Distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks in real-time: A novel method applied to the COVID-19 crisis in Germany.

The highly dynamic nature of the COVID-19 crisis poses an unprecedented challenge to policy makers around the world to take appropriate income-stabilizing countermeasures. To properly design such policy measures, it is important to quantify their effects in real-time. However, data on the relevant outcomes at the micro level is usually only available with considerable time lags. In this paper, we propose a novel method to assess the distributional consequences of macroeconomic shocks and policy responses in real-time and provide the first application to Germany in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, our approach combines different economic models estimated on firm- and household-level data: a VAR-model for output expectations, a structural labor demand model, and a tax-benefit microsimulation model. Our findings show that as of September 2020 the COVID-19 shock translates into a noticeable reduction in gross labor income across the entire income distribution. However, the tax benefit system and discretionary policy responses to the crisis act as important income stabilizers, since the effect on the distribution of disposable household incomes turns progressive: the bottom two deciles actually gain income, the middle deciles are hardly affected, and only the upper deciles lose income. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-021-09489-4.

Characterization of Phenolic Compounds and Their Contribution to Sensory Properties of Olive Oil.

Olive oil is not only known for its pungent, bitter, and fruity taste, but also for its health potential, which is often hypothesized to depend on its phenolic compounds. One hundred extra virgin olive oil samples (monocultivaric as well as blends of varieties) were assessed with regard to their sensory properties and phenolic compound composition. Nineteen phenolic compounds have been determined and correlated with sensory data. In all olive oil samples, oleocanthal and oleacein were the most abundant phenolic compounds, with average amounts of 77.9 mg/kg and 41.8 mg/kg, respectively. The highest correlation coefficient between a sensory descriptor and the phenolic compounds was found for the bitter taste sensation and the total phenolic content with r = 0.72 and in particular, for 3,4-DHPEA-EA, with r = 0.57. Intensity plots were assessed for the three main sensory descriptors fruitiness, bitterness, pungency, and for the quality factor harmony, which is associated with the degree of ripeness aroma of olive oil. Positive correlations for the aroma descriptors freshly cut grass, leaves, and nuts, and the phenolic compounds were especially observed for oleoside 11-methylester and vanillic acid. The present study provides a comprehensive database of phenolic compounds in olive oils from six different varieties and seven countries.

Sensory analysis and consumer acceptance of 140 high-quality extra virgin olive oils.

BACKGROUND: Sensory analysis is a crucial tool for evaluating the quality of extra virgin olive oils. One aim of such an investigation is to verify if the sensory attributes themselves - which are strictly related to volatile and phenolic compounds - may permit the discrimination of high-quality products obtained by olives of different cultivars and/or grown in various regions. Moreover, a crucial topic is to investigate the interdependency between relevant parameters determining consumer acceptance and objective sensory characteristics evaluated by the panel test. RESULTS: By statistically analysing the sensory results, a grouping - but not discriminatory - effect was shown for some cultivars and some producing areas. The preference map shows that the most appreciated samples by consumers were situated in the direction of the 'ripe fruity' and 'sweet' axis and opposite to the 'bitter' and 'other attributes' (pungent, green fruity, freshly cut grass, green tomato, harmony, persistency) axis. CONCLUSION: Extra virgin olive oils produced from olives of the same cultivars and grown in the same areas shared similar sensorial attributes. Some differences in terms of expectation and interpretation of sensory characteristics of extra virgin olive oils might be present for consumers and panellists: most of the consumers appear unfamiliar with positive sensorial attributes, such as bitterness and pungency.