Sub-Saharan Africa Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) we first conducted in 2020 by providing two additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in SSA when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in SSA. METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al. (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with a rolling, six month-window of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region remained well below the outbreak threshold before and after the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. The 7-day persistence coefficient remained somewhat large (1.11) and statistically significant. However, both shift parameters for the weeks around the WHO declaration were negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had become recently smaller. From November 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten was insignificant for the entire sample period. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in SSA, the region never reached outbreak status, and the weekly transmission rate had remained below one case per 100,000 population for well over one year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of a pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended in SSA by the time of the WHO declaration.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels. METHODS: In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear.

Prevalence of Alcohol in Unintentional Opioid Overdose Deaths, 2017-2020.

This cross-sectional study investigates the prevalence of alcohol in unintentional opioid overdose deaths in Illinois from 2017 through 2020.

Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred. METHODS: We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate. RESULTS: Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.

Surgical management of female genital mutilation-related morbidity: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Over 200 million women and girls worldwide have suffered from the partial to total removal of external female genitalia for nonmedical purposes, referred to as female genital mutilation (FGM). Survivors of FGM may develop debilitating physical and psychological long-term sequelae. This is the first study to examine the scope of the extant surgical literature on the management of FGM-related morbidity. METHODS: A systematic scoping review of five major research citation databases was conducted. RESULTS: A total of 190 articles from 29 countries met the inclusion criteria. The majority (76%) were primary source articles and from obstetrics and gynecology literature (71%). Reported interventions for FGM-related morbidity were defibulation, cyst excision, clitoral and vulvar reconstruction, urological reconstruction, peripartum procedures, labial adhesion release, and reinfibulation. CONCLUSIONS: Surgery for FGM complications spans multiple specialties, which suggests multidisciplinary collaboration benefit. Plastic and reconstructive surgeons have a clear role in the multidisciplinary care team for these patients. This scoping review identified a paucity of high-quality evidence with respect to functional quality of life outcomes and long-term follow-up.

Documentation of Screening for Firearm Access by Healthcare Providers in the Veterans Healthcare System: A Retrospective Study.

INTRODUCTION: Presence of a firearm is associated with increased risk of violence and suicide. United States military veterans are at disproportionate risk of suicide. Routine healthcare provider screening of firearm access may prompt counseling on safe storage and handling of firearms. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency with which Veterans Health Administration (VHA) healthcare providers document firearm access in electronic health record (EHR) clinical notes, and whether this varied by patient characteristics. METHODS: The study sample is a post-9-11 cohort of veterans in their first year of VHA care, with at least one outpatient care visit between 2012-2017 (N = 762,953). Demographic data, veteran military service characteristics, and clinical comorbidities were obtained from VHA EHR. We extracted clinical notes for outpatient visits to primary, urgent, or emergency clinics (total 105,316,004). Natural language processing and machine learning (ML) approaches were used to identify documentation of firearm access. A taxonomy of firearm terms was identified and manually annotated with text anchored by these terms, and then trained the ML algorithm. The random-forest algorithm achieved 81.9% accuracy in identifying documentation of firearm access. RESULTS: The proportion of patients with EHR-documented access to one or more firearms during their first year of care in the VHA was relatively low and varied by patient characteristics. Men had significantly higher documentation of firearms than women (9.8% vs 7.1%; P < .001) and veterans >50 years old had the lowest (6.5%). Among veterans with any firearm term present, only 24.4% were classified as positive for access to a firearm (24.7% of men and 20.9% of women). CONCLUSION: Natural language processing can identify documentation of access to firearms in clinical notes with acceptable accuracy, but there is a need for investigation into facilitators and barriers for providers and veterans to improve a systemwide process of firearm access screening. Screening, regardless of race/ethnicity, gender, and age, provides additional opportunities to protect veterans from self-harm and violence.

Dynamic Panel Data Modeling and Surveillance of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Areas in the United States: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound and differential impacts on metropolitan areas across the United States and around the world. Within the United States, metropolitan areas that were hit earliest with the pandemic and reacted with scientifically based health policy were able to contain the virus by late spring. For other areas that kept businesses open, the first wave in the United States hit in mid-summer. As the weather turns colder, universities resume classes, and people tire of lockdowns, a second wave is ascending in both metropolitan and rural areas. It becomes more obvious that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed at the local level to track recent shifts in the pandemic, rates of increase, and persistence. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand and manage risk in metropolitan areas. Existing surveillance measures coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until, and after, an effective vaccine is developed. Here, we provide values for novel indicators to measure COVID-19 transmission at the metropolitan area level. METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 260 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the 25 largest US metropolitan areas as a function of the prior number of cases and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: Minneapolis and Chicago have the greatest average number of daily new positive results per standardized 100,000 population (which we refer to as speed). Extreme behavior in Minneapolis showed an increase in speed from 17 to 30 (67%) in 1 week. The jerk and acceleration calculated for these areas also showed extreme behavior. The dynamic panel data model shows that Minneapolis, Chicago, and Detroit have the largest persistence effects, meaning that new cases pertaining to a specific week are statistically attributable to new cases from the prior week. CONCLUSIONS: Three of the metropolitan areas with historically early and harsh winters have the highest persistence effects out of the top 25 most populous metropolitan areas in the United States at the beginning of their cold weather season. With these persistence effects, and with indoor activities becoming more popular as the weather gets colder, stringent COVID-19 regulations will be more important than ever to flatten the second wave of the pandemic. As colder weather grips more of the nation, southern metropolitan areas may also see large spikes in the number of cases.

Does Value Vary by Center Surgical Volume for Neonates With Truncus Arteriosus? A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Truncus arteriosus is a congenital heart defect with high resource use, cost, and mortality. Value assessment (outcome relative to cost) can improve quality of care and decrease cost. This study hypothesized that truncus arteriosus repair at a high-volume center would result in better outcomes at lower cost (higher value) compared with a low-volume center. METHODS: This study retrospectively analyzed a multicenter cohort of neonates undergoing truncus arteriosus repair (2004 to 2015) by using the Pediatric Health Information Systems database. Multivariate quantile, logistic, and negative binomial regression models were used to evaluate total hospital cost, in-hospital mortality, ventilation days, intensive care unit length of stay (LOS), hospital LOS, and days of inotropic agent use by center volume (high-volume >3/year) and age at repair while adjusting for sex, ethnicity, race, genetic abnormality, prematurity, low birth weight, concurrent interrupted arch repair, and truncal valve repair. RESULTS: Of 1024 neonates with truncus arteriosus, 495 (48%) were treated at high-volume centers. Costs at the 75th percentile were lower at high-volume vs low-volume centers by $28,456 (P = .02) at all ages at repair. Patients at high-volume centers had lower median postoperative ventilation days (5 days vs 6 days; P < .001), intensive care unit LOS (13 days vs 19 days; P < .001), hospital LOS (23 days vs 28 days; P = .02), and inotropic agent use (3 days vs 4 days; P = .004). In-hospital mortality did not differ by center volume. CONCLUSIONS: In neonates undergoing truncus arteriosus repair, costs are lower and outcomes are better at high-volume centers, thus resulting in higher value at all ages of repair. Value-based interventions should be considered to improve outcomes and decrease cost in truncus arteriosus care.

Fingerprint-based background checks for personal care workers: Stakeholder views of policy criteria.

Decision makers face difficult choices when tasked with identifying and implementing appropriate mechanisms for protecting the elderly and other vulnerable adults from abuse. A pilot project involving fingerprint-based criminal history background checks for personal care workers in Michigan has supplied an opportunity to examine one such mechanism. In conjunction with the pilot project, we have conducted a stakeholder analysis with the aim of informing decision makers about stakeholder perceptions of standard policy criteria like effectiveness, efficiency, and equity. We employed focus groups and a Web-based survey to collect data from stakeholders. While stakeholders generally see fingerprint-based background checks for personal care workers as potentially effective and as a net benefit, they also point to a variety of contingencies. They also recognize difficulties and constraints for government involvement. This preliminary analysis provides solid foundational information for decision makers and for more extensive benefit-cost analysis.

Patient-Centered Decision Support: Formative Usability Evaluation of Integrated Clinical Decision Support With a Patient Decision Aid for Minor Head Injury in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: The Canadian Computed Tomography (CT) Head Rule, a clinical decision rule designed to safely reduce imaging in minor head injury, has been rigorously validated and implemented, and yet expected decreases in CT were unsuccessful. Recent work has identified empathic care as a key component in decreasing CT overuse. Health information technology can hinder the clinician-patient relationship. Patient-centered decision tools to support the clinician-patient relationship are needed to promote evidence-based decisions. OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to formatively evaluate an electronic tool that not only helps clinicians at the bedside to determine the need for CT use based on the Canadian CT Head Rule but also promotes evidence-based conversations between patients and clinicians regarding patient-specific risk and patients' specific concerns. METHODS: User-centered design with practice-based and participatory decision aid development was used to design, develop, and evaluate patient-centered decision support regarding CT use in minor head injury in the emergency department. User experience and user interface (UX/UI) development involved successive iterations with incremental refinement in 4 phases: (1) initial prototype development, (2) usability assessment, (3) field testing, and (4) beta testing. This qualitative approach involved input from patients, emergency care clinicians, health services researchers, designers, and clinical informaticists at every stage. RESULTS: The Concussion or Brain Bleed app is the product of 16 successive iterative revisions in accordance with UX/UI industry design standards. This useful and usable final product integrates clinical decision support with a patient decision aid. It promotes shared use by emergency clinicians and patients at the point of care within the emergency department context. This tablet computer app facilitates evidence-based conversations regarding CT in minor head injury. It is adaptable to individual clinician practice styles. The resultant tool includes a patient injury evaluator based on the Canadian CT Head Rule and provides patient specific risks using pictographs with natural frequencies and cues for discussion about patient concerns. CONCLUSIONS: This tool was designed to align evidence-based practices about CT in minor head injury patients. It establishes trust, empowers active participation, and addresses patient concerns and uncertainty about their condition. We hypothesize that, when implemented, the Concussion or Brain Bleed app will support-not hinder-the clinician-patient relationship, safely reduce CT use, and improve the patient experience of care.

Behavioral and Environmental Explanations of Elevated Blood Lead Levels in Immigrant Children and Children of Immigrants.

Immigrant/refugee children sometimes have substantially higher blood lead levels (BLLs) than US-born children in similar environments. We try to understand why, by exploring the relationship between immigration status of mother and the BLLs of US-born children. We compared BLLs of children born in Michigan to immigrant and non-immigrant parents, using the Michigan database of BLL tests for 2002-2005, which includes the child's race, Medicaid eligibility and address. We added census data on socio-demographic/housing characteristics of the child's block group, and information about parents. Low parental education, single parent households, mothers' smoking and drinking, all increase the child's BLL. However, immigrant parents had fewer characteristics associated with high BLL than US born parents, and their children had lower BLLs than children of US-born mothers. Our findings suggest that prior findings of higher BLLs among immigrant/refugee children probably result from them starting life in high-lead environments.

Understanding Overuse of Computed Tomography for Minor Head Injury in the Emergency Department: A Triangulated Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Overuse of computed tomography (CT) for minor head injury continues despite developed and rigorously validated clinical decision rules like the Canadian CT Head Rule (CCHR). Adherence to this sensitive and specific rule could decrease the number of CT scans performed in minor head injury by 35%. But in practice, the CCHR has failed to reduce testing, despite its accurate performance. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to identify nonclinical, human factors that promote or inhibit the appropriate use of CT in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with minor head injury. METHODS: This was a qualitative study in three phases, each with interview guides developed by a multidisciplinary team. Subjects were recruited from patients treated and released with minor head injuries and providers in an urban academic ED and a satellite community ED. Focus groups of patients (four groups, 22 subjects total) and providers (three groups, 22 subjects total) were conducted until thematic saturation was reached. The findings from the focus groups were triangulated with a cognitive task analysis, including direct observation in the ED (>150 hours), and individual semistructured interviews using the critical decision method with four senior physician subject matter experts. These experts are recognized by their peers for their skill in safely minimizing testing while maintaining patient safety and engagement. Focus groups and interviews were audio recorded and notes were taken by two independent note takers. Notes were entered into ATLAS.ti and analyzed using the constant comparative method of grounded theory, an iterative coding process to determine themes. Data were double-coded and examined for discrepancies to establish consensus. RESULTS: Five core domains emerged from the analysis: establishing trust, anxiety (patient and provider), constraints related to ED practice, the influence of others, and patient expectations. Key themes within these domains included patient engagement, provider confidence and experience, ability to identify and manage patient anxiety, time constraints, concussion knowledge gap, influence of health care providers, and patient expectations to get a CT. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high-quality evidence informing use of CT in minor head injury, multiple factors influence the decision to obtain CT in practice. Identifying and disseminating approaches and designing systems that help clinicians establish trust and manage uncertainty within the ED context could optimize CT use in minor head injury.

Back to the Bedside: Developing a Bedside Aid for Concussion and Brain Injury Decisions in the Emergency Department.

CONTEXT: Current information-rich electronic health record (EHR) interfaces require large, high-resolution screens running on desktop computers. This interface compromises the provider's already limited time at the bedside by physically separating the patient from the doctor. The case study presented here describes a patient-centered clinical decision support (CDS) design process that aims to bring the physician back to the bedside by integrating a patient decision aid with CDS for shared use by the patient and provider on a touchscreen tablet computer for deciding whether or not to obtain a CT scan for minor head injury in the emergency department, a clinical scenario that could benefit from CDS but has failed previous implementation attempts. CASE DESCRIPTION: This case study follows the user-centered design (UCD) approach to build a bedside aid that is useful and usable, and that promotes shared decision-making between patients and their providers using a tablet computer at the bedside. The patient-centered decision support design process focuses on the prototype build using agile software development, but also describes the following: (1) the requirement gathering phase including triangulated qualitative research (focus groups and cognitive task analysis) to understand current challenges, (2) features for patient education, the physician, and shared decision-making, (3) system architecture and technical requirements, and (4) future plans for formative usability testing and field testing. LESSONS LEARNED: We share specific lessons learned and general recommendations from critical insights gained in the patient-centered decision support design process about early stakeholder engagement, EHR integration, external expert feedback, challenges to two users on a single device, project management, and accessibility. CONCLUSIONS: Successful implementation of this tool will require seamless integration into the provider's workflow. This protocol can create an effective interface for shared decision-making and safe resource reduction at the bedside in the austere and dynamic clinical environment of the ED and is generalizable for these purposes in other clinical environments as well.

Individual and contextual determinants of resident-on-resident abuse in nursing homes: a random sample telephone survey of adults with an older family member in a nursing home.

Few empirical investigations of elder abuse in nursing homes address the frequency and determinants of resident-on-resident abuse (RRA). A random sample of 452 adults with an older adult relative, ≥65 years of age, in a nursing home completed a telephone survey regarding elder abuse experienced by that elder family member. Using a Linear Structural Relations (LISREL) modeling design, the study examined the association of nursing home resident demographic characteristics (e.g., age, gender), health and behavioral characteristics (e.g., diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease, Activities of Daily Living (ADLs), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs), types of staff abuse (e.g., physical, emotional), and factors beyond the immediate nursing home setting (e.g., emotional closeness of resident with family members) with RRA. Mplus statistical software was used for structural equation modeling. Main findings indicated that resident-on-resident mistreatment of elderly nursing home residents is associated with the age of the nursing home resident, all forms of staff abuse, all ADLs and IADLs, and emotional closeness of the older adult to the family.

Strategies for dealing with missing data in clinical trials: from design to analysis.

Randomized clinical trials are the gold standard for evaluating interventions as randomized assignment equalizes known and unknown characteristics between intervention groups. However, when participants miss visits, the ability to conduct an intent-to-treat analysis and draw conclusions about a causal link is compromised. As guidance to those performing clinical trials, this review is a non-technical overview of the consequences of missing data and a prescription for its treatment beyond the typical analytic approaches to the entire research process. Examples of bias from incorrect analysis with missing data and discussion of the advantages/disadvantages of analytic methods are given. As no single analysis is definitive when missing data occurs, strategies for its prevention throughout the course of a trial are presented. We aim to convey an appreciation for how missing data influences results and an understanding of the need for careful consideration of missing data during the design, planning, conduct, and analytic stages.

Undertreatment of tobacco use relative to other chronic conditions.

OBJECTIVES: We compared the likelihood that a tobacco user would receive treatment with the likelihood that an adult with another common chronic condition would receive treatment for that condition at an office visit. METHODS: We analyzed data from the 2005-2007 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey to compare the proportion of US office visits at which tobacco users and individuals with hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, asthma, or depression received condition-specific treatment. We calculated the odds that a visit for a comparison condition would result in treatment relative to a visit for tobacco dependence. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2007, 38, 004 patient visits involved at least 1 study condition. Tobacco users received medication at fewer visits (4.4%) than individuals with hypertension (57.4%), diabetes (46.2%), hyperlipidemia (47.1%), asthma (42.6%), and depression (53.3%). In multivariate analyses, the odds for pharmacological treatment of these disorders relative to tobacco use were, for hypertension, 32.8; diabetes, 20.9; hyperlipidemia, 16.5; asthma, 22.1; and depression, 24.0 (all Ps < .001). Patients with hypertension, diabetes, or hyperlipidemia were also more likely to receive behavioral counseling. CONCLUSIONS: Alternate models of engagement may be needed to enhance use of effective treatments for tobacco use.