Mortality risk and long-term exposure to ultrafine particles and primary fine particle components in a national U.S. Cohort.

The objective of this study was to estimate all-cause, cardiopulmonary, and cancer mortality associations for long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) and primary PM2.5 components. We utilized high-resolution, national-scale exposure estimates for UFP (measured as particle number concentration; PNC) and three primary PM2.5 components, namely black carbon (BC), traffic-emitted organic PM2.5 (hereafter, hydrocarbon-like organic aerosols; HOA), and cooking-emitted organic PM2.5 (cooking organic aerosols; COA). Two analytic cohorts were constructed from a nationally representative U.S. health survey. The larger cohort consisted of 617,997 adults with information on a broad set of individual-level risk factors; the smaller cohort was further restricted to those with information on physical activity (n = 396,470). In single-pollutant models, PNC was significantly associated with all-cause (larger cohort HR = 1.03, 95% CI [1.02, 1.04]; smaller cohort HR = 1.02, 95% CI [1.00, 1.04]) and cancer mortality (larger cohort HR = 1.05, 95% CI [1.02, 1.08]; smaller cohort HR = 1.06, 95% CI [1.02, 1.10]). In two-pollutant models, mortality associations varied based on co-pollutant adjustment; PNC mortality associations were generally robust to controlling for PM10-2.5 and SO2, but not PM2.5. In contrast, we found some evidence that the HOA and COA mortality associations are independent of total PM2.5 mass exposure. Nevertheless, PM2.5 mass was the most robust predictor of air pollution related mortality, providing some support for current regulatory policies.

Mortality risk associated with greenness, air pollution, and physical activity in a representative U.S. cohort.

Several cohort studies suggest greenness is associated with decreased mortality risk. Potential confounding by or interactions between physical activity and air pollution remains unclear. This study evaluates associations of greenness, air pollution, and physical activity with mortality risk and investigates confounding and effect modification across these key risk factors. National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data covering 1997-2014 were linked to the National Death Index to generate a cohort of 403,748 individuals with 39,528 deaths. Greenness, represented by census-tract Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the seasonal period of May-October, was averaged over the years 2003-2016. Air pollution was estimated by census-tract level PM2.5 concentrations from 1999 to 2015. Cox Proportional Hazard Models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for differences in greenness, air pollution, and physical activity. Alternative models that evaluated potential confounding and stratified models that evaluated effect modification were examined. Mortality risks were associated with PM2.5 (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.19 per 10 µg/m3) and physical inactivity (1.49, 1.44-1.54 relative to sufficiently active), but not with greenness (1.01, 0.99-1.03 per IQR). The PM2.5-mortality association was mitigated at high levels of greenness (1.05, 0.91-1.22). There was no strong evidence of confounding between air pollution, physical activity, and greenness. However, stratified analysis suggested effect modification for PM2.5 and NDVI by physical activity. A significant protective greenness-mortality association was observed for only highly active individuals (0.91, 0.86-0.96). Also, relatively high PM2.5-mortality HRs were observed for more physically active individuals (1.25, 1.12-1.40). PM2.5 air pollution and physical inactivity are robustly associated with mortality risk. Greenness may be most beneficial and air pollution relatively harmful to highly active individuals. This analysis provides evidence that, in addition to not smoking, being physically active and living in a clean, green environment contributes to improved health and reduced risk of mortality.

Cardiopulmonary Mortality and Fine Particulate Air Pollution by Species and Source in a National U.S. Cohort.

The purpose of this study was to estimate cardiopulmonary mortality associations for long-term exposure to PM2.5 species and sources (i.e., components) within the U.S. National Health Interview Survey cohort. Exposures were estimated through a chemical transport model for six species (i.e., elemental carbon (EC), primary organic aerosols (POA), secondary organic aerosols (SOA), sulfate (SO4), ammonium (NH4), nitrate (NO3)) and five sources of PM2.5 (i.e., vehicles, electricity-generating units (EGU), non-EGU industrial sources, biogenic sources (bio), "other" sources). In single-pollutant models, we found positive, significant (p < 0.05) mortality associations for all components, except POA. After adjusting for remaining PM2.5 (total PM2.5 minus component), we found significant mortality associations for EC (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.36; 95% CI [1.12, 1.64]), SOA (HR = 1.11; 95% CI [1.05, 1.17]), and vehicle sources (HR = 1.06; 95% CI [1.03, 1.10]). HRs for EC, SOA, and vehicle sources were significantly larger in comparison to those for remaining PM2.5 (per unit µg/m3). Our findings suggest that cardiopulmonary mortality associations vary by species and source, with evidence that EC, SOA, and vehicle sources are important contributors to the PM2.5 mortality relationship. With further validation, these findings could facilitate targeted pollution regulations that more efficiently reduce air pollution mortality.

Shape of BMI-Mortality Risk Associations: Reverse Causality and Heterogeneity in a Representative Cohort of US Adults.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines BMI-mortality associations and evaluates strategies intended to limit reverse causality. Heterogeneity in BMI-mortality risk associations across subgroups and causes of death is explored. METHODS: A cohort of 654,382 adults from the US National Health Interview Survey was constructed. Associations between unit BMI levels and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, including and excluding the first 5 years of follow-up, with and without controls for smoking or preexisting conditions, and including and excluding ever-smokers and individuals with preexisting conditions. Stratified analyses by individual characteristics were performed. RESULTS: Addressing reverse causality led to reduced risk of mortality among those with low BMI levels (<18 kg/m2 ). Excluding ever-smokers and individuals with preexisting conditions further led to increased risk among those with high BMI levels (between 33 kg/m2 and >40 kg/m2 ) and lowered the estimated nadir risk from 27 kg/m2 to 23 kg/m2 . After excluding ever-smokers and individuals with preexisting conditions, limiting the analysis to >5 years of follow-up produced no substantive changes. Heterogeneous results were observed across individual characteristics, particularly age and causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: The exclusion of smokers and individuals with preexisting conditions alters the BMI-mortality risk association and results in a somewhat lower range of BMI with minimum mortality risk.

Fine particulate air pollution and human mortality: 25+ years of cohort studies.

Much of the key epidemiological evidence that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) contributes to increased risk of mortality comes from survival studies of cohorts of individuals. Although the first two of these studies, published in the mid-1990s, were highly controversial, much has changed in the last 25 + years. The objectives of this paper are to succinctly compile and summarize the findings of these cohort studies using meta-analytic tools and to address several of the key controversies. Independent reanalysis and substantial extended analysis of the original cohort studies have been conducted and many additional studies using a wide variety of cohorts, including cohorts constructed from public data and leveraging natural experiments have been published. Meta-analytic estimates of the mean of the distribution of effects from cohort studies that are currently available, provide substantial evidence of adverse air pollution associations with all-cause, cardiopulmonary, and lung cancer mortality.