interaction diversity of plant-frugivore networks in space and time, probably due to the functional redundancy of frugivorous birds. These findings indicate a high robustness of avian frugivory to moderate levels of human-induced landscape modification in temperate ecosystems and call for studies testing the generality of these findings for ultimate avian seed dispersal functions.