Age differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments.

Age differences in accuracy were investigated by having older (M = 68.6 years) and younger (M = 21.5 years) adults make confidence judgments about the correctness of their responses to two sets of general knowledge items. For one set, prior to making their confidence judgments, subjects made mental strategy judgements indicating how they had selected their answers (i.e., they guessed, used intuition, made an inference, or immediately recognized the response as correct). Results indicate that older subjects were more accurate than younger subjects in predicting the correctness of their responses; however, making mental strategy judgments did not result in increased accuracy for either age group. Additional analyses explored the relationship between accuracy and other individual difference variables. The results of this investigation are consistent with recent theories of postformal cognitive development that suggest older adults have greater insight into the limitations of their knowledge.

Judging event covariation: effects of age and memory demand.

In this study, we investigated age differences in the accuracy of covariation judgement. Young and older adults were asked to solve covariation problems under low or high memory demand conditions. For each problem, subjects saw a sequential presentation of the event-state combination in a 2 X 2 contingency table. Subjects either kept a running tally of the frequencies of occurrence of each combination and used these tallies to make their covariation judgement for the events (Low Memory Demand), or they recalled the frequencies from memory, and then made their judgement (High Memory Demand). Solution patterns across the problems indicated which of four judgement strategies (i.e., Cell A, A vs B, Sum of Diagonals, or Conditional Probability) the subject preferred. The results showed that older adults were generally less accurate than young adults in judging event covariation. Additional findings suggested that this difference might be due to an age-related decline in memory for the frequency of event combinations and to older adults' use of simpler, less accurate judgement strategies.

Aging and illusory correlation in judgments of co-occurrence.

This study examined the influence of aging on illusory correlation in judgments of co-occurrence. Older and younger Ss judged the probability of co-occurrence for events associated with preexisting expectancies after receiving nonsalient or salient information about the true probabilities of co-occurrence of the events. Results showed that when current information on event co-occurrence was not salient, preexisting expectancies strongly influenced the judgments of both younger and older Ss. However, when this information was salient, younger Ss' judgments reflected more accurate adjustment to the probabilistic relationships in the information than did older Ss' judgments. This age difference may be related to changes in memory processes that accompany increasing age and to differences in judgment processes necessitated by these changes.