On the Value of Chess Squares.

We propose a neural network-based approach to calculate the value of a chess square-piece combination. Our model takes a triplet (color, piece, square) as the input and calculates a value that measures the advantage/disadvantage of having this piece on this square. Our methods build on recent advances in chess AI, and can accurately assess the worth of positions in a game of chess. The conventional approach assigns fixed values to pieces (= ∞, = 9, = 5, = 3, = 3, = 1). We enhance this analysis by introducing marginal valuations. We use deep Q-learning to estimate the parameters of our model. We demonstrate our method by examining the positioning of knights and bishops, and also provide valuable insights into the valuation of pawns. Finally, we conclude by suggesting potential avenues for future research.

Tracking Epidemics With Google Flu Trends Data and a State-Space SEIR Model.

In this article, we use Google Flu Trends data together with a sequential surveillance model based on state-space methodology to track the evolution of an epidemic process over time. We embed a classical mathematical epidemiology model [a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model] within the state-space framework, thereby extending the SEIR dynamics to allow changes through time. The implementation of this model is based on a particle filtering algorithm, which learns about the epidemic process sequentially through time and provides updated estimated odds of a pandemic with each new surveillance data point. We show how our approach, in combination with sequential Bayes factors, can serve as an online diagnostic tool for influenza pandemic. We take a close look at the Google Flu Trends data describing the spread of flu in the United States during 2003-2009 and in nine separate U.S. states chosen to represent a wide range of health care and emergency system strengths and weaknesses. This article has online supplementary materials.