Censored Regression Modeling To Predict Virus Inactivation in Wastewaters.

Among the many uncertainties presented by poorly studied pathogens is possible transmission via human fecal material or wastewaters. Such worries were a documented concern during the 2013 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Using published experimental data on virus inactivation rates in wastewater and similar matrices, we extracted data to construct a model predicting the T90 (1 × log10 inactivation measured in seconds) of a virus. Extracted data were as follows: RNA or DNA genome, enveloped or not, primary transmission pathway, temperature, pH, light levels, and matrix. From the primary details, we further determined matrix level of contamination, genus, and taxonomic family. Prior to model construction, three records were separated for verification. A censored normal regression model provided the best fit model, which predicted T90 from DNA or RNA structure, enveloped status, whether primary transmission pathway was fecal-oral, temperature, and whether contamination was low, medium, or high. Model residuals and predicted values were evaluated against observed values. Mean values of model predictions were compared to independent data and considering 95% confidence ranges (which could be quite large). A relatively simple model can predict virus inactivation rates from virus and matrix attributes, providing valuable input when formulating risk management strategies for little studied pathogens.

Recommendations for dealing with waste contaminated with Ebola virus: a Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points approach.

OBJECTIVE: To assess, within communities experiencing Ebola virus outbreaks, the risks associated with the disposal of human waste and to generate recommendations for mitigating such risks. METHODS: A team with expertise in the Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points framework identified waste products from the care of individuals with Ebola virus disease and constructed, tested and confirmed flow diagrams showing the creation of such products. After listing potential hazards associated with each step in each flow diagram, the team conducted a hazard analysis, determined critical control points and made recommendations to mitigate the transmission risks at each control point. FINDINGS: The collection, transportation, cleaning and shared use of blood-soiled fomites and the shared use of latrines contaminated with blood or bloodied faeces appeared to be associated with particularly high levels of risk of Ebola virus transmission. More moderate levels of risk were associated with the collection and transportation of material contaminated with bodily fluids other than blood, shared use of latrines soiled with such fluids, the cleaning and shared use of fomites soiled with such fluids, and the contamination of the environment during the collection and transportation of blood-contaminated waste. CONCLUSION: The risk of the waste-related transmission of Ebola virus could be reduced by the use of full personal protective equipment, appropriate hand hygiene and an appropriate disinfectant after careful cleaning. Use of the Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points framework could facilitate rapid responses to outbreaks of emerging infectious disease.

Presence and Persistence of Ebola or Marburg Virus in Patients and Survivors: A Rapid Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: The 2013-15 Ebola outbreak was unprecedented due to sustained transmission within urban environments and thousands of survivors. In 2014 the World Health Organization stated that there was insufficient evidence to give definitive guidance about which body fluids are infectious and when they pose a risk to humans. We report a rapid systematic review of published evidence on the presence of filoviruses in body fluids of infected people and survivors. METHODS: Scientific articles were screened for information about filovirus in human body fluids. The aim was to find primary data that suggested high likelihood of actively infectious filovirus in human body fluids (viral RNA). Eligible infections were from Marburg virus (MARV or RAVV) and Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest and Bundibugyo species of Ebola. Cause of infection had to be laboratory confirmed (in practice either tissue culture or RT-PCR tests), or evidenced by compatible clinical history with subsequent positivity for filovirus antibodies or inflammatory factors. Data were extracted and summarized narratively. RESULTS: 6831 unique articles were found, and after screening, 33 studies were eligible. For most body fluid types there were insufficient patients to draw strong conclusions, and prevalence of positivity was highly variable. Body fluids taken >16 days after onset were usually negative. In the six studies that used both assay methods RT-PCR tests for filovirus RNA gave positive results about 4 times more often than tissue culture. CONCLUSIONS: Filovirus was reported in most types of body fluid, but not in every sample from every otherwise confirmed patient. Apart from semen, most non-blood, RT-PCR positive samples are likely to be culture negative and so possibly of low infectious risk. Nevertheless, it is not apparent how relatively infectious many body fluids are during or after illness, even when culture-positive, not least because most test results come from more severe cases. Contact with blood and blood-stained body fluids remains the major risk for disease transmission because of the known high viral loads in blood.

Risk factors for transmission of Ebola or Marburg virus disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Ebola virus disease outbreak that started in Western Africa in 2013 was unprecedented because it spread within densely populated urban environments and affected many thousands of people. As a result, previous advice and guidelines need to be critically reviewed, especially with regard to transmission risks in different contexts. METHODS: Scientific and grey literature were searched for articles about any African filovirus. Articles were screened for information about transmission (prevalence or odds ratios especially). Data were extracted from eligible articles and summarized narratively with partial meta-analysis. Study quality was also evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 31 reports were selected from 6552 found in the initial search. Eight papers gave numerical odds for contracting filovirus illness; 23 further articles provided supporting anecdotal observations about how transmission probably occurred for individuals. Many forms of contact (conversation, sharing a meal, sharing a bed, direct or indirect touching) were unlikely to result in disease transmission during incubation or early illness. Among household contacts who reported directly touching a case, the attack rate was 32% [95% confidence interval (CI) 26-38%]. Risk of disease transmission between household members without direct contact was low (1%; 95% CI 0-5%). Caring for a case in the community, especially until death, and participation in traditional funeral rites were strongly associated with acquiring disease, probably due to a high degree of direct physical contact with case or cadaver. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission of filovirus is unlikely except through close contact, especially during the most severe stages of acute illness. More data are needed about the context, intimacy and timing of contact required to raise the odds of disease transmission. Risk factors specific to urban settings may need to be determined.

The application of computational fluid dynamics and small-scale physical models to assess the effects of operational practices on the risk to public health within large indoor swimming pools.

Swimming pools provide an excellent facility for exercise and leisure but are also prone to contamination from microbial pathogens. The study modelled a 50-m × 20-m swimming pool using both a small-scale physical model and computational fluid dynamics to investigate how water and pathogens move around a pool in order to identify potential risk spots. Our study revealed a number of lessons for pool operators, designers and policy-makers: disinfection reaches the majority of a full-scale pool in approximately 16 minutes operating at the maximum permissible inlet velocity of 0.5 m/s. This suggests that where a pool is designed to have 15 paired inlets it is capable of distributing disinfectant throughout the water body within an acceptable time frame. However, the study also showed that the exchange rate of water is not uniform across the pool tank and that there is potential for areas of the pool tank to retain contaminated water for significant periods of time. 'Dead spots' exist at either end of the pool where pathogens could remain. This is particularly significant if there is a faecal release into the pool by bathers infected with Cryptosporidium parvum, increasing the potential for waterborne disease transmission.

Economic assessments of small-scale drinking-water interventions in pursuit of MDG target 7C.

This paper uses an applied rural case study of a safer water intervention in South Africa to illustrate how three levels of economic assessment can be used to understand the impact of the intervention on people's well-being. It is set in the context of Millennium Development Goal 7 which sets a target (7C) for safe drinking-water provision and the challenges of reaching people in remote rural areas with relatively small-scale schemes. The assessment moves from cost efficiency to cost effectiveness to a full social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) with an associated sensitivity test. In addition to demonstrating techniques of analysis, the paper brings out many of the challenges in understanding how safer drinking-water impacts on people's livelihoods. The SCBA shows the case study intervention is justified economically, though the sensitivity test suggests 'downside' vulnerability.

Recreational water quality in the Caspian Sea.

Health-based monitoring of the Caspian Sea in Turkmenistan and Iran suggests that bathers are intermittently subject to increased levels of faecal pollution which may lead to gastrointestinal illness. This is the first co-ordinated monitoring programme of recreational waters in the Caspian region and highlights the need to extend such a programme to all countries bordering the Caspian Sea. The novel approach of monitoring that combines risk assessment (water quality monitoring plus a sanitary survey) and risk management, as applied here, allows the identification of possible sources of pollution and the levels of microbiological risk that bathers are subject to. Hence, this allows suitable management interventions to be identified and implemented in the long-term.