Risk of African swine fever virus transmission among wild boar and domestic pigs in Poland.

Introduction: African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable disease of swine that impacts global pork trade and food security. In several countries across the globe, the disease persists in wild boar (WB) populations sympatric to domestic pig (DP) operations, with continued detections in both sectors. While there is evidence of spillover and spillback between the sectors, the frequency of occurrence and relative importance of different risk factors for transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface remain unclear. Methods: To address this gap, we leveraged ASF surveillance data from WB and DP across Eastern Poland from 2014-2019 in an analysis that quantified the relative importance of different risk factors for explaining variation in each of the ASF surveillance data from WB and DP. Results: ASF prevalence exhibited different seasonal trends across the sectors: apparent prevalence was much higher in summer (84% of detections) in DP, but more consistent throughout the year in WB (highest in winter with 45%, lowest in summer at 15%). Only 21.8% of DP-positive surveillance data included surveillance in WB nearby (within 5 km of the grid cell within the last 4 weeks), while 41.9% of WB-positive surveillance samples included any DP surveillance samples nearby. Thus, the surveillance design afforded twice as much opportunity to find DP-positive samples in the recent vicinity of WB-positive samples compared to the opposite, yet the rate of positive WB samples in the recent vicinity of a positive DP sample was 48 times as likely than the rate of positive DP samples in the recent vicinity of a positive WB sample. Our machine learning analyses found that positive samples in WB were predicted by WB-related risk factors, but not to DP-related risk factors. In contrast, WB risk factors were important for predicting detections in DP on a few spatial and temporal scales of data aggregation. Discussion: Our results highlight that spillover from WB to DP might be more frequent than the reverse, but that the structure of current surveillance systems challenge quantification of spillover frequency and risk factors. Our results emphasize the importance of, and provide guidance for, improving cross-sector surveillance designs.

Demography and evolutionary history of grey wolf populations around the Bering Strait.

Glacial and interglacial periods throughout the Pleistocene have been substantial drivers of change in species distributions. Earlier analyses suggested that modern grey wolves (Canis lupus) trace their origin to a single Late Pleistocene Beringian population that expanded east and westwards, starting c. 25,000 years ago (ya). Here, we examined the demographic and phylogeographic histories of extant populations around the Bering Strait with wolves from two inland regions of the Russian Far East (RFE) and one coastal and two inland regions of North-western North America (NNA), genotyped for 91,327 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Our results indicated that RFE and NNA wolves had a common ancestry until c. 34,400 ya, suggesting that these populations started to diverge before the previously proposed expansion out of Beringia. Coastal and inland NNA populations diverged c. 16,000 ya, concordant with the minimum proposed date for the ecological viability of the migration route along the Pacific Northwest coast. Demographic reconstructions for inland RFE and NNA populations reveal spatial and temporal synchrony, with large historical effective population sizes that declined throughout the Pleistocene, possibly reflecting the influence of broadscale climatic changes across continents. In contrast, coastal NNA wolves displayed a consistently lower effective population size than the inland populations. Differences between the demographic history of inland and coastal wolves may have been driven by multiple ecological factors, including historical gene flow patterns, natural landscape fragmentation, and more recent anthropogenic disturbance.

Pan-European phylogeography of the European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus).

To provide the most comprehensive picture of species phylogeny and phylogeography of European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), we analyzed mtDNA control region (610 bp) of 1469 samples of roe deer from Central and Eastern Europe and included into the analyses additional 1541 mtDNA sequences from GenBank from other regions of the continent. We detected two mtDNA lineages of the species: European and Siberian (an introgression of C. pygargus mtDNA into C. capreolus). The Siberian lineage was most frequent in the eastern part of the continent and declined toward Central Europe. The European lineage contained three clades (Central, Eastern, and Western) composed of several haplogroups, many of which were separated in space. The Western clade appeared to have a discontinuous range from Portugal to Russia. Most of the haplogroups in the Central and the Eastern clades were under expansion during the Weichselian glacial period before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), while the expansion time of the Western clade overlapped with the Eemian interglacial. The high genetic diversity of extant roe deer is the result of their survival during the LGM probably in a large, contiguous range spanning from the Iberian Peninsula to the Caucasus Mts and in two northern refugia.

Weak population structure in European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and evidence of introgressive hybridization with Siberian roe deer (C. pygargus) in northeastern Poland.

We investigated contemporary and historical influences on the pattern of genetic diversity of European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). The study was conducted in northeastern Poland, a zone where vast areas of primeval forests are conserved and where the European roe deer was never driven to extinction. A total of 319 unique samples collected in three sampling areas were genotyped at 16 microsatellites and one fragment (610 bp) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region. Genetic diversity was high, and a low degree of genetic differentiation among sampling areas was observed with both microsatellites and mtDNA. No evidence of genetic differentiation between roe deer inhabiting open fields and forested areas was found, indicating that the ability of the species to exploit these contrasting environments might be the result of its phenotypic plasticity. Half of the studied individuals carried an mtDNA haplotype that did not belong to C. capreolus, but to a related species that does not occur naturally in the area, the Siberian roe deer (C. pygargus). No differentiation between individuals with Siberian and European mtDNA haplotypes was detected at microsatellite loci. Introgression of mtDNA of Siberian roe deer into the genome of European roe deer has recently been detected in eastern Europe. Such introgression might be caused by human-mediated translocations of Siberian roe deer within the range of European roe deer or by natural hybridization between these species in the past.