Direct and Indirect Costs of Breast Cancer and Associated Implications: A Systematic Review.

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer is currently the leading cause of global cancer incidence. Breast cancer has negative consequences for society and economies internationally due to the high burden of disease which includes adverse epidemiological and economic implications. Our aim is to systematically review the estimated economic burden of breast cancer in the United States (US), Canada, Australia, and Western Europe (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, and Switzerland), with an objective of discussing the policy and practice implications of our results. METHODS: We included English-language published studies with cost as a focal point using a primary data source to inform resource usage of women with breast cancer. We focussed on studies published since 2017, but with reported costs since 2012. A systematic search conducted on 25 January 2023 identified studies relating to the economic burden of breast cancer in the countries of interest. MEDLINE, Embase, and EconLit databases were searched via Ovid. Study quality was assessed based on three aspects: (1) validity of cost findings; (2) completeness of direct cost findings; and (3) completeness of indirect cost findings. We grouped costs based on country, cancer stage (early compared to metastatic), and four resource categories: healthcare/medical, pharmaceutical drugs, diagnosis, and indirect costs. Costs were standardized to the year 2022 in US (US$2022) and International (Int$2022) dollars. RESULTS: Fifty-three studies were included. Studies in the US (n = 19) and Canada (n = 9) were the majority (53%), followed by Western European countries (42%). Healthcare/medical costs were the focus for the majority (89%), followed by pharmaceutical drugs (25%), then diagnosis (17%) and indirect (17%) costs. Thirty-six (68%) included early-stage cancer costs, 17 (32%) included metastatic cancer costs, with 23% reporting costs across these cancer stages. No identified study explicitly compared costs across countries. Across cost categories, cost ranges tended to be higher in the US than any other country. Metastatic breast cancer was associated with higher costs than earlier-stage cancer. When indirect costs were accounted for, particularly in terms of productivity loss, they tended to be higher than any other estimated direct cost (e.g., diagnosis, drug, and other medical costs). CONCLUSION: There was substantial heterogeneity both within and across countries for the identified studies' designs and estimated costs. Despite this, current empirical literature suggests that costs associated with early initiation of treatment could be offset against potentially avoiding or reducing the overall economic burden of later-stage and more severe breast cancer. Larger scale, national, economic burden studies are needed, to be updated regularly to ensure there is an ongoing and evolving perspective of the economic burden of conditions such as breast cancer to inform policy and practice.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of two interventions to promote physical activity in a multiethnic population at high risk of diabetes: an economic evaluation of the 48-month PROPELS randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Physical activity (PA) is protective against type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, data on pragmatic long-term interventions to reduce the risk of developing T2D via increased PA are lacking. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of a pragmatic PA intervention in a multiethnic population at high risk of T2D. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We adapted the School for Public Health Research diabetes prevention model, using the PROPELS trial data and analyses of the NAVIGATOR trial. Lifetime costs, lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each intervention (Walking Away (WA) and Walking Away Plus (WA+)) versus usual care and compared with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's willingness-to-pay of £20 000-£30 000 per QALY gained. We conducted scenario analyses on the outcomes of the PROPELS trial data and a threshold analysis to determine the change in step count that would be needed for the interventions to be cost-effective. RESULTS: Estimated lifetime costs for usual care, WA, and WA+ were £22 598, £23 018, and £22 945, respectively. Estimated QALYs were 9.323, 9.312, and 9.330, respectively. WA+ was estimated to be more effective and cheaper than WA. WA+ had an ICER of £49 273 per QALY gained versus usual care. In none of our scenario analyses did either WA or WA+ have an ICER below £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis suggested that a PA intervention costing the same as WA+ would have an ICER below £20 000/QALY if it were to achieve an increase in step count of 500 steps per day which was 100% maintained at 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: We found that neither WA nor WA+ was cost-effective at a limit of £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis showed that interventions to increase step count can be cost-effective at this limit if they achieve greater long-term maintenance of effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN registration: ISRCTN83465245: The PRomotion Of Physical activity through structuredEducation with differing Levels of ongoing Support for those with pre-diabetes (PROPELS)https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN83465245.

Diversification of small RNA pathways underlies germline RNA interference incompetence in wild Caenorhabditis elegans strains.

The discovery that experimental delivery of dsRNA can induce gene silencing at target genes revolutionized genetics research, by both uncovering essential biological processes and creating new tools for developmental geneticists. However, the efficacy of exogenous RNA interference (RNAi) varies dramatically within the Caenorhabditis elegans natural population, raising questions about our understanding of RNAi in the lab relative to its activity and significance in nature. Here, we investigate why some wild strains fail to mount a robust RNAi response to germline targets. We observe diversity in mechanism: in some strains, the response is stochastic, either on or off among individuals, while in others, the response is consistent but delayed. Increased activity of the Argonaute PPW-1, which is required for germline RNAi in the laboratory strain N2, rescues the response in some strains but dampens it further in others. Among wild strains, genes known to mediate RNAi exhibited very high expression variation relative to other genes in the genome as well as allelic divergence and strain-specific instances of pseudogenization at the sequence level. Our results demonstrate functional diversification in the small RNA pathways in C. elegans and suggest that RNAi processes are evolving rapidly and dynamically in nature.

Estimation of HbA1c after weight loss using a beta-regression for an economic evaluation of a behavioural weight management programme from the GLoW trial: a methodological study.

BACKGROUND: In economic evaluations, average intervention effects are usually applied to a population. However, this fails to reflect the change in the distribution of HbA1c due to heterogeneous responses to weight loss. We aimed to investigate whether allowing heterogeneous treatment effects using a beta regression better represented the distribution of HbA1c after a weight-loss intervention, and how this affected cost effectiveness. METHODS: The Glucose Lowering through Weight Management (GLoW) trial evaluated the effectiveness of a diabetes education and weight-loss intervention against a standard diabetes education programme. Adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes within 3 years were recruited from Clinical Commissioning Groups across 159 sites in England from July 20, 2018, to July 22, 2018. Ethics approval (18/ES/0048) and participant informed consent were obtained. Considering the between-treatment-arm difference in HbA1c after 12 months, we compared a mean-effect estimated from a mixed-effects regression to a heterogeneous effect estimated from a beta regression performed on 12-month HbA1c conditional on baseline HbA1c, gender, diabetes duration and intervention group. We used the School of Public Health Research (SPHR) Diabetes Treatment model to apply these treatment effects and evaluate the lifetime NHS costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3·5%. The microsimulation model estimated diabetes-related health outcomes using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 risk equations and risk factor trajectory equations, alongside estimating diabetes remission, osteoarthritis, and cancer. We calculated the incremental net benefit (INB) of the intervention using a £20 000 per QALY valuation, by deterministic analysis. The GLoW trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN18399564. FINDINGS: The trial recruited 577 participants (mean age 60 years; 278 [53%] female, 247 [47%] male; 474 [91%] white ethnic background). Applying heterogeneous HbA1c changes better reproduced the skewness in post-intervention HbA1c than applying a mean-effect (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p=0·02 compared with p=0·0000007). The beta-regression method suggested the intervention was more cost-effective, estimating an INB of £736 per person, compared with £584 when applying the mean-effect. INTERPRETATION: Alternative regression specification methods should be considered when evaluating the cost-effectiveness of interventions if the key intervention outcomes are not normally distributed. However, this alternative method requires further investigation to conclude its appropriateness in evaluating cost-effectiveness in different contexts. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Reference Number RP-PG0216-20010).

Natural variation in codon bias and mRNA folding strength interact synergistically to modify protein expression in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

Codon bias and mRNA folding strength (mF) are hypothesized molecular mechanisms by which polymorphisms in genes modify protein expression. Natural patterns of codon bias and mF across genes as well as effects of altering codon bias and mF suggest that the influence of these 2 mechanisms may vary depending on the specific location of polymorphisms within a transcript. Despite the central role codon bias and mF may play in natural trait variation within populations, systematic studies of how polymorphic codon bias and mF relate to protein expression variation are lacking. To address this need, we analyzed genomic, transcriptomic, and proteomic data for 22 Saccharomyces cerevisiae isolates, estimated protein accumulation for each allele of 1,620 genes as the log of protein molecules per RNA molecule (logPPR), and built linear mixed-effects models associating allelic variation in codon bias and mF with allelic variation in logPPR. We found that codon bias and mF interact synergistically in a positive association with logPPR, and this interaction explains almost all the effects of codon bias and mF. We examined how the locations of polymorphisms within transcripts influence their effects and found that codon bias primarily acts through polymorphisms in domain-encoding and 3' coding sequences, while mF acts most significantly through coding sequences with weaker effects from untranslated regions. Our results present the most comprehensive characterization to date of how polymorphisms in transcripts influence protein expression.

Psychometric properties of an innovative smartphone application to investigate the daily impact of hypoglycemia in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes: The Hypo-METRICS app.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to determine the acceptability and psychometric properties of the Hypo-METRICS (Hypoglycemia MEasurement, ThResholds and ImpaCtS) application (app): a novel tool designed to assess the direct impact of symptomatic and asymptomatic hypoglycemia on daily functioning in people with insulin-treated diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 100 adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM, n = 64) or insulin-treated type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, n = 36) completed three daily 'check-ins' (morning, afternoon and evening) via the Hypo-METRICs app across 10 weeks, to respond to 29 unique questions about their subjective daily functioning. Questions addressed sleep quality, energy level, mood, affect, cognitive functioning, fear of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, social functioning, and work/productivity. Completion rates, structural validity, internal consistency, and test-retest reliability were explored. App responses were correlated with validated person-reported outcome measures to investigate convergent (rs>±0.3) and divergent (rs<±0.3) validity. RESULTS: Participants' mean±SD age was 54±16 years, diabetes duration was 23±13 years, and most recent HbA1c was 56.6±9.8 mmol/mol. Participants submitted mean±SD 191±16 out of 210 possible 'check-ins' (91%). Structural validity was confirmed with multi-level confirmatory factor analysis showing good model fit on the adjusted model (Comparative Fit Index >0.95, Root-Mean-Square Error of Approximation <0.06, Standardized Root-Mean-square Residual<0.08). Scales had satisfactory internal consistency (all ω≥0.5), and high test-retest reliability (rs≥0.7). Convergent and divergent validity were demonstrated for most scales. CONCLUSION: High completion rates and satisfactory psychometric properties demonstrated that the Hypo-METRICS app is acceptable to adults with T1DM and T2DM, and a reliable and valid tool to explore the daily impact of hypoglycemia.

Hypo-METRICS: Hypoglycaemia-MEasurement, ThResholds and ImpaCtS-A multi-country clinical study to define the optimal threshold and duration of sensor-detected hypoglycaemia that impact the experience of hypoglycaemia, quality of life and health economic outcomes: The study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Hypoglycaemia is a significant burden to people living with diabetes and an impediment to achieving optimal glycaemic outcomes. The use of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) has improved the capacity to assess duration and level of hypoglycaemia. The personal impact of sensor-detected hypoglycaemia (SDH) is unclear. Hypo-METRICS is an observational study designed to define the threshold and duration of sensor glucose that provides the optimal sensitivity and specificity for events that people living with diabetes experience as hypoglycaemia. METHODS: We will recruit 600 participants: 350 with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes, 200 with type 1 diabetes and awareness of hypoglycaemia and 50 with type 1 diabetes and impaired awareness of hypoglycaemia who have recent experience of hypoglycaemia. Participants will wear a blinded CGM device and an actigraphy monitor to differentiate awake and sleep times for 10 weeks. Participants will be asked to complete three short surveys each day using a bespoke mobile phone app, a technique known as ecological momentary assessment. Participants will also record all episodes of self-detected hypoglycaemia on the mobile app. We will use particle Markov chain Monte Carlo optimization to identify the optimal threshold and duration of SDH that have optimum sensitivity and specificity for detecting patient-reported hypoglycaemia. Key secondary objectives include measuring the impact of symptomatic and asymptomatic SDH on daily functioning and health economic outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol was approved by local ethical boards in all participating centres. Study results will be shared with participants, in peer-reviewed journal publications and conference presentations.

Investigating the day-to-day impact of hypoglycaemia in adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes: design and validation protocol of the Hypo-METRICS application.

INTRODUCTION: Hypoglycaemia is a frequent adverse event and major barrier for achieving optimal blood glucose levels in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes using insulin. The Hypo-RESOLVE (Hypoglycaemia-Redefining SOLutions for better liVEs) consortium aims to further our understanding of the day-to-day impact of hypoglycaemia. The Hypo-METRICS (Hypoglycaemia-MEasurement, ThResholds and ImpaCtS) application (app) is a novel app for smartphones. This app is developed as part of the Hypo-RESOLVE project, using ecological momentary assessment methods that will minimise recall bias and allow for robust investigation of the day-to-day impact of hypoglycaemia. In this paper, the development and planned psychometric analyses of the app are described. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The three phases of development of the Hypo-METRICS app are: (1) establish a working group-comprising diabetologists, psychologists and people with diabetes-to define the problem and identify relevant areas of daily functioning; (2) develop app items, with user-testing, and implement into the app platform; and (3) plan a large-scale, multicountry study including interviews with users and psychometric validation. The app includes 7 modules (29 unique items) assessing: self-report of hypoglycaemic episodes (during the day and night, respectively), sleep quality, well-being/cognitive function, social interactions, fear of hypoglycaemia/hyperglycaemia and work/productivity. The app is designed for use within three fixed time intervals per day (morning, afternoon and evening). The first version was released mid-2020 for use (in conjunction with continuous glucose monitoring and activity tracking) in the Hypo-METRICS study; an international observational longitudinal study. As part of this study, semistructured user-experience interviews and psychometric analyses will be conducted. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Use of the novel Hypo-METRICS app in a multicountry clinical study has received ethical approval in each of the five countries involved (Oxford B Research Ethics Committee, CMO Region Arnhem-Nijmegen, Ethikkommission der Medizinischen Universität Graz, Videnskabsetisk Komite for Region Hovedstaden and the Comite Die Protection Des Personnes SUD Mediterranne IV). The results from the study will be published in peer review journals and presented at national and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04304963.

An economic evaluation of triage tools for patients with suspected severe injuries in England.

BACKGROUND: Many health care systems triage injured patients to major trauma centres (MTCs) or local hospitals by using triage tools and paramedic judgement. Triage tools are typically assessed by whether patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16 go to an MTC and whether patients with an ISS < 16 are sent to their local hospital. There is a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity of triage tools, with the optimal balance being unknown. We conducted an economic evaluation of major trauma triage tools to identify which tool would be considered cost-effective by UK decision makers. METHODS: A patient-level, probabilistic, mathematical model of a UK major trauma system was developed. Patients with an ISS ≥ 16 who were only treated at local hospitals had worse outcomes compared to being treated in an MTC. Nine empirically derived triage tools, from a previous study, were examined so we assessed triage tools with realistic trade-offs between triage tool sensitivity and specificity. Lifetime costs, lifetime quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each tool and compared to maximum acceptable ICERs (MAICERs) in England. RESULTS: Four tools had ICERs within the normal range of MAICERs used by English decision makers (£20,000 to £30,000 per QALY gained). A low sensitivity (28.4%) and high specificity (88.6%) would be cost-effective at the lower end of this range while higher sensitivity (87.5%) and lower specificity (62.8%) was cost-effective towards the upper end of this range. These results were sensitive to the cost of MTC admissions and whether MTCs had a benefit for patients with an ISS between 9 and 15. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effective triage tool depends on the English decision maker's MAICER for this health problem. In the usual range of MAICERs, cost-effective prehospital trauma triage involves clinically suboptimal sensitivity, with a proportion of seriously injured patients (at least 10%) being initially transported to local hospitals. High sensitivity trauma triage requires development of more accurate decision rules; research to establish if patients with an ISS between 9 and 15 benefit from MTCs; or, inefficient use of health care resources to manage patients with less serious injuries at MTCs.

Exploring Structural Uncertainty and Impact of Health State Utility Values on Lifetime Outcomes in Diabetes Economic Simulation Models: Findings from the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Quality-of-Life Challenge.

BACKGROUND: Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models. METHODS: Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences. RESULTS: Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (-0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models (P = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions.HighlightsThe findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs).There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.

Promoting physical activity in a multi-ethnic population at high risk of diabetes: the 48-month PROPELS randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease but limited evidence exists for the sustained promotion of increased physical activity within diabetes prevention trials. The aim of the study was to investigate the long-term effectiveness of the Walking Away programme, an established group-based behavioural physical activity intervention with pedometer use, when delivered alone or with a supporting mHealth intervention. METHODS: Those at risk of diabetes (nondiabetic hyperglycaemia) were recruited from primary care, 2013-2015, and randomised to (1) Control (information leaflet); (2) Walking Away (WA), a structured group education session followed by annual group-based support; or (3) Walking Away Plus (WAP), comprising WA annual group-based support and an mHealth intervention delivering tailored text messages supported by telephone calls. Follow-up was conducted at 12 and 48 months. The primary outcome was accelerometer measured ambulatory activity (steps/day). Change in primary outcome was analysed using analysis of covariance with adjustment for baseline, randomisation and stratification variables. RESULTS: One thousand three hundred sixty-six individuals were randomised (median age = 61 years, ambulatory activity = 6638 steps/day, women = 49%, ethnic minorities = 28%). Accelerometer data were available for 1017 (74%) individuals at 12 months and 993 (73%) at 48 months. At 12 months, WAP increased their ambulatory activity by 547 (97.5% CI 211, 882) steps/day compared to control and were 1.61 (97.5% CI 1.05, 2.45) times more likely to achieve 150 min/week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Differences were not maintained at 48 months. WA was no different to control at 12 or 48 months. Secondary anthropometric and health outcomes were largely unaltered in both intervention groups apart from small reductions in body weight in WA (~ 1 kg) at 12- and 48-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Combining a pragmatic group-based intervention with text messaging and telephone support resulted in modest changes to physical activity at 12 months, but changes were not maintained at 48 months. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 83465245 (registered on 14 June 2012).

Challenges in valuing and paying for combination regimens in oncology: reporting the perspectives of a multi-stakeholder, international workshop.

BACKGROUND: It is increasingly common for two or more treatments for cancer to be combined as a single regimen. Determining value and appropriate payment for such regimens can be challenging. This study discusses these challenges, and possible solutions. METHODS: Stakeholders from around the world attended a 2-day workshop, supported by a background paper. This study captures key outcomes from the discussion, but is not a consensus statement. RESULTS: Workshop attendees agreed that combining on-patent treatments can result in affordability and value for money challenges that delay or deny patient access to clinically effective treatments in many health systems. Options for addressing these challenges include: (i) Increasing the value of combination therapies through improved clinical development; (ii) Willingness to pay more for combinations than for single drugs offering similar benefit, or; (iii) Aligning the cost of constituent therapies with their value within a regimen. Workshop attendees felt that (i) and (iii) merited further discussion, whereas (ii) was unlikely to be justifiable. Views differed on the feasibility of (i). Key to (iii) would be systems allowing different prices to apply to different uses of a drug. CONCLUSIONS: Common ground was identified on immediate actions to improve access to combination regimens. These include an exploration of the legal challenges associated with price negotiations, and ensuring that pricing systems can support implementation of negotiated prices for specific uses. Improvements to clinical development and trial design should be pursued in the medium and longer term.

Disruption of a ∼23-24 nucleotide small RNA pathway elevates DNA damage responses in Tetrahymena thermophila.

Endogenous RNA interference (RNAi) pathways regulate a wide range of cellular processes in diverse eukaryotes, yet in the ciliated eukaryote, Tetrahymena thermophila, the cellular purpose of RNAi pathways that generate ∼23-24 nucleotide (nt) small (s)RNAs has remained unknown. Here, we investigated the phenotypic and gene expression impacts on vegetatively growing cells when genes involved in ∼23-24 nt sRNA biogenesis are disrupted. We observed slower proliferation and increased expression of genes involved in DNA metabolism and chromosome organization and maintenance in sRNA biogenesis mutants RSP1Δ, RDN2Δ, and RDF2Δ. In addition, RSP1Δ and RDN2Δ cells frequently exhibited enlarged chromatin extrusion bodies, which are nonnuclear, DNA-containing structures that may be akin to mammalian micronuclei. Expression of homologous recombination factor Rad51 was specifically elevated in RSP1Δ and RDN2Δ strains, with Rad51 and double-stranded DNA break marker γ-H2A.X localized to discrete macronuclear foci. In addition, an increase in Rad51 and γ-H2A.X foci was also found in knockouts of TWI8, a macronucleus-localized PIWI protein. Together, our findings suggest that an evolutionarily conserved role for RNAi pathways in maintaining genome integrity may be extended even to the early branching eukaryotic lineage that gave rise to Tetrahymena thermophila.

Protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of the DAFNEplus (Dose Adjustment For Normal Eating) intervention compared with 5x1 DAFNE: a lifelong approach to promote effective self-management in adults with type 1 diabetes.

INTRODUCTION: The successful treatment of type 1 diabetes (T1D) requires those affected to employ insulin therapy to maintain their blood glucose levels as close to normal to avoid complications in the long-term. The Dose Adjustment For Normal Eating (DAFNE) intervention is a group education course designed to help adults with T1D develop and sustain the complex self-management skills needed to adjust insulin in everyday life. It leads to improved glucose levels in the short term (manifest by falls in glycated haemoglobin, HbA1c), reduced rates of hypoglycaemia and sustained improvements in quality of life but overall glucose levels remain well above national targets. The DAFNEplus intervention is a development of DAFNE designed to incorporate behavioural change techniques, technology and longer-term structured support from healthcare professionals (HCPs). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in adults with T1D, delivered in diabetes centres in National Health Service secondary care hospitals in the UK. Centres will be randomised on a 1:1 basis to standard DAFNE or DAFNEplus. Primary clinical outcome is the change in HbA1c and the primary endpoint is HbA1c at 12 months, in those entering the trial with HbA1c >7.5% (58 mmol/mol), and HbA1c at 6 months is the secondary endpoint. Sample size is 662 participants (approximately 47 per centre); 92% power to detect a 0.5% difference in the primary outcome of HbA1c between treatment groups. The trial also measures rates of hypoglycaemia, psychological outcomes, an economic evaluation and process evaluation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was granted by South West-Exeter Research Ethics Committee (REC ref: 18/SW/0100) on 14 May 2018. The results of the trial will be published in a National Institute for Health Research monograph and relevant high-impact journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN42908016.

Behavioural interventions to promote physical activity in a multiethnic population at high risk of diabetes: PROPELS three-arm RCT.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is a leading cause of mortality globally and accounts for significant health resource expenditure. Increased physical activity can reduce the risk of diabetes. However, the longer-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physical activity interventions in those at high risk of type 2 diabetes is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether or not Walking Away from Diabetes (Walking Away) - a low-resource, 3-hour group-based behavioural intervention designed to promote physical activity through pedometer use in those with prediabetes - leads to sustained increases in physical activity when delivered with and without an integrated mobile health intervention compared with control. DESIGN: Three-arm, parallel-group, pragmatic, superiority randomised controlled trial with follow-up conducted at 12 and 48 months. SETTING: Primary care and the community. PARTICIPANTS: Adults whose primary care record included a prediabetic blood glucose measurement recorded within the past 5 years [HbA1c ≥ 42 mmol/mol (6.0%), < 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) mmol/mol; fasting glucose ≥ 5.5 mmol/l, < 7.0 mmol/l; or 2-hour post-challenge glucose ≥ 7.8 mmol/l, < 11.1 mmol/l] were recruited between December 2013 and February 2015. Data collection was completed in July 2019. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised (1 : 1 : 1) using a web-based tool to (1) control (information leaflet), (2) Walking Away with annual group-based support or (3) Walking Away Plus (comprising Walking Away, annual group-based support and a mobile health intervention that provided automated, individually tailored text messages to prompt pedometer use and goal-setting and provide feedback, in addition to biannual telephone calls). Participants and data collectors were not blinded; however, the staff who processed the accelerometer data were blinded to allocation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was accelerometer-measured ambulatory activity (steps per day) at 48 months. Other objective and self-reported measures of physical activity were also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 1366 individuals were randomised (median age 61 years, median body mass index 28.4 kg/m2, median ambulatory activity 6638 steps per day, women 49%, black and minority ethnicity 28%). Accelerometer data were available for 1017 (74%) and 993 (73%) individuals at 12 and 48 months, respectively. The primary outcome assessment at 48 months found no differences in ambulatory activity compared with control in either group (Walking Away Plus: 121 steps per day, 97.5% confidence interval -290 to 532 steps per day; Walking Away: 91 steps per day, 97.5% confidence interval -282 to 463). This was consistent across ethnic groups. At the intermediate 12-month assessment, the Walking Away Plus group had increased their ambulatory activity by 547 (97.5% confidence interval 211 to 882) steps per day compared with control and were 1.61 (97.5% confidence interval 1.05 to 2.45) times more likely to achieve 150 minutes per week of objectively assessed unbouted moderate to vigorous physical activity. In the Walking Away group, there were no differences compared with control at 12 months. Secondary anthropometric, biomechanical and mental health outcomes were unaltered in either intervention study arm compared with control at 12 or 48 months, with the exception of small, but sustained, reductions in body weight in the Walking Away study arm (≈ 1 kg) at the 12- and 48-month follow-ups. Lifetime cost-effectiveness modelling suggested that usual care had the highest probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Of 50 serious adverse events, only one (myocardial infarction) was deemed possibly related to the intervention and led to the withdrawal of the participant from the study. LIMITATIONS: Loss to follow-up, although the results were unaltered when missing data were replaced using multiple imputation. CONCLUSIONS: Combining a physical activity intervention with text messaging and telephone support resulted in modest, but clinically meaningful, changes in physical activity at 12 months, but the changes were not sustained at 48 months. FUTURE WORK: Future research is needed to investigate which intervention types, components and features can help to maintain physical activity behaviour change over the longer term. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN83465245. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 77. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

When someone has type 2 diabetes, it means that their body no longer does a good job of controlling the sugar in their blood. This gives them a higher risk of other health problems. Fortunately, people can avoid getting type 2 diabetes if they can change their lifestyle. We wanted to know whether or not an education programme could help people at high risk of getting diabetes to become more physically active and, if so, whether or not they were still more active and healthier 4 years later. We also wanted to know whether it made a difference if we used text messages and telephone calls to support them and whether it worked better for some ethnic groups than others. We put 1366 people into one of three groups at random. The first group received an advice leaflet. The second group attended (in groups of up to 10 participants) a 3-hour education programme called 'Walking Away from Type 2 Diabetes' to help them to change their behaviour and then attended a group-based refresher session every year. The third group received the same education programme and the refresher sessions, but also received text messages and telephone calls to give them extra support. We measured how active the participants were at the start of the study, after 1 year and again 3 years after that (i.e. 4 years after the start). Then we looked at whether or not the Walking Away programme, with and without the extra support of text messages and telephone calls, did a better job of encouraging people to be more active than just giving them the advice leaflet. We found out that the Walking Away programme, when combined with text messages and telephone calls for support, did help participants to take over 500 more steps per day during the first year; however, when we checked again at 4 years, we found that the effects had worn off. Neither option proved to be good value for money.

Evaluating the Ability of Economic Models of Diabetes to Simulate New Cardiovascular Outcomes Trials: A Report on the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge.

OBJECTIVES: The cardiovascular outcomes challenge examined the predictive accuracy of 10 diabetes models in estimating hard outcomes in 2 recent cardiovascular outcomes trials (CVOTs) and whether recalibration can be used to improve replication. METHODS: Participating groups were asked to reproduce the results of the Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients (EMPA-REG OUTCOME) and the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) Program. Calibration was performed and additional analyses assessed model ability to replicate absolute event rates, hazard ratios (HRs), and the generalizability of calibration across CVOTs within a drug class. RESULTS: Ten groups submitted results. Models underestimated treatment effects (ie, HRs) using uncalibrated models for both trials. Calibration to the placebo arm of EMPA-REG OUTCOME greatly improved the prediction of event rates in the placebo, but less so in the active comparator arm. Calibrating to both arms of EMPA-REG OUTCOME individually enabled replication of the observed outcomes. Using EMPA-REG OUTCOME-calibrated models to predict CANVAS Program outcomes was an improvement over uncalibrated models but failed to capture treatment effects adequately. Applying canagliflozin HRs directly provided the best fit. CONCLUSIONS: The Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge demonstrated that commonly used risk equations were generally unable to capture recent CVOT treatment effects but that calibration of the risk equations can improve predictive accuracy. Although calibration serves as a practical approach to improve predictive accuracy for CVOT outcomes, it does not extrapolate generally to other settings, time horizons, and comparators. New methods and/or new risk equations for capturing these CV benefits are needed.

Psychological interventions to improve self-management of type 1 and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: For people with diabetes mellitus to achieve optimal glycaemic control, motivation to perform self-management is important. The research team wanted to determine whether or not psychological interventions are clinically effective and cost-effective in increasing self-management and improving glycaemic control. OBJECTIVES: The first objective was to determine the clinical effectiveness of psychological interventions for people with type 1 diabetes mellitus and people with type 2 diabetes mellitus so that they have improved (1) glycated haemoglobin levels, (2) diabetes self-management and (3) quality of life, and fewer depressive symptoms. The second objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of psychological interventions. DATA SOURCES: The following databases were accessed (searches took place between 2003 and 2016): MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Web of Science, and Dissertation Abstracts International. Diabetes conference abstracts, reference lists of included studies and Clinicaltrials.gov trial registry were also searched. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic review, aggregate meta-analysis, network meta-analysis, individual patient data meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness modelling were all used. Risk of bias of randomised and non-randomised controlled trials was assessed using the Cochrane Handbook (Higgins JP, Altman DG, Gøtzsche PC, Jüni P, Moher D, Oxman AD, et al. The Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. BMJ 2011;343:d5928). DESIGN: Systematic review, meta-analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis and patient and public consultation were all used. SETTING: Settings in primary or secondary care were included. PARTICIPANTS: Adolescents and children with type 1 diabetes mellitus and adults with types 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus were included. INTERVENTIONS: The interventions used were psychological treatments, including and not restricted to cognitive-behavioural therapy, counselling, family therapy and psychotherapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glycated haemoglobin levels, self-management behaviours, body mass index, blood pressure levels, depressive symptoms and quality of life were all used as outcome measures. RESULTS: A total of 96 studies were included in the systematic review (n = 18,659 participants). In random-effects meta-analysis, data on glycated haemoglobin levels were available for seven studies conducted in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (n = 851 participants) that demonstrated a pooled mean difference of -0.13 (95% confidence interval -0.33 to 0.07), a non-significant decrease in favour of psychological treatment; 18 studies conducted in adolescents/children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (n = 2583 participants) that demonstrated a pooled mean difference of 0.00 (95% confidence interval -0.18 to 0.18), indicating no change; and 49 studies conducted in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (n = 12,009 participants) that demonstrated a pooled mean difference of -0.21 (95% confidence interval -0.31 to -0.10), equivalent to reduction in glycated haemoglobin levels of -0.33% or ≈3.5 mmol/mol. For type 2 diabetes mellitus, there was evidence that psychological interventions improved dietary behaviour and quality of life but not blood pressure, body mass index or depressive symptoms. The results of the network meta-analysis, which considers direct and indirect effects of multiple treatment comparisons, suggest that, for adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (7 studies; 968 participants), attention control and cognitive-behavioural therapy are clinically effective and cognitive-behavioural therapy is cost-effective. For adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (49 studies; 12,409 participants), cognitive-behavioural therapy and counselling are effective and cognitive-behavioural therapy is potentially cost-effective. The results of the individual patient data meta-analysis for adolescents/children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (9 studies; 1392 participants) suggest that there were main effects for age and diabetes duration. For adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (19 studies; 3639 participants), baseline glycated haemoglobin levels moderated treatment outcome. LIMITATIONS: Aggregate meta-analysis was limited to glycaemic control for type 1 diabetes mellitus. It was not possible to model cost-effectiveness for adolescents/children with type 1 diabetes mellitus and modelling for type 2 diabetes mellitus involved substantial uncertainty. The individual patient data meta-analysis included only 40-50% of studies. CONCLUSIONS: This review suggests that psychological treatments offer minimal clinical benefit in improving glycated haemoglobin levels for adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, there was no evidence of benefit compared with control interventions in improving glycated haemoglobin levels for people with type 1 diabetes mellitus. FUTURE WORK: Future work should consider the competency of the interventionists delivering a therapy and psychological approaches that are matched to a person and their life course. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016033619. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Living with diabetes mellitus (hereafter referred to as diabetes) involves taking on new roles and responsibilities and is key to success in achieving the best diabetes control. There are education programmes that help people with diabetes to access the information and skills needed but managing diabetes is hard and must be done 24/7, causing people to lose motivation. There are many emotional reasons for this. This research team aimed to discover if talking therapies that are designed to help people challenge their negative thoughts and feelings and be more motivated and confident could help improve their self-management and blood glucose levels. The team also wanted to find out if talking therapies could be good value for money and people with diabetes were asked for their views on the research. To conduct the research, electronic databases were searched for studies that have used talking therapies to support diabetes management. It was found that: For adults with type 2 diabetes, talking therapies improved diabetes control by only a small amount, although such therapies could represent value for money. People with type 2 diabetes who had talking therapy reported improved diet and quality of life. For adults with type 1 diabetes, some types of talking therapies could improve diabetes control, although this result was uncertain. Talking therapies were not effective for children or adolescents in improving diabetes control but there was not enough data to see if the therapies improved general health and well-being.When the results were presented to people with diabetes, they still wanted access to these treatments, even though results of this research did not suggest, overall, that talking therapies help improve diabetes control.Now that this research is complete, it is suggested that future studies look at whether or not more sessions of talking therapies should be delivered over a longer time period and whether or not the therapies should match the needs of the person with diabetes more closely.

Psychological interventions to improve glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The quality of evidence that psychological interventions are effective in improving glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is weak.We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of psychological interventions in T2D to assess whether their effectiveness in improving glycemic levels has improved over the past 30 years. We applied the protocol of a systematic review and aggregate meta-analysis conducted to January 2003. We added network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare intervention and control group type against usual care. MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Cochrane Controlled Trials Database, Web of Science, and Dissertation Abstracts International were searched from January 2003 to July 2018. Only randomized controlled trials (RCT) of psychological interventions for adults with T2D reported in any language were included. The primary outcome was change in glycemic control (glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in mmol/mol). Data were extracted from study reports and authors were contacted for missing data.94 RCTs were eligible for inclusion in the systematic review since the last review. In 70 RCTs (n=14 796 participants) the pooled mean difference in HbA1c in those randomized to psychological intervention compared with control group was -0.19 (95% CI -0.25 to -0.12), equivalent to a reduction in HbA1c of 3.7 mmol/mol, with moderate heterogeneity across studies (I2=64.7%, p<0.001). NMA suggested the probability of intervention effectiveness is highest for self-help materials, cognitive-behavioral therapy, and counseling, compared with usual care. Limitations of this study include that there is a possibility that some studies may have been missed if diabetes did not appear in the title or abstract.The effectiveness of psychological interventions for adults with T2D have minimal clinical benefit in improving glycemic control. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016033619.

Empowering statistical methods for cellular and molecular biologists.

We provide guidelines for using statistical methods to analyze the types of experiments reported in cellular and molecular biology journals such as Molecular Biology of the Cell. Our aim is to help experimentalists use these methods skillfully, avoid mistakes, and extract the maximum amount of information from their laboratory work. We focus on comparing the average values of control and experimental samples. A Supplemental Tutorial provides examples of how to analyze experimental data using R software.

Ibrutinib for Treating Relapsed or Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

As part of its Single Technology Appraisal process, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of ibrutinib (Janssen) to submit evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of ibrutinib for the treatment of relapsed or refractory (R/R) mantle cell lymphoma (MCL). The School of Health and Related Research Technology Assessment Group at the University of Sheffield was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence contained within the company's submission to NICE. The clinical effectiveness evidence for ibrutinib included one randomised controlled trial comparing ibrutinib and temsirolimus and two single-arm studies. The company's indirect comparison of ibrutinib versus rituximab plus chemotherapy (R-chemo) produced a hazard ratio (HR) for progression-free survival (PFS) of 0.28. The ERG's random effects network meta-analysis (NMA) indicated that the treatment effect on PFS was highly uncertain (HR 0.27; 95% credible interval (CrI) 0.06-1.26). The company's Markov model assessed the cost effectiveness of ibrutinib versus R-chemo for the treatment of R/R MCL from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services over a lifetime horizon. Based on a re-run of the company's model by the ERG, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for ibrutinib versus R-chemo [including the company's original patient access scheme (PAS)] was expected to be £76,014 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The ERG had several concerns regarding the company's model structure and the evidence used to inform its parameters. The ERG's preferred analysis, which used the ERG's NMA and the observed Kaplan-Meier curve for time to ibrutinib discontinuation and excluded long-term disutilities for R-chemo, produced ICERs of £63,340 per QALY gained for the overall R/R MCL population and of £44,711 per QALY gained for patients with one prior treatment. Following an updated PAS and consideration of evidence from a later data-cut of the RAY trial, the appraisal committee concluded that the most plausible ICER for the one prior treatment subgroup was likely to be lower than the company's estimate of £49,848 per QALY gained. The company's ICER for the overall R/R MCL population was higher, at £62,650 per QALY gained. The committee recommended ibrutinib as an option for treating R/R MCL in adults only if they have received only one previous line of therapy and the company provides ibrutinib with the discount agreed in the commercial access agreement with NHS England.