Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost / Modelo de estabilização dos meios de subsistência dos pomares nas margens do Lago Urmia contra as geadas do final da primavera

Despite the adverse effects of late spring frost on the ecological and economic impact on agriculture, the management of these events are poorly investigated. Therefore, the grounded theory was used for extracting the livelihood stabilization model of orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frosts. The statistical population of this study in the qualitative part included 22 experts in the field of horticulture. In the quantitative study, they included all orchardists in the villages along with Lake Urmia, comprising 341 people, of which 236 were randomly selected. By carefully examining and linking the concepts and subcategories, the most important subcategories that were included six subcategories. The results of all calculated goodness-of-fit indexes (chi-square [P > 0.01], RMSEA = 0.000, NFI = 0.95, CFI = 0.91, and GFI = 0.92) showed the model provided an excellent fit for the data. Standardized regression coefficients showed that interfering factors had the greatest impact on the livelihood of orchardists against late spring frosts (ß = 0.47). Also, the background factors (ß = 0.43) and causal factors (ß = 0.39) were found to affect the livelihood of the orchardists in encountering late spring frost. The results of multiple square correlations of dependent variables also indicated that about 41% of the livelihood variance of small-scale orchardists was explained by the predictor variables (i.e. causal conditions, background factors and interfering factors). The findings of this study can assist policymakers, planners and relevant managers while paying more attention to orchardists in the region, so as to support decisions in order to achieve sustainable development.

Apesar dos efeitos adversos das geadas do final da primavera no impacto ecológico e econômico na agricultura, o manejo desses eventos é pouco investigado. Portanto, a teoria fundamentada foi utilizada para extrair o modelo de estabilização dos meios de subsistência dos pomares nas margens do Lago Urmia contra as geadas do final da primavera. A população estatística deste estudo na parte qualitativa incluiu 22 especialistas na área de horticultura. O estudo quantitativo incluiu todos os fruticultores nas aldeias junto ao Lago Urmia, compreendendo 341 pessoas, das quais 236 foram selecionadas aleatoriamente. Ao examinar cuidadosamente e vincular os conceitos e subcategorias, as subcategorias mais importantes que foram incluídas em outras 6 subcategorias. Os resultados de todos os índices de qualidade de ajuste calculados (qui-quadrado [P > 0,01], RMSEA = 0,000, NFI = 0,95, CFI = 0,91 e GFI = 0,92) mostraram que o modelo forneceu um excelente ajuste para os dados. Os coeficientes de regressão padronizados mostraram que os fatores interferentes tiveram o maior impacto sobre a subsistência dos pomares contra as geadas do final da primavera (ß = 0,47). Além disso, descobriu-se que os fatores de fundo (ß = 0,43) e os fatores causais (ß = 0,39) afetam o sustento dos pomares ao enfrentarem geadas no final da primavera. Os resultados de múltiplas correlações quadradas de variáveis dependentes também indicaram que cerca de 41% da variância dos meios de subsistência de pequenos pomares foi explicada pelas variáveis preditoras, ou seja, condições causais, fatores de fundo e fatores interferentes. Os resultados deste estudo podem auxiliar os formuladores de políticas, planejadores e gestores relevantes, dando mais atenção aos pomares da região, de modo a apoiar as decisões a fim de alcançar o desenvolvimento sustentável.

A comprehensive sustainable development framework; community capitals and village-cooperative initiative / Um quadro abrangente de desenvolvimento sustentável; capitais comunitários e iniciativa aldeia-cooperativa

Considering the cooperative sector capabilities in organizing rural people, primarily focusing on empowering manpower and adopting a sustainable approach to basic resources (water and soil), village-cooperative initiative has emerged as a new concept by registering and forming 4565 new cooperatives in Iran's rural regions. The present research which was conducted in two qualitative and quantitative phases designed a new model by integrating the new village-cooperative approach along with the sustainable livelihood's framework theory. The study sample of the qualitative phase included 32 theorists of the village-cooperative initiative. To analyze the data, the grounded theory and three-step process of open coding, axial coding and selective coding were used using MAXqda18 software. Finally, a paradigm model was designed whose most important components included causal conditions (shocks and seasonal conditions), contextual conditions (trends and governmental support), intervening conditions (control and market development), central categories (sustainable livelihoods with a village- cooperative approach), strategies (coping and adaptation) and consequences (creating jobs, establishing cooperatives, supporting smart agriculture and strengthening social capital). The statistical quantitative phase population consisted of cooperatives members in the village-cooperative initiative (N=405), being selected through Cochran's formula with proportional sampling method summing up to198 people from 5 provinces. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity and reliability were confirmed. The Bayesian structural equation modeling was used to analyze the data. The results of the research quantitative phase showed that the variables of financial capital, physical capital, social capital, coping and adaptation strategies, human capital and natural capital were the most effective variables on village-cooperative initiative members' sustainable livelihoods, respectively. Finally, a hybrid model based on the qualitative and quantitative studies was designed and suggestions were made; for instance, the creation of suitable grounds for off-farm activities such as rural industries and ecotourism.

Considerando as capacidades do setor cooperativo na organização da população rural, focando principalmente na capacitação de mão de obra e na adoção de uma abordagem sustentável para os recursos básicos (água e solo), a iniciativa de cooperativa de aldeia surgiu como um novo conceito ao registrar e formar 4.565 novas cooperativas nas regiões rurais do Irã. A presente pesquisa, que foi conduzida em duas fases qualitativas e quantitativas, projetou um novo modelo integrando a nova abordagem cooperativa de aldeia junto com a teoria da estrutura de subsistência sustentável. A amostra do estudo da fase qualitativa incluiu 32 teóricos da iniciativa vila-cooperativa. Para analisar os dados, a teoria fundamentada e o processo de três etapas de codificação aberta, codificação axial e codificação seletiva foram usados o software MAXqda18. Finalmente, um modelo de paradigma foi desenhado, cujos componentes mais importantes incluíam condições causais (choques e condições sazonais), condições contextuais (tendências e apoio governamental), condições intervenientes (controle e desenvolvimento de mercado), categorias centrais (subsistência sustentável com uma abordagem cooperativa de aldeia), estratégias (enfrentamento e adaptação) e consequências (criação de empregos, estabelecimento de cooperativas, apoio à agricultura inteligente e fortalecimento do capital social). A população da fase quantitativa estatística consistiu de cooperados na iniciativa vila-cooperativa (N = 405), sendo selecionados através da fórmula de Cochran com método de amostragem proporcional totalizando 198 pessoas de cinco províncias. A ferramenta de coleta de dados foi um questionário elaborado pelo pesquisador cuja validade e confiabilidade foram confirmadas. A modelagem de equações estruturais bayesianas foi utilizada para analisar os dados. Os resultados da fase quantitativa da pesquisa mostraram que as variáveis de capital financeiro, capital físico, capital social, estratégias de enfrentamento e adaptação, capital humano e capital natural foram as variáveis mais eficazes na subsistência sustentável dos membros da iniciativa cooperativa de aldeia, respectivamente. Finalmente, um modelo híbrido baseado nos estudos qualitativos e quantitativos foi desenhado e sugestões foram feitas; por exemplo, a criação de terrenos adequados para atividades não agrícolas, como indústrias rurais e ecoturismo.

A comprehensive sustainable development framework; community capitals and village-cooperative initiative.

Considering the cooperative sector capabilities in organizing rural people, primarily focusing on empowering manpower and adopting a sustainable approach to basic resources (water and soil), village-cooperative initiative has emerged as a new concept by registering and forming 4565 new cooperatives in Iran's rural regions. The present research which was conducted in two qualitative and quantitative phases designed a new model by integrating the new village-cooperative approach along with the sustainable livelihood's framework theory. The study sample of the qualitative phase included 32 theorists of the village-cooperative initiative. To analyze the data, the grounded theory and three-step process of open coding, axial coding and selective coding were used using MAXqda18 software. Finally, a paradigm model was designed whose most important components included causal conditions (shocks and seasonal conditions), contextual conditions (trends and governmental support), intervening conditions (control and market development), central categories (sustainable livelihoods with a village- cooperative approach), strategies (coping and adaptation) and consequences (creating jobs, establishing cooperatives, supporting smart agriculture and strengthening social capital). The statistical quantitative phase population consisted of cooperatives members in the village-cooperative initiative (N=405), being selected through Cochran's formula with proportional sampling method summing up to198 people from 5 provinces. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity and reliability were confirmed. The Bayesian structural equation modeling was used to analyze the data. The results of the research quantitative phase showed that the variables of financial capital, physical capital, social capital, coping and adaptation strategies, human capital and natural capital were the most effective variables on village-cooperative initiative members' sustainable livelihoods, respectively. Finally, a hybrid model based on the qualitative and quantitative studies was designed and suggestions were made; for instance, the creation of suitable grounds for off-farm activities such as rural industries and ecotourism.

Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost.

Despite the adverse effects of late spring frost on the ecological and economic impact on agriculture, the management of these events are poorly investigated. Therefore, the grounded theory was used for extracting the livelihood stabilization model of orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frosts. The statistical population of this study in the qualitative part included 22 experts in the field of horticulture. In the quantitative study, they included all orchardists in the villages along with Lake Urmia, comprising 341 people, of which 236 were randomly selected. By carefully examining and linking the concepts and subcategories, the most important subcategories that were included six subcategories. The results of all calculated goodness-of-fit indexes (chi-square [P > 0.01], RMSEA = 0.000, NFI = 0.95, CFI = 0.91, and GFI = 0.92) showed the model provided an excellent fit for the data. Standardized regression coefficients showed that interfering factors had the greatest impact on the livelihood of orchardists against late spring frosts (ß = 0.47). Also, the background factors (ß = 0.43) and causal factors (ß = 0.39) were found to affect the livelihood of the orchardists in encountering late spring frost. The results of multiple square correlations of dependent variables also indicated that about 41% of the livelihood variance of small-scale orchardists was explained by the predictor variables (i.e. causal conditions, background factors and interfering factors). The findings of this study can assist policymakers, planners and relevant managers while paying more attention to orchardists in the region, so as to support decisions in order to achieve sustainable development.